Down straight draw in a multiway pot

portuga

portuga

Rising Star
Hi guys, I was in a spot another day, and while making my daily review I started to wonder if i did the best move, so I want to know your opinion about that. In this spot we have:

[SB] 21/14 | Cbet Flop 100%[4/4] (Ya, not a good sample...).
[BUT] 19/15

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players

SB: 99 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, hands: 1)
Hero (BB): 201.5 BB
UTG: 86 BB (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
UTG+1: 78.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
MP: 110.5 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 16)
MP+1: 258.5 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 16)
MP+2: 49 BB (VPIP: 14.81, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 54)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
BTN: 177 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 8

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

[P] Standard call, right.​
Flop: (9.5 BB, 3 players) 4 T 9
Hero checks, CO bets 4.5 BB, BTN raises to 10 BB, Hero calls 10 BB, CO calls 5.5 BB

[F] I dont think that make a Donk bet would be a good way to start, sice we probrably dont have fold equity on this board and we have a speculative hand. The equity on the FLOP should be something like this:


Board: 4T9
Equity Win Draw
MP2 30.02% 28.84% 1.18% { 8d7d }
MP3 32.82% 31.48% 1.34% { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }
CO 37.16% 35.94% 1.22% { TT-22, AJs-A7s, A5s-A4s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AJo-ATo, KJo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }


Now, considering that the CO is aggro and have a loose cbet range, and the BUT would have something like this as a 3bet range:

Board: 4T9
Equity Win Draw
MP2 27.35% 26.49% 0.86% { 8d7d }
MP3 32.40% 30.39% 2.01% { 88+, 44, A8s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, A8o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }
CO 40.25% 39.10% 1.15% { TT-99, 44, AJs-ATs, KJs-KTs, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, AJo-ATo, KJo, QJo, JTo, T9o }

We have 29% of POT ODDS. Assuming that the CO will call almost all the time, we would have 25% of POT ODDS, making a good call.
Turn: (39.5 BB, 3 players) 7
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

[T] Standard check.​
River: (39.5 BB, 3 players) J
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN checks

[R] Now my thoughts come out. What is the best move here (+EV)? Check/Call since we have the down straight or Bet/Fold, since we cant call a raise, but making a bet of 25%-30% we could get some calls of sets and two pairs.
Hero shows 7 8 (Straight, Jack High)
(Pre 29%, Flop 25%, Turn 21%)
CO mucks Q J (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 34%, Flop 38%, Turn 24%)
BTN mucks A T (One Pair, Tens)
(Pre 37%, Flop 37%, Turn 55%)
Hero wins 38 BB

Tks guys, GL all s2 :wink:.
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

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Raise that river value bet on the end as opponents likely to call good luck.
 
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