How to aasess a RIT situation

[Gorblimey]

Are there established guidelines or parameters of when it's optimal to run it twice? I made a set Queens on the vs the Villain's suited Big Slick; the board being one suited. I ended up declining the offer because I didn't understand it. Upon reflection, I'm worried I made a wrong decision. I hope someone can provide a little in depth analysis.

 

[LetterRip]

Villain needs runner runner (AA, KK, BDFD, BDGSD) to win. On a flop of Qs7h2d he has a 4.3% chance of winning. If you run it once 19/20 times you will win, 1 in 20 he will win.

If you run it twice, 19*19/400 = 90.25% you will win both times (thus the full pot)
1*1/400 = .25% he will win both times
38/400 = 9.5% he will win half and you will win half.

Your EV is the same either way, only your variance changes. Running it twice you lose a full pot far less often but a half pot much more often. So it is your personal view of variance tolerance.

 

[EarnDAStack]

Running it twice is more about your risk tolerance than it is about gaining EV. Personally I don't really find a reason to run it twice. Play at stakes that losing an all in shouldn't effect you in the slightest and you wont have that problem (That's also in general where you should be playing anyway so you play your best)

Overall I suggest you either do it or don't do it but don't pick and choose when to do it. You'll just end up tormenting yourself over the outcome for no difference in EV

 

[Gorblimey]

Input from both responders is greatly appreciated.