Gutless or Smart?

[RammerJammer]

I'm in the $10 NLHE tourney on UB. $3,000 GTD and 1st pays over $500. Top 30 places pay off. I have gone through an extended card drought and the blinds/antes have whittled my stack down to 2500 chips. 600/300 blinds with a 75 ante. I'm sitting 31st out of 33, one slot out of the money.

I catch KJ offsuit in the small blind. Two limpers, no raises. I raise to a modest 2xBB (1200), hoping I'll at least chase the BB, and maybe one of the limpers. Big blind doesn't buy it and raises enough to put me all-in. The button calls on the other side of me.

I'm now down to less than one more betting round's worth of chips and I'm one spot out of the money. I consider the size of the pot (large enough to vault me back into the top 15) and the amount of time I've already invested in the tournament (2-1/2+ hours) and whether walking away empty-handed is worth playing the KJ.

Agonizing decision, but I fold. BB turns over AQ and button turns over A8. Board fills up KJ844. Button wins with 8's & 4's. My KJ was solid gold. That's the closest I get to any more cards and eventually get anted out with rags. Collect my entry plus $3 and change.

My head tells me I made the "smart" play, but my poker gut tells me I'm a big girly-man for mucking that hand. How would you guys have played it here?

 

[twizzybop]

Well you aren't a fortune teller and you made the correct call.

 

[xdmanx007]

Well imho for what its worth in that spot I call chip stack meant first playable hand you push it all. Reason being was 2.5 hours worth 3 bucks? I go for the wins, a lot of very good folks here will tell you, you did the right thing you got SOMETHING instead of nothing. Hard to say they are wrong I just think tournies are about final tables and wins.

 

[buckster436]

In a spot like that i would have pushed it all in and take my chances, you were low on chips and had some chips in the pot already so i would have gone for it and let the luck take over from there. Thats only my opinion, sometimes it works and sometimes you get busted out, and thats why they say THATS POKER. In that case you would have won the hand, but thats the tough choices we have to make in poker. I have probally busted out more times than i have won in a situation like that so i know how you felt, do i or dont i. better luck next time

buckster436

 

[IrishDave]

While I'm more conservative than you in most cases (remember the tiny flush I folded to your 2 pair), I probably would have called given the chip stack and the urgency. This being said, you analyzed the situation, made the call, and it was the correct decision for you. Don't agonize and don't look back. BTW, welcome back, haven't seen you post in a while...

 

[Grumbledook]

Well the raise was a bit puny for starters.

Gotta agree that your better off getting a big stack and going for the top 3 places. The difference it makes to get fewer bigger wins should more than make up for the times you miss the money.

Still think the biggest problem was the size of that raise though. Given the size of stack you had you pretty much had to call if you were going to make that bet, so you might as well have just shoved it all in anyway.

Otherwise you would have been wise to just call, which still would have left you a bit on the low side forcing some steals in the next orbit. Or just folding and conserving the chips.

Personally I would have probably just gone all in and if I lose I lose ;]

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You have half your stack invested, folding leaves you with just over 2BBs, the pot will be over 8k if you call for ~1300 more. Easy call. Sure you could run into AA/AK/KK/KQ/QQ and be a huge underdog, but there are many times more hands people will be raising with at this stage that you're ahead of (okay, there's not many of these) or are only slightly behind... even if the other guys had turned their cards face-up I'd still be insta-calling here (edit: this doesn't really have the effect it was meant to on reflection considering you would know you have live cards and the other players share aces, thus probably making the call easier).

When you're playing close to the bubble you have a choice to make, and it seems you chose the "I don't care if I don't have a realistic chance of winning the thing, I just want my money back" option. In the long run it pays to play with the aim of winning the whole thing in bubble play - sure you will suffer some heartbreaking bubble bust-outs, but you'll end up with a healthy stack at the final table and a big payout quite often too.

 

[Crippler450]

Most people will reply that they would have gone all-in (hindsight is 20/20) but I think you made the right choice. You chose to stay until you made it to the money before taking a chance which could put you out of the tournament. Maybe $3 wasnt worth the 2.5 hours, but its more than you would have gotten if you would have gone all in and lost (Which usually would have happened against those other 2 hands). I think you were smart, not gutless.

 

[Freakakanus]

It was the right move that caught you in the butt. The only thing wrong I can see is that you were going to have the opportunity to triple up instead of just double so it might have been worth the risk.

 

[RammerJammer]

In the couple of hours since my original post, I've reached a comfort zone with that play. If I'd caught anything bigger than KJ offsuit, any pair at all, or if the button hadn't called the BB's raise in front of me, I'd have gone all in. I agree with Grumbledook that it was an all-or-nothing deal given my chip stack. If there's anything I should have done differently, it would have been to try and limp in. If the BB checks, I stay in the pot and, obviously, I win. If he raises me anyway, I fold to stay alive. But it was pointless to lead with a small raise for half my chips.

And the education continues...

 

[Arjonius]

I don't like the small raise in this situation. Pushing has the benefit of eliminating further decisions, and also of having a better chance to win the hand right away.

My second choice would be to limp. If BB checks, four of you see the flop. Not great, but easier to get away from the hand if you miss. If BB raises and you were going to fold anyway, then it only cost you 300.

As for the small raise, some opponents might even take it as an invitation to go over the top. And hoping the limpers will fold is well, hopeful. Some will, but they probably shouldn't.

Looks like you reached a similar conclusion during the time I was interrupted after starting to reply.

 

[Four Dogs]

OK, I've just finished reading Dan Harringtons new book Harrington on Hold 'em vol. II and the first 1/2 the book deals with this exact situation. He breaks apart your tournament health into 5 zones based on your M, which is how your stack compares to the size of the blinds and antes. This gives you an idea of how many more rounds you can survive without making a bet. statements in quotation marks are exact quotes from the book. All others are paraphrased.
Green: You have 20 or more times the pot.
Yellow: 10-20 -"You lose the ability to play conservative poker"
Orange: 6-10 -You can no longer make complex moves which require a larger stack to succeed such as coming over the top to keep the button from stealing the blinds.
Red: 1-5 - "You've lost the ability to make a bet other than an all-in bet."
The Dead Zone- Less than the pot. " You appear to be alive but your not. Your a pokerwraith, not a player anymore, but a gnat to be swatted....You should never let yourself get to The Dead Zone by having your chips blinded away."
Dan recommends that long before you arive at this point you should look for your first good chance to go All-In. Preferably as first in. He calls this "First In Vigorish". The idea is to steal the blinds with a less than premium hand, which you don't have the luxury of waiting for.
With each pot at $1650.00, assuming a table of 10, you are cleary on the verge of becoming a pokerwraith with an M of about 1.5. Either give up now and don't bet again till you break the bubble or go all-in. A call here makes no sense at all, and a chance to tripple up and get back in the hunt with a pretty strong hand seems appealing. Sorry 'Jammer, I gotta vote girly-man here.

 

[robwhufc]

Big girly man, big girly man!!!!! Well you've already answered your own post, but smallest stack on the table is desperation time. Every time you enter a hand you can expect to get raised (1,000 is a lot to you, but nothing to opponent if they've got 30,000). As you now know, you can't pull out once you go in, so ALL IN! I personally wouldn't even worry about cards - if chance of tripling (is that a word?) up with blinds looming, i'd play anything and hope for the best.

 

[ZacW]

It all comes down to the, first guy to jump, fell to his death scenario.

Were you watching the people raising you before the hand? Their patterns? Alot more variables need to be considered than card and position opportunities. DOn't be afraid to take notes on the guys you're supposed to be taking money from.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Yea, gotta push here man. Your hands are tied, as your stack becomes smaller, your options become increasingly limited. You were at the 2 good cards and I push stage.
KJ good enough under the circumstances... Push it.

Bill

 

[tenbob]

Def shoulfd have called the all in bet. Played about 2 months ago in a live game tourney, in 4th (3 players get paid) and i had AK, raised and big stack TOLD me he had pocket kings and will put me all in, and thats what happened, and i lost. But i only had 2BB left and if I had won I stood a chance. Would have had 6BB, and gotten ,me into 2nd.

Sometimes its all about taking a risk.

 

[woodsy44]

Id hav gone for it as if you are that shortstacked you need to go all in with the first good hand.

you get

 

[Godfather7769]

Personally i think you did a good job.

 

[lightning36]

It all depends on what your goals are. I think that I have been changing my strategy lately. I used to value getting in the money - just to be in the money. Now I am taking more risks toward the end - and can oftentimes be found on the wrong side of the bubble. lol

 

[titans4ever]

I think your choices were to limp and hope to see the flop or push all in. Limping may have worked since there was only one more to act. You catch the flop then push.

A raise of half your stack is questionable unless your willing to be reraised and push it in. Your bet was not enough to scare anyone off and then you opened yourself up for the reraise.

You still had enough that you may have taken the pot right there by going all in. You then would have made them decide if they want to call. That close to the money, people will play tight and might have folded that hand.

 

[Four Dogs]

I think your missing the point. This has nothing to do with the $10 and everything to do with winning strategy.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

You shameless limper!! You went against your name. :slug:

I would have either limped or all in at that stage. A raise of that amount isn't going to scare anyone out that far along. The smell of blood is in the water and the sharks are going to look to feed on the weakest, (you). As Xdman said, its the final table or nothing.