Stu_Ungar
Legend
Silver Level
I decided to write this because I was reading something from Harrington which was based on the old idea of Sklansky bucks and it really made sense to me.
Harrington said that when two skilled players play, neither really does anything particularly special. Its not that the winner does something that the other is not capable of, but rather that the loser makes more errors than the winner.
It may seem obvious, but its meaning is slightly subtler. The winner doesn’t really make that many great decisions, rather the loser makes more bad decisions.
So that got me thinking.. where in my game can I force my opponent to make errors?
I thought about a simple drawing scenario and the results were surprising.
The simple modle is that I raise in middle position with AhJc , the button calls, the blinds fold.
I know the button plays a lot of drawing hands, he likes to play flushes and would usually have rereised with hands like AA- JJ
The flop comes Jd 6d 3c
I figure that my TPTK is good and that he will usually fold to a c-bet, if he does not then he is most likely on a flush draw.
So how do I proceed?
We all know that charging draws is a good idea… so I charge the draw.. but how much?
Well some people say ½ pot so lets charge him 1/2pot.
Preflop I raise 3BB, he calls, the blinds fold. So the pot is 7.5 BB
A half pot raise from me is 4BB giving him an 11.5 : 4 decision (about 2.9 : 1) he needs pot odds of 4:1 to call (actually 4.22 : 1) so he has made a mistake.. I am happy he is a donkey etc etc.
But how big is his mistake?
Well to justify calling 4BB, the pot needed to be about 16 BB ( this would give him his 4 : 1 odds needed )
The pot was 11.5BB and he needed 16BB to justify the call so his mistake was 4.5BB (16 – 11.5).
So calling is a mistake, it has a negative equity but its not that big of a mistake, its 4.5BB
If he folds then his EV is -3BB (the amount he has put in the pot so far)
So whilst his mistake of calling is bigger than that of folding, in real terms its not that much of a mistake. His net error is only 1.5BB more than the cost of folding
The Turn comes 2h and so I decide to charge him another ½ pot. The pot is now 15.5BB as he called preflop.
Now I bet 8BB. He is faced with a 23.5 : 8 call (2.9 : 1).
He would need a pot of 32BB to justify a call of 8BB so his error is 8.5BB (32 – 23.5). When we compare this figure to his investment in the pot so far, which is 7BB, we see that his error is again only 1.5BB.
Folding is the better option, but in reality its only marginally better than calling.
So lets go back to the flop and try a 2/3 pot bet.. lets see how much of an error that causes.
Preflop, the pot is 7.5BB and so now ill bet 6BB (2BB more than previously)
Now he is offered a 13.5 : 6 call (2.25 :1)
To call call a bet of 6BB he would need a pot of 24 to give him 4 : 1 odds. Here his mistake is 10.5. He has already invested 3BB so his net error becomes 7.5BB.
So when we bet ½ pot we paid 4bb and got a net error of 1.5BB, when we bet 2/3 pot we paid 6BB and caused a net error of 7.5BB…. that’s a lot more bang for your buck.
Lets now bet ¾ pot on the turn
Now the pot is 19.5BB (he calls 6BB for the pot of 13.5BB)
We bet 2/3 pot .. say 15BB. He is offered a 34.5 : 15 call (2.3: 1)
He needed a 60BB pot to give him his required 4 : 1 odds so his mistake is 25 .5BB!!! (60 – 34.5). He has put 9BB in the pot so his net error is 16.5BB.
So ½ pot ½ pot caused a net total error of 3BB and cost us 12BB
The ¾ pot ¾ pot caused a total net error of 24 BB and cost us 21BB
Is there a better way?
What about we bet only ½ pot and the ¾ pot on the turn?
Well from before, the half pot flop bet 4BB and causes him to make a 1.5BB net error, but it also swells the pot a little so now our ¾ pot bet will be bigger that a ¾ pot bet made on the flop.
Now on the turn the pot is 15.5BB.
He faces a ¾ pot bet of 12BB giving him a 27.5:12 call.
He needs a pot of 48 BB to justify his call so his error is 20.5BB!!! His investment in the pot so far has been 7BB, so his net error here is 13.5BB!!
His total net error is 15BB and we have spent 16BB inducing it.
Now this might seem like we get less of an error out of him than when we bet ¾ pot ¾ pot and that is true, but we have actually beaten him in a subtler way.
¾ pot ¾ pot builds a total pot on the river of 49.5 BB
½ pot ¾ pot builds a pot of 39.5 BB.
By betting a smaller amount on the flop, we aren’t really charging him much for his draw, but at the same time we are setting up a turn bet which will charge him heavily plus we are reducing the size of the total pot. Our hand is small, its TPTK.. but if he makes his, its a flush.
Not only do we charge him on the turn for his draw, but we also ensure that we don’t build a pot big enough to justify playing his hand in the first place (in essence we kick him in the nuts!!)
In fact we can take the idea a bit further.. we can actually offer him good odds on the flop, say betting 1/3 pot. (2.5BB) he gets his correct 4:1 odds so makes no mistake by calling.. but errors made on the flop are relatively small to those made on the turn. So we set him up for a big error on the turn and build a pot of 30.5BB by the river.. that’s a nice sized pot for our hand but a nasty one for his.. even if he wins, its not much to win with a flush.
So by betting 1/3 pot on the flop, we make a small error.. but in return we get to cheaply force our opponent to make a bigger error on the turn and build a pot that he wont be happy with.
Now remember back to the start of my ramblings.. the loser is the opponent who makes more errors. By adopting this kind of thinking and questioning not only what and why we do things, but also how big of an impact does it have on our opponent, we can think about coming up with better strategies to force bigger errors from our opponents.
Harrington said that when two skilled players play, neither really does anything particularly special. Its not that the winner does something that the other is not capable of, but rather that the loser makes more errors than the winner.
It may seem obvious, but its meaning is slightly subtler. The winner doesn’t really make that many great decisions, rather the loser makes more bad decisions.
So that got me thinking.. where in my game can I force my opponent to make errors?
I thought about a simple drawing scenario and the results were surprising.
The simple modle is that I raise in middle position with AhJc , the button calls, the blinds fold.
I know the button plays a lot of drawing hands, he likes to play flushes and would usually have rereised with hands like AA- JJ
The flop comes Jd 6d 3c
I figure that my TPTK is good and that he will usually fold to a c-bet, if he does not then he is most likely on a flush draw.
So how do I proceed?
We all know that charging draws is a good idea… so I charge the draw.. but how much?
Well some people say ½ pot so lets charge him 1/2pot.
Preflop I raise 3BB, he calls, the blinds fold. So the pot is 7.5 BB
A half pot raise from me is 4BB giving him an 11.5 : 4 decision (about 2.9 : 1) he needs pot odds of 4:1 to call (actually 4.22 : 1) so he has made a mistake.. I am happy he is a donkey etc etc.
But how big is his mistake?
Well to justify calling 4BB, the pot needed to be about 16 BB ( this would give him his 4 : 1 odds needed )
The pot was 11.5BB and he needed 16BB to justify the call so his mistake was 4.5BB (16 – 11.5).
So calling is a mistake, it has a negative equity but its not that big of a mistake, its 4.5BB
If he folds then his EV is -3BB (the amount he has put in the pot so far)
So whilst his mistake of calling is bigger than that of folding, in real terms its not that much of a mistake. His net error is only 1.5BB more than the cost of folding
The Turn comes 2h and so I decide to charge him another ½ pot. The pot is now 15.5BB as he called preflop.
Now I bet 8BB. He is faced with a 23.5 : 8 call (2.9 : 1).
He would need a pot of 32BB to justify a call of 8BB so his error is 8.5BB (32 – 23.5). When we compare this figure to his investment in the pot so far, which is 7BB, we see that his error is again only 1.5BB.
Folding is the better option, but in reality its only marginally better than calling.
So lets go back to the flop and try a 2/3 pot bet.. lets see how much of an error that causes.
Preflop, the pot is 7.5BB and so now ill bet 6BB (2BB more than previously)
Now he is offered a 13.5 : 6 call (2.25 :1)
To call call a bet of 6BB he would need a pot of 24 to give him 4 : 1 odds. Here his mistake is 10.5. He has already invested 3BB so his net error becomes 7.5BB.
So when we bet ½ pot we paid 4bb and got a net error of 1.5BB, when we bet 2/3 pot we paid 6BB and caused a net error of 7.5BB…. that’s a lot more bang for your buck.
Lets now bet ¾ pot on the turn
Now the pot is 19.5BB (he calls 6BB for the pot of 13.5BB)
We bet 2/3 pot .. say 15BB. He is offered a 34.5 : 15 call (2.3: 1)
He needed a 60BB pot to give him his required 4 : 1 odds so his mistake is 25 .5BB!!! (60 – 34.5). He has put 9BB in the pot so his net error is 16.5BB.
So ½ pot ½ pot caused a net total error of 3BB and cost us 12BB
The ¾ pot ¾ pot caused a total net error of 24 BB and cost us 21BB
Is there a better way?
What about we bet only ½ pot and the ¾ pot on the turn?
Well from before, the half pot flop bet 4BB and causes him to make a 1.5BB net error, but it also swells the pot a little so now our ¾ pot bet will be bigger that a ¾ pot bet made on the flop.
Now on the turn the pot is 15.5BB.
He faces a ¾ pot bet of 12BB giving him a 27.5:12 call.
He needs a pot of 48 BB to justify his call so his error is 20.5BB!!! His investment in the pot so far has been 7BB, so his net error here is 13.5BB!!
His total net error is 15BB and we have spent 16BB inducing it.
Now this might seem like we get less of an error out of him than when we bet ¾ pot ¾ pot and that is true, but we have actually beaten him in a subtler way.
¾ pot ¾ pot builds a total pot on the river of 49.5 BB
½ pot ¾ pot builds a pot of 39.5 BB.
By betting a smaller amount on the flop, we aren’t really charging him much for his draw, but at the same time we are setting up a turn bet which will charge him heavily plus we are reducing the size of the total pot. Our hand is small, its TPTK.. but if he makes his, its a flush.
Not only do we charge him on the turn for his draw, but we also ensure that we don’t build a pot big enough to justify playing his hand in the first place (in essence we kick him in the nuts!!)
In fact we can take the idea a bit further.. we can actually offer him good odds on the flop, say betting 1/3 pot. (2.5BB) he gets his correct 4:1 odds so makes no mistake by calling.. but errors made on the flop are relatively small to those made on the turn. So we set him up for a big error on the turn and build a pot of 30.5BB by the river.. that’s a nice sized pot for our hand but a nasty one for his.. even if he wins, its not much to win with a flush.
So by betting 1/3 pot on the flop, we make a small error.. but in return we get to cheaply force our opponent to make a bigger error on the turn and build a pot that he wont be happy with.
Now remember back to the start of my ramblings.. the loser is the opponent who makes more errors. By adopting this kind of thinking and questioning not only what and why we do things, but also how big of an impact does it have on our opponent, we can think about coming up with better strategies to force bigger errors from our opponents.
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