If you're playing 200nl online, you probably don't need to worry about your hourly. That thinking is more along the lines of a micro player and it depends on how many tables and your ability to select profitable seats and tables. At 200nl, you're gonna be looking to make 5 big blinds or so per 100 hands as a solid player. Presumably you can easily get in 250 hands per hour if you're at that level, so you'd be looking at $25/hour, but again, that's not really going to be your focus because you'll be better off breaking it down to bb's/100 over a bigger sample due to what the variance is going to do to your hourly rate from day-to-day, week-to-week.
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"In the long run there's no luck in poker, but the short run is longer than most people know." -Rick Bennet
imo: For good player (per level) half the income, for reasonable player the income is about 1/3rd of calculated.
So if one day I’m good at NL10 I should be making about 5 dollars per hour, if at NL25 10 dollars per hour. After that I think it gets quite hard to get to good category and reasonable category is what is most likely if ever, making income at NL100 for most around 13 dollars.
If we assume live NL200 is similar to NL5 online we are expecting 17bb winrate, 20 hands per hour (breaks and all), 6.8 dollars per hour if you are very good. If we assume live is more like 2NL double that hourly.
EDIT: I just notised a flaw in my thinking that alters results somewhat. These win rates by blackrain are calculated while multi tabling, in live you are single tabling and have time and data to really know your enemy.
Sometimes winning and sometimes playing 6max zoom NL5 micro player with passive tight style.
Average players lose money. Most players lose money. Only a very small percentage of players can beat thee game and the rake. That said, a good player is going to make around 4-8 BB/100 hands online. 10-15 bb/hour live
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The blackrain79 source braveslice posted is really good. I would add that online win rates will generally be much lower than live win rates. The micros (i.e. $0.01/0.02) are the lowest stakes online and are a training ground. Many of those who make it to $1/2 are pretty solid by the time they get there and not as many people just jump in. However, at the casino the minimum is usually $1/2 and the newest of the newbies still start there.
You can see how moving up in stakes drastically increases the skill level you are facing and how that in return impacts your hourly. Also his calculation are for a very experienced Micro/Small Stake player. It requires avoidance of Tilt and table/seat selection. So starting out you hope to make a third of the winrate estimates.