Determining a river shove semi bluff vs an actual made hand ?

quick

quick

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You know then deal.

You’ve flopped TPTK or even better, you’ve flopped a set or top two pair. You put out a value bet (or if the board is draw heavy, make it a bit bigger).

Your opponent calls, turn doesn’t bring any obvious draws so you pump up the value bet and they call.

River comes and suddenly your hand feels a bit vulnerable, but surely this opponent didn’t call pre, flop, and turn to catch runner runner straight or flush did they?

You don’t want to lose value if they check to you so you value bet your hand OR you’re first to act and don’t want to get too out of line so you check to them. Then BAM in either case they shove their entire stack and you’re left wondering ... are you miles ahead or did they suck out again?

This remains one of my biggest online cash game full ring leaks. Sometimes I call and see they had complete air and I win. Or they rivered a lower two pair or set and I coolered them a bit. But then other times we call and they show like Q9 off for their rivered runner runner straight or their 69s for their runner runner flush and you’re left staring at the felt.


So how do you find the fold button in these spots while at the same time not getting pushed off your solid but non-nutted hand?

I feel like it’s about 50/50 here, sometimes I call and have them crushed and other times I call and they’ve pulled off a miracle river.

So how do you make the right call esp in the micros where there’s a good mix of at least three or four thinking players like us here and a two to three ATC rec fish with one or two tom Dwan wannabes at every table ?
 
hugh blair

hugh blair

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It is a tough one you have to go with your batty instincts have you got fold equity how often does opponent bluff and use all information at your disposal with this one good luck:confused:

7d80485af9151d463b64d7e71ded1e5c.jpg
 
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Supmargy

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It's a good question but hard to answer without more information about the villain. If he's anknown I have no idea how to play this situation
 
M

MadPanic

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You should be paying attention to your opponents tendencies. If they go all-in with high frequency you could be up against anything and you could be best off trapping them with 2 pair of vetter. If your up against a rare shove from somebody. Your best have the nuts!!!
 
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Yoda_Priest_X_Napo

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It is so hard to give a general rule for this, because every environment and player is gonna be different, if you see these guys that call the flop with air take notes on him and type something like floats flop ATC or w/e. You can bluff these people a ton because they will not be able to continue with river barrels as often as they have to, or turn. When you just dont know, just look up your range, if your hand is at the top of your range you just have to call it most times.If you have AQ on A4KQ7 and you played the hand as 3 barrels then get raised its ok to fold this hand, its still 2 pair but you can have many stronger combos with your line.
 
quick

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It is so hard to give a general rule for this, because every environment and player is gonna be different, if you see these guys that call the flop with air take notes on him and type something like floats flop ATC or w/e. You can bluff these people a ton because they will not be able to continue with river barrels as often as they have to, or turn. When you just dont know, just look up your range, if your hand is at the top of your range you just have to call it most times.If you have AQ on A4KQ7 and you played the hand as 3 barrels then get raised its ok to fold this hand, its still 2 pair but you can have many stronger combos with your line.

Thanks for the feedback. It's tricky as you said each player is different. But for your AQ example, wouldn't it still be opponent dependent, a lot of times A4, KQ, A7, K4, Q7 are raising here esp at the micros.

You should be paying attention to your opponents tendencies. If they go all-in with high frequency you could be up against anything and you could be best off trapping them with 2 pair of vetter. If your up against a rare shove from somebody. Your best have the nuts!!!

Well said. I play on Bovada and BetOnline and the wild loose action can be quite intense. I've seen players stack off with everything from bottom pair bottom kicker to Ace high to missed draws. And sometimes they actually do catch it. Today a good example was a player who called a 3-bet pre (I held AKs on the button), we get an Ace on the flop, player flat calls flop and turn, then shoves river. There's no flush possible and the board was not very conducive to any type of straight draws. I did think maybe they had a set or maybe two pair (like K5) but called because a lot of times sets and 2 pairs with raise you on the turn. Often it's an Ace with a weaker kicker.

Anyway the opponent turns over 4d7d for the runner runner straight....? Bizarre.

It's a good question but hard to answer without more information about the villain. If he's anknown I have no idea how to play this situation

Good point about unknowns. I tend to fold to the shoves if I have zero info on them and haven't seen them get too out of line.

It is a tough one you have to go with your batty instincts have you got fold equity how often does opponent bluff and use all information at your disposal with this one good luck:confused:

7d80485af9151d463b64d7e71ded1e5c.jpg



Yes the batty instincts take long to master. And esp harder online. But to the point of bluffing, it's not even a bluff sometimes, sometimes it's a semi-bluff and/or they believe they have the best hand. Like we hold AK , there's an ace on the board, and they shove and show QQ and we win. I agree if I see them bluff shoving a lot I'm calling with a ton of hands, I just need to get better at laying down beat hands when the story makes some sense (i.e. they call us pre, flop, and turn, and river is the 3rd suit...did they get there? probably).

I'm probably going to create another thread based on my thoughts on how to get away from TPTK as it's still one of my biggest online leaks.
 
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