EV Question

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wildice13

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So here I have 2 hands that I have pulled from HM2, and EV is a subject which I am still fairly new to.

Here's the first hand:

poker stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2797304
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $14.34 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 15, 3B: 9, AF: 1.5, Hands: 4421
SB: $26.65 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 50, 3B: 50, AF: 1.0, Hands: 4
BB: $36.29 - VPIP: 100, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 1
UTG: $30.27 - VPIP: 11, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.5, Hands: 9
MP: $28.48 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 3.0, Hands: 13
CO: $25.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 10

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Jh Kh
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB raises to $2.50, BB calls $2.25, Hero calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.50) Tc Qd Th (3 players)
SB bets $3.58, BB folds, Hero raises to $11.84, SB calls $8.26

Turn: ($31.18) Ad (2 players)

River: ($31.18) 4c (2 players)

Final Pot: $31.18
Hero shows Jh Kh
SB shows 8c 8h
Hero wins $29.78
(Rake: $1.40)

So here it goes All-in on the flop where I have 57.9% equity against the 88. However the $EV difference on HM2 is -$12.53. From what I know I feel that I got it in good with this hand (although a bit sketchy on the paired board) bu the $EV difference tells me otherwise. Whereas in the following hand I clearly get it in bad with jacks against aces preflop 80/20 dog, yet HM2 says that the $EV difference is +$9.44.

Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2797306
The DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $25.10 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 15, 3B: 9, AF: 1.5, Hands: 4421
SB: $277.82 - VPIP: 13, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 8
BB: $31.03 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 5
UTG: $30.44 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 8, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 13
MP: $84.62 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 6
CO: $29.62 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 25, 3B: 33, AF: 0.0, Hands: 4

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Js Jh
UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO raises to $2.75, Hero raises to $8.25, 4 folds, CO raises to $29.62, Hero calls $16.85 all in

Flop: ($52.05) 6c 7c 9d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: ($52.05) 3h (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($52.05) 5d (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $52.05
Hero shows Js Jh
CO shows Ac Ah
CO wins $50.05
(Rake: $2.00)

Can anyone help me out by showing me how the number are broken down for each hand, and why it appears that getting it in bad in that situation with jacks was good on average in the long run, whereas the other where i had more equity when it went in, is bad on average in the long run?

Many Thanks
 
Bob23bk

Bob23bk

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When you have 57.9% equity (KJ above) your EV should be 57.9% of the pot. When you win this hand though, you win 100% of the pot. In doing so you've created an '$EV difference' because you won more than your equity. You won a pot for 29.78 that you had 57.9% equity in, but 42.1% of the time you would not. To calculate $EV difference in this hand is easy: 42.1% (villains equity) X $29.78 (pot) = $12.53 (the amount EV says you shouldn't have won).

Then you're dealt JJ just in time to run it into AA! Here you have 18.85% equity of the $50.05 pot: $9.44. You lose the pot so your $EV difference becomes -$9.44, the amount EV says you should have won that you didn't due to variance.

$EV difference can help you figure out how good/bad you're running... If the number is positive, variance is in your favor. Take it with a grain of salt hand by hand, but this can be very helpful over a large sample size.
 
starting_at_the_bottom

starting_at_the_bottom

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The numbers have been explained to you above, I just wanted to offer smething else you might want to consider.

Hand 1 is pretty bad -

88 is the bottom of his range. You say you were +ve against 88 but really this isnt what you should be considering. You need to be thinking against ranges. Against his calling range I feel you got it in bad.

Hand 2 is even worse than hand 1 -

You are getting in it in with no realistic chance of being ahead of anything. I have no notes on villain, but I would expect absolute best case you would be a race vs AK.
 
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wildice13

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The numbers have been explained to you above, I just wanted to offer smething else you might want to consider.

Hand 1 is pretty bad -

88 is the bottom of his range. You say you were +ve against 88 but really this isnt what you should be considering. You need to be thinking against ranges. Against his calling range I feel you got it in bad.

Hand 2 is even worse than hand 1 -

You are getting in it in with no realistic chance of being ahead of anything. I have no notes on villain, but I would expect absolute best case you would be a race vs AK.

this advice is absolute gold, thanks! i hadn't actually seen this reply but since dropping to 2nl.. where i should be playing, i've been thinking alot more in ranges.

after playing 15k hands since and reading a shit ton on here, it's really paid off both in terms of bankroll and tilt levels folding marginal hands to an ep raise when i'm in lp, mainly the dominated hands etc. like kj which i often played just because i have position.
 
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wildice13

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When you have 57.9% equity (KJ above) your EV should be 57.9% of the pot. When you win this hand though, you win 100% of the pot. In doing so you've created an '$EV difference' because you won more than your equity. You won a pot for 29.78 that you had 57.9% equity in, but 42.1% of the time you would not. To calculate $EV difference in this hand is easy: 42.1% (villains equity) X $29.78 (pot) = $12.53 (the amount EV says you shouldn't have won).

Then you're dealt JJ just in time to run it into AA! Here you have 18.85% equity of the $50.05 pot: $9.44. You lose the pot so your $EV difference becomes -$9.44, the amount EV says you should have won that you didn't due to variance.

$EV difference can help you figure out how good/bad you're running... If the number is positive, variance is in your favor. Take it with a grain of salt hand by hand, but this can be very helpful over a large sample size.

this helps tonnes too, thanks. i suppose it's my fault for ĵumping in without reading the guides properly, i always thought that the + or - figure told me that if it was a + then it's a profitable move in the long run. hence making alot of shitty plays dud to misinterpreting the data!! whoops

so am i also right in thinking that the allin ev line on the graph shouldnt be compared too closely to the net $ won line due to them being the result of a different amount of hands. and the actual best way to figure out how good you are running in allin ev terms would be to filter the hands that you d get all in at some point before the river and compare the net $won of these hands only vs the allin ev line?
 
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