Actually the difference is fairly significant. If we assign the villain a top 20% range our equity with JJ is + given the above flop (~52%) but with TT is a little less than 47%.
So, am I to take it you guys are willing to call any reasonable bet (+/- 1/2 pot) from villain here and if so doesn't that imply you will c/c the turn with no scary cards showing yet still unimproved? And the river as well?
For me, I would rather be pushing this hand at the flop, than getting dragged through this hand. More often than not, a c-bet takes this down. When it doesn't, it usually ends up with a reraise from villain, which none of the folks here would call, except as a total bluff. Rumor has it there are one or two bluffers running rampant .....
What does a cbet accomplish here? He will only fold a hand that we beat, so if we cbet we're allowing our opponent to not make a mistake. On the other hand, if we check he can make a mistake by betting with a worse hand/bluff. Since we "win" when our opponents make mistakes and since checking is the only way to induce that mistake here, checking must be the correct play.
If we know he won't bet without an A, check-folding is the obvious play but since he'll sometimes bet with a hand worse than ours check-calling this flop should yield the best value.
Sorry DJ I think we get more info by check-calling than cbetting and we risk the same # of chips.
Which line tells us more about our opponents strength (assume a blank turn card):
1) Cbet, opponent calls, check turn, opponent bets - (Is he really strong or does he think we've given up after a cbet and he can steal?)
2) Check flop, he bets, we call, check turn, he bets - (In this scenario he's been the aggressor twice so I can give an him more credit for the A and fold)
In the cbet scenario our opponent has taken 1 passive action (calling the flop cbet) and 1 aggressive action (betting the turn when you checked).
In the check-call scenario he's taken 2 aggressive actions and should more often than not be credited with an Ace.
I don't think check-folding here is a huge mistake but I do think check-calling should make us more $$ overall.
His range for betting when we check is (usually) larger than his range for calling a bet.
standard wa/wb flop play
no. Unless we have additional reads we can fold to a turn bet. We are investing the same amount but as mentioned the ranges have shifted vastly. If we follow your line, our cbet loses that extra flop bet that worse hands make. What happens when we bet and are flat called? Then we check turn and get bet into? I punish a lot of people who try to take your line that way. I'll flat call the flop in position with marginal holdings against players who cbet a lot and then bet at the turn if they check it. Most of the time it works. I don't mind when people I'm playing against do it, it's free money for me. Taking the C/C line on the flop just could easily be a slowplay or it could be a hand like we have. Our opponent can't double barrel this too often against us with a worse hand and as mentioned the river play is read-dependent, with my default play probably calling if he checked the turn.
So what happens when you run into a hand like AT, who c-bets the flop, then checks the turn for pot control after you float ? He has now "induced a bluff" from you with a much stronger hand than JJ or TT.
I think the whole "wa/wb" concept gets carried way too far. In fact, in this case, it isn't even applicable, since there are bad cards (overs) for us on the turn (even more so w TT).
Well, yes, but no.This is the whole "gap" concept: you need a stronger hand to call than to bet or raise. So your bet should give you MORE information than a check-call, as his hand is (theoretically) stronger, even though the action is a 'passive' instead of aggressive one.
Well, yes, but no.
The gap concept applies to him in this case. He needs a better hand to call with than to bet with, therefore if we have to put in $5 on the flop, it's better if he bet it, than if we did. See what I mean?
Right, that's how I meant it: HE needs a better hand to call. But I don't follow as to why that makes it better for him to be betting in the context of gaining information.
As I said, I'm willing to sacrifice equity here in order to end the hand with the pot. I DON'T want a smaller middle pair betting the at me and putting me in a guessing situation where I just want to see the river as cheaply as possible. In other words, I don't want to induce bluffs with a marginal hand such as this.
Sorry zach, but your logic makes little to no sense to me.