Cash Game Questions?

1

1KrazyMofo

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Feb 11, 2016
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Whats the longest downswing while playing decent poker?

I probably havn't been playing my best poker but still I believe it should be profitable,

I always looked at cash games as easy/least swingy game mode. and never really had that many days of bad run let alone 2 on the bounce :L

the problem is poker tracker lies about stats too, especially with Avg All-In equity,
the amount of times I'm pot committed but they hit a set or straight or something after I've made them pay nearly my whole stack, basically setting up a river shove anyways.

unreal the amount of straights / flushes people make, when I fish them they never come in,

the ones that have I've been out flushed, its unreal, there has been ones where I get paid off by poo, and then ones where they have flush over flush, so the thing is people are paying off with poo, but just not me very often...

the amount of times people 3bet the pot too, but when I get AA everyone has a psychic read on me and folds... it feels like you can't even script this sh t///

the problem might be that I havn't been following bankroll management, well I am bankrolled to play $2 NL obviously but I am playing with $1 and your supposed to leave the table once you double up? I did get I did get a couple nasty coolers with $3/$4 but I'm playing the fast tables and everything happening fast, so easy just to continue playing :L

Idk though, I would like an opinion though, especially from a cash game player,

Stats are not 100% honest, especially since I start with $1

like my avg all in equity, people have fished me with gut shots hit them and then gone all in for my remaining 30c and I'm drawing dead, so I guess it don't matter that I got the main pot in miles ahead?

If anyone's interested in the stats, its 13,697 hands, -7.11 bb/100, just think I'd state my Avg all in equity is 51.42 ( which I feel is false ) main pots usually in at 60%, obviously there's been some flips, AK vs QQ etc.
is this normal? even for winning players?
 
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D

DegenerateQuant

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Humans are terrible at understanding variance. We remember the losses more strongly than we remember the wins. We are risk-averse creatures. And we struggle to see small edges in swingy games.

If you truly want to understand how swingy poker is, try using a variance calculator like Primedope.
 
H

Hermus

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Two things first. The site is not rigged against you, and your poker tracker is not lying to you.

Now then. If you're looking for the least swingy games your best bet are regular cash tables. The player pool is a lot softer compared to fast fold, and you'll be able to table/seat select to play against poor players. Here your winrate should be a lot higher meaning you'll go on fewer downswings. The flipside is that volume will be much lower.

Secondly. The average all-in EV is kinda useless since you'll be entering multi-way pots which are technically +EV but shares the equity between 3+ players. In fact, if your average all-in EV is high you're probably playing too tight. So yes, somewhere between 45-55 is very normal for winning players.

What are your EV adjusted winnings? That's a better measure of running good or running bad (though not perfect since it does not take your hand strength and non-showdown runouts into account).

Just remember, on average, you'll lose AA vs KK, boat over boat, flush over flush as often as you win them. Your long-term winrate comes from spots where you manage to make the correct play more often than your opponent, which are always the less obvious spots. Focus on studying, optimising your strategy, and following a good bankroll strategy and you'll get there.
 
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Banjois

Banjois

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It's always important to remember that, when it comes down to it, it's less a numbers game than you think it is. You can play correctly according to the math and percentages, and still lose, to both hopeful idiots who got lucky, and more knowledgeable players who read what the action is. Of course you should win more often than not, if you playing "correctly", but you have to move past "correct" play to "winning" play. Good luck out there!
 
Vallet

Vallet

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The longest downswing occurs when you move from the usual NL level to a higher one. This is my biggest mistake. Do you think that there are more serious players there? But in fact, there are people there who simply do not feel sorry for money. It is important to stay at the limits in which you are comfortable.
 
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