Chance of someone having a pair of aces?

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thomasguy3419

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Hi everyone. NLHE 6 Max ZOOM cash game on pokerstars.
What is the chance that someone has an ace in their hand when an ace hits the flop?
I'm talking about when I'm up against only 1 or 2 opponents after raising or re-raising with KK and an ace hits the flop.
It seems that whenever there is an ace on the board someone has it.
There has rarely been a scenario where they don't have the ace.
The only time they don't have the ace is when I continuation bet and they either fold or check all the way down to the river.
 
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vinnie

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This depends on the opponent and their range, as well as specific flops.

I took a sample flop of :ah4: :jc4: :10s4: and gave hero :kh4: :kc4:

Against a person who plays a 20% range, they have 168 possible combinations on this flop with your holding. Of those, 72 of them contain an Ace. So, the odds would be about 43% of the time.

If they have a different range, the counts will be different. But, a lot of good hands also have an Ace. So, I would think 40-45% of the time is a fair estimate for most people.

Edit: I ran these on an A-7-2 rainbow flop with 10% and 20% ranges and got 40.6% and 43.8% odds of an Ace. So, yeah, I think assuming 40-45% chance they have an Ace is a good range. Against two opponents, 65% to 70% of the time one of them will have an Ace. Give or take. But, yeah, it is high against two people.
 
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PapaC

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I don't know all the odds because I was in the rest room smoking cigs with all the other class skippers when that lesson was going on. But when I'm holding KK and the flop has an A in it, and if I'm first to act, I will make a value bet just to see where everyone is at. Many times my bet is saying I have an A myself and more times than I can count the other players fold. But if I do get a flat call or small raise I'm pretty sure that's where the A is and that player isn't wanting to run me off. What I love is when a new player moves all in to my bet and I'm without a doubt he has the A so I fold it and it saves me a lot of chips and he gets very little for his trouble. I always type in chat Another Good Hand Wasted. But those hands are really hard to play. Some players will slow play the A and if they do, I can call all the way and hope for a K. I could talk on but the truth is that I don't know what I would do unless I'm in a hand like that. There is no one way to do things and that goes for poker. So really we just live and learn no matter if it works or not.
 
Masi2197

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I do not know the odds of an AA hand but what if I can tell you is that when you have a KK QQ JJ 1010 or some pair there many possibilities
 
vinnie

vinnie

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[. . .]But when I'm holding KK and the flop has an A in it, and if I'm first to act, I will make a value bet just to see where everyone is at. Many times my bet is saying I have an A myself and more times than I can count the other players fold. But if I do get a flat call or small raise I'm pretty sure that's where the A is and that player isn't wanting to run me off. [. . .]

You might want to rethink how you're approaching this situation. When you bet this flop out of position, intending to give up if called, you are just throwing away money. Your bet will never have a positive expectation. If you have the best hand, your opponent folds and your bet doesn't bring you any profit. If you have the worst hand, you lose your bet. And, sometimes you might have the best hand but let your opponent steal the pot on the turn or river after you give up.

It would be better, in this spot, to check and keep all the worse hands and bluffs in your opponent's range. You can check and give up against those players who only bet when they have it and are straight forward players. Against those who can't help but try and steal after being checked to a couple times, you can check with the intent of calling one bet. Generally, at the micro and low stakes, I wouldn't call more than one bet. When you check/call, few players will give you credit for being able to fold an A-x hand (which it now looks like you might have) to another bet. So, they stop bluffing. Tougher players might fire more than once as a bluff, but you can make a note on those guys and just fold to the first bet. I wouldn't commit to calling down because being wrong is just too expensive. I would commit to calling them down with an A-x hand, especially with a decent kicker. KK is near the bottom of your check/calling range, so you can let it go.
 
Amanda A

Amanda A

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I think the odds of getting AA are about 1 in 220. But the chances of someone having an Ace after the flop if there is a raise pre flop and there are multiple players is I would say pretty high. People tend to play their Aces and call raises with AK AQ AJ even A10 (they would also call with high medium pairs but a lot of people would throw away low pairs) so it seems like a good chance someone hit the flop with their Ace.
 
Aces2w1n

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The way you play a hand can really filter what people have at showdown. So yeh it feels like everytime at showdown they have the ace but you have to take into account the folds your opponents make.
 
edc1

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not sure bout odds but it seems like everytime I get dealt kings I always seem to lose to aces-I can remember getting aces dealt back to back those odds are surely high
 
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Dan Lucas

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There are 50 cards left in the deck without your 2 hole cards. After the flop, there are 3 aces left out of 47 cards. The chances of getting dealt an ace are about 25%. So the math would say that 1 in 4 times someone has an ace. Odds are, if one flops, no one has one in their hand, so you continuation bet is probably a great way to see if someone reps the ace, and if someone comes back at you, that's what the fold is for. Don't ignore the answer once you have asked the question.
 
vinnie

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There are 50 cards left in the deck without your 2 hole cards. After the flop, there are 3 aces left out of 47 cards. The chances of getting dealt an ace are about 25%. So the math would say that 1 in 4 times someone has an ace. Odds are, if one flops, no one has one in their hand, so you continuation bet is probably a great way to see if someone reps the ace, and if someone comes back at you, that's what the fold is for. Don't ignore the answer once you have asked the question.

This assumes a 100% range for your opponent. Well, it would be if the chances of being dealt an Ace was 25%. If you hold KK and the flop has a single Ace on it, the chances of being dealt an Ace would be 135/1081 or approx. 12.49%. A good way to think about this is the odds of NOT being dealt an Ace. There are 47 unknown cards, 44 of them not an Ace. After you take one of the non-Ace cards, 43 out of the 46 remaining will not be an Ace. We can calculate that by doing the following: (44/47 * 43/46) which is 1892/2162 ->946/1081 which means out of 1081 possible hands, 946 of them won't have an Ace. The 135 remaining will.

Anyway, what really needs to be done is look at a range, since your opponent is unlikely to hold 9-3 offsuit. They are much more likely to hold combinations with Aces than without. In a 3-bet pot with tight ranges (5%-7%) nearly half their range will include an Ace. Although very tight 3-bettors--say 3%--will have an Ace much less often because their range with Aces is almost entirely AA and AKs and the rest is pairs. So they could have one as low as 14% of the time.
 
vinnie

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I decided to show this graphically. This is based on the % of hands a player plays. I used the propokertools simulator, so it is their ranking system. There is a chance a player might play a slightly different range at a given percentage compared to this, and that range might include more or less Ax combos than assumed here.

These are run on a board of :as4: :7h4: :2c4: and assume the Hero holds :kh4: :kc4: with only one opponent.

As you can see, for ranges > 5% and < 20%, the odds are above 40% (peaking at 11% range with an likelihood of just under 49%). Most values are in the low 40% area.
 

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Aces2w1n

Aces2w1n

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Yeh also the fact when its 3bet pot or 4bet its either prem pairs or a strong Ace
 
HennieP

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The odds of getting Aces are 1 in 221. The odds of getting Aces twice in a row are 1 in 48,841. ;)
 
R

Rational Madman

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There is no point knowing this number, there is a reason poker is better than other gambling games for the player:

1) Since the house wins no matter who loses, it's never rigged against you unless there's corruption and collusion.

2) You can ignore raw odds and focus on player psychology odds.
 
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