Cash Game Strategy Discussion.

[BelgoSuisse]

The only problem with this is that if I am against an observant opponent they know exactly what I have in these situations (munchers called my shove with 44, an underpair to the board). So to make up for this we need to do this with hands like sets as well. So I like to take the overbet/shove if short enough line with sets as well as big combo draws.

Aren't you losing value on your set by doing this?

 

[WVHillbilly]

FWIW:

(click for full size)



Looks like NSD winnings amount to 2.1 ptbb/100 or 1/3 of my total winnings.

Here are the stats:
VP$IP: 16
PFR: 12
AF: 3
W$WSF: 41
WTSD: 25
W$SD: 54

 

[bw07507]

Can someone explain this to me a little bit? I dont have PT3, but I have pokerEV and I dont really understand how the graph works. How do I know what my NSD winnings are, I dont really see a line for them. And I also don't know what slanksy bucks really are either. I feel kind of stupid asking this, I know I should know this stuff. Anyways heres my graphs if anyone wants to explain them.

 

[WVHillbilly]

With PokerEV if your blue line (SD winnings) is below your green line (total winnings) your NSD winnings are + and are equal to the difference between the 2. Sklansky bucks are based on your equity in pots (basically what you should have won) and if your total winnings are more than you're SBs you're running good and if it's less you're running bad.

 

[SavagePenguin]

Unlike a girl at Marti-Gras, I don't have to show to get paid off.

I guess this is another freak stat to go with my SB wins.
And I don't appear to be making any groundlately in the NSD totals.

Thanks for the PM support Zachvac. And thanks for letting me know about the graph WV.

 

[Jagsti]

WTF!

Seriously I sux at pokaz. How the askjdajdhADJHd do you guys get +ve NSD winnings. This is not even funny, I feel like killing myself when I look at my red line. I have lost so much money on post flop play WTF!!!!!

I hate you all, argghhgadghjdhga fa fj!!!!!

 

[BelgoSuisse]

WTF!

Seriously I sux at pokaz. How the askjdajdhADJHd do you guys get +ve NSD winnings. This is not even funny, I feel like killing myself when I look at my red line. I have lost so much money on post flop play WTF!!!!!

I hate you all, argghhgadghjdhga fa fj!!!!!

Maybe you're just better than us at getting paid on your big hands while we play them in a way that make our opponents fold? So we lose value even though we end up with better non showdown winnings.

 

[Jagsti]

p.s. I don't really hate you all LDO!

 

[F Paulsson]

If we have a big combo draw like an OESFD we are AHEAD of everything but sets.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

38,610 games 0.005 secs 7,722,000 games/sec

Board: Ad 8h 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.901% 51.90% 00.00% 20039 0.00 { AA, 99-88, AKs, A9s-A8s, AKo, A9o-A8o }
Hand 1: 48.099% 48.10% 00.00% 18571 0.00 { JhTh }

... and in this particular case, we're actually a dog to AQ (since one of our queens is dead). But that's neither here nor there.

The only part of his range that we actually beat is AK. The rest we're a dog to. I've noticed in several threads the trend for people to treat combo draws as if they have 60%+ equity, and it's just not true. The reason they can be pushed hard is because they do usually have decent equity (~50%) but also because they have a lot of fold equity.

And although folding out top pair type hands isn't great, since we just got a worse hand to fold

And to clear up a misunderstanding about fold equity: We don't need him to fold "the best hand" for there to be fold equity. Fold equity is the money we gain from him folding a hand that isn't drawing dead. We have fold equity vs. a gutshot straight draw when we're holding a set if we push. Quite possibly not enough fold equity to make a push worth it, but fold equity nonetheless.

Case in point:

Pot is $30, My opponent I have both have $90 stacks. I push with 51% equity. I really want him to fold the worst hand.

 

[F Paulsson]

Exercise: How much equity must I have for me to prefer him to call instead?

 

[Jagsti]

Well I'm not sure what the %age would be to want a call. Presumably when we are well ahead. Because when we only have a small edge i.e 51% to say up to 55% I prefer having the fold equity my push has rather than taking my chances on a coin flip. If I had to put a %age on it and quite obv I'm not a great maths person when it comes to making the +EV calculations, but I want calls when i have probably 65%+.

Is this what your asking FP?

 

[F Paulsson]

That's what I'm after, yes. It takes quite a big edge to "wish" for a call on the flop even when the pot is relatively small (30BB with 90BB stacks behind in this case). If the pot were big, the edge required to gain from a call rather than a fold gets even bigger, of course.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

well, you want him to call if his odds make it wrong for him to call. After you push 90BB into a 30BB pot, he has to call 90 to get a chance at 210, so he needs to win 42.85% to break even. So if you have > 57.15% edge you wish for a call, otherwise you wish for a fold.

 

[SavagePenguin]

WTF!
Seriously I sux at pokaz. How the askjdajdhADJHd do you guys get +ve NSD winnings. This is not even funny, I feel like killing myself when I look at my red line. I have lost so much money on post flop play WTF!!!!!

I hate you all, argghhgadghjdhga fa fj!!!!!

Bw07507 and I are 1337.
Or we are inefficient.
Or somewhere in between.
But we're definitely something.

I'm not sure if a positive NSD is a good thing. I mean, if the risk of losing on the river is greater percentage than the extra chips we get from value betting, winning NSD hands is good. But if we can increase the pot by a greater percentage than our risk of losing, we're losing value.

So if someone makes a lot of successful bluffs, enough to overcome $ lost to blinds, a positive NSD is a good thing.

I don't think I bluff too much. Well, I continuation bet all the freaking time, but I just consider that proper protocol, not a bluff. And I guess if I thought I bluffed too much I'd stop myself from doing it.

Personally, I think me being positive is based on my freakish winnings in the SB. Somehow I just get lucky in that position. (Someone's gotta the win the lottery... might as well be me)

 

[zachvac]

Exercise: How much equity must I have for me to prefer him to call instead?

That would be a pot odds, or reverse pot odds question. He's getting 1.33:1 odds on his money, meaning he must have 1/(2.33) to call, which comes out to 42.9%. We must then have higher than 57.1% to want a call. Of course if we factor in rake, the number's probably even higher, although not by much.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Zach, you must be slipping. 1st you only compute the percentage to 1 decimal after Belgo went to 2 and then you don't do the math to figure it out with the rake? What's the world coming to?

 

[zachvac]

WTF!

Seriously I sux at pokaz. How the askjdajdhADJHd do you guys get +ve NSD winnings. This is not even funny, I feel like killing myself when I look at my red line. I have lost so much money on post flop play WTF!!!!!

I hate you all, argghhgadghjdhga fa fj!!!!!

lol same.

 

[zachvac]

I vote that from now on, if a pot doesn't go to showdown, that all money is just refunded back to original owners. All in favor say 'aye'.

 

[zachvac]

Zach, you must be slipping. 1st you only compute the percentage to 1 decimal after Belgo went to 2 and then you don't do the math to figure it out with the rake? What's the world coming to?

lol didn't even see that, although I think he's wrong. I got 57.14285714 which rounds to 57.14% when using the extra digit

 

[F Paulsson]

That would be a pot odds, or reverse pot odds question. He's getting 1.33:1 odds on his money, meaning he must have 1/(2.33) to call, which comes out to 42.9%. We must then have higher than 57.1% to want a call. Of course if we factor in rake, the number's probably even higher, although not by much.

Right, and the point of the exercise was to show why...

And although folding out top pair type hands isn't great, since we just got a worse hand to fold

... is not true. It's really great when we can fold out top pair hands. Especially since we're not a huge favorite vs. any top pairs. In fact, we're a dog to some of them, even with OESFD (as shown earlier).

Pushing combo draws is profitable because of fold equity.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

lol didn't even see that, although I think he's wrong. I got 57.14285714 which rounds to 57.14% when using the extra digit

Indeed, it's 57.142857142857142857142857142857%, and I rounded badly.

Of course if we factor in rake, the number's probably even higher, although not by much.

Including rake, you win 210-3 = 207 when you win a showdown and you win 30*0.95 = 28.5 when villain fold. So you benefit from a showdown if your showdown equity is better than (28.5+90)/207 = 57.246376811594202898550724637681% . That's more than a 0.1% difference!

 

[JimmyBrizzy]

Case in point:

Pot is $30, My opponent I have both have $90 stacks. I push with 51% equity. I really want him to fold the worst hand.

Wow, I never thought about it this way. That's a great point I have to take into mind; it's not always getting the best hand out, it could be an underdog with the right odds to call.

Thanks.

 

[SavagePenguin]

Ok, so is this the scenario you're talking about?

Lets' say your hands were dealt face up at $10NL.
You have Kd Qd
Villain has 3c 3s
You'll win 50.4% of the time.
He'll win 48.84% of the time.
But the rake will be 5%.

Even though you're the favorite, if you shove and he calls, it's a losing play for you because of the rake. (Note, the villain has even more -EV)
But if he folds to your shove 5% or more of the time it's a +EV move.

(I guess technically he'd need to fold slightly less than 5% of the time for it to be +EV, but I'm keeping it simple)

 

[SavagePenguin]

Bw07507 and I are 1337.

Back to the NSD stuff...

Bw07507 and I, both have "unusual" NSD stats and I just realized that we are both primarily 6-max players. So could it be a 6-max thing?

 

[WVHillbilly]

Mine are at FR so I doubt it.