Call or Not

[Herkstwin]

In a live casino $1/$3 game, I got AQ of spades in UTG+1.
I raised to $7.
Villain on the button calls. All others fold.
Flop: Ks Ts 3d.
I check, villain checks.
Turn: Td
I check, villain pushes all in. He has me covered.
I have about $100.

Considerations:
1. The J of spades gives me a Royal Flush.
2. Eight other spades give me the nut flush.
3. The Bad Beat Jackpot is about $140,000.
4. There is a 1/45 chance at hitting a Royal Flush and possibly the Bad Beat Jackpot.
5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house.

The question: Do I call or fold?
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
In a few days I will post the outcome of the hand.

 

[Chica_bonita]

Hello!:ciao:
I'm playing pretty risky, and I decided to call.

In fact, I would assume that the opponent is sitting with TTT or bluffing.
I wouldn't count on a royal flush, I'd focus more on a flush, but I also assumed I had a few more outs: any J would give me a straight.

 

[Poker_Mike]

In a live casino $1/$3 game, I got AQ of spades in UTG+1.
I raised to $7.
Villain on the button calls. All others fold.
Flop: Ks Ts 3d.
I check, villain checks.
Turn: Td
I check, villain pushes all in. He has me covered.
I have about $100.

Considerations:
1. The J of spades gives me a Royal Flush.
2. Eight other spades give me the nut flush.
3. The Bad Beat Jackpot is about $140,000.
4. There is a 1/45 chance at hitting a Royal Flush and possibly the Bad Beat Jackpot.
5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house.

The question: Do I call or fold?
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
In a few days I will post the outcome of the hand.

The question in my mind is does this guy do this type of thing in other hands?

Yes - then you cry call.

No - then he probably has "something" that he thinks has you beat.

He could have AJ or more reasonably pocket 55-88.

He could think that his A3 suited is good here.

I'm dying to know what happened??

 

[No Bologna]

Call or not

I would be there to gamble, you don't get very many chances at a royal and it would suck to lose $100. You have alot of outs and not much of a reason to believe your opponent would have quads or hit them (pretty rare).

 

[pescaofish]

I will say he has 10, 10, 10 so your chances are not that many, I will Fold :deal:

 

[afecho]

If I had a good read on the guy I might call if I suspect he's been bluffing often. If I don't have a read, I am definitely folding. I'm just not risky enough to make that move without having something in hand hoping for the river to deliver. I look forward to hearing what you did though!

 

[leoniq888]

Hi!

It is most likely that the opponent has three of a kind. Of course you shouldn't HOPE for a royal flush (one out - 2%), but you have about a 22% chance of making a winning hand. But since that's what you're describing, I'd call!

 

[Herkstwin]

Hello!:ciao:
I'm playing pretty risky, and I decided to call.

In fact, I would assume that the opponent is sitting with TTT or bluffing.
I wouldn't count on a royal flush, I'd focus more on a flush, but I also assumed I had a few more outs: any J would give me a straight.

Thanks for sharing. Fair assumption about opponent.

The question in my mind is does this guy do this type of thing in other hands?

Yes - then you cry call.

No - then he probably has "something" that he thinks has you beat.

He could have AJ or more reasonably pocket 55-88.

He could think that his A3 suited is good here.

I'm dying to know what happened??

I have never played him before and with nine new opponents, I had no solid lead on his style.
Agreed - he probably pushed forcing me to decide.
Will post the answer in a few days.

I would be there to gamble, you don't get very many chances at a royal and it would suck to lose $100. You have alot of outs and not much of a reason to believe your opponent would have quads or hit them (pretty rare).

So you are a gambler and would call?
Agreed - I have never had a Royal Flush.

I will say he has 10, 10, 10 so your chances are not that many, I will Fold :deal:

If he has 10 10 10, then a flush will beat him. I had 9 outs to the nut flush. And I had 3 outs to a straight.
Depending on his hand, he may have had 1 out to quads. Possibly 9 more outs for a full house.

If I had a good read on the guy I might call if I suspect he's been bluffing often. If I don't have a read, I am definitely folding. I'm just not risky enough to make that move without having something in hand hoping for the river to deliver. I look forward to hearing what you did though!

As I responded to a previous post, I had no good read on him. He called my pre-flop raise, and pushed all in on the turn, so I am expecting he matched something on the board. Did not believe he was bluffing with an all-in.
Results coming soon.

It is most likely that the opponent has three of a kind. Of course you shouldn't HOPE for a royal flush (one out - 2%), but you have about a 22% chance of making a winning hand. But since that's what you're describing, I'd call!

Don't we all hope for a Royal Flush? Yeah - I was hoping, but I was betting on catching a flush to win, not the Royal.
Don't forget - there was also a $140,000 Bad Beat Jackpot to consider (HOPE for).

 

[Tigroslav]

For the bad beat JP call.
Otherwise fold and be sure to c-bet the flop next time.

 

[gustavofuentes2]

With that much at stake it could be a once in a lifetime opportunity. I would definitely call

 

[Kinalha]

For the bad beat JP call.
Otherwise fold and be sure to c-bet the flop next time.

I wanna be write a answer, but you post more fast than me.

Next

 

[Poker_Mike]

Agreed - he probably pushed forcing me to decide.
Will post the answer in a few days.

I can't wait to hear what happened...tell us tell us tell us....lol

 

[rastapapolos]

Let's analyse your hand:
The pot is 18$
Flop: Ks Ts 3d

Hero first to acts and checks. I don't like your check here, you have enough draws to bet, any spade or jack will give you the best hand, there's a king on the board you can rep it as you are UTG you have a king in your range, and you have to build a pot in case you hit your draw.
Villain to act : he checks. he could check back with a ten, QJ, Ax, a weak king like KJ and he knows that against UTG range he's behind.
Turn: Td. This card will remove a ten from his range. Hero checks again, wich is too passive for the reason I already mentioned.
Villain moves in.
"5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house."
He doesn't have a quad or full-house because he didn't bet a wet board.
If he had KK he would probably raise you pre-flop. with KT, TT and 33 he bet the flop to get the most value of your kings and your draws.
When he moves all-in he's polarized, either he has the nuts or nothing.
If we assign him this range (KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AdJd, AdTd, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJo+, QTo+, JTo) There will be 16 combos of three of a kind. 21 combo two pair. 12 combos of OESD. 4 combos of nut flush draw (diamond) and 3 combo of no nut flush draw (spade). If we count all this 16/40 = 0.4. you have to be good around 40% of the time, and in EQUILAB you have 43% equity.
So it's an easy call.

 

[Herkstwin]

Let's analyse your hand:
The pot is 18$
Flop: Ks Ts 3d

Hero first to acts and checks. I don't like your check here, you have enough draws to bet, any spade or jack will give you the best hand, there's a king on the board you can rep it as you are UTG you have a king in your range, and you have to build a pot in case you hit your draw.
Villain to act : he checks. he could check back with a ten, QJ, Ax, a weak king like KJ and he knows that against UTG range he's behind.
Turn: Td. This card will remove a ten from his range. Hero checks again, wich is too passive for the reason I already mentioned.
Villain moves in.
"5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house."
He doesn't have a quad or full-house because he didn't bet a wet board.
If he had KK he would probably raise you pre-flop. with KT, TT and 33 he bet the flop to get the most value of your kings and your draws.
When he moves all-in he's polarized, either he has the nuts or nothing.
If we assign him this range (KJs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AdJd, AdTd, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJo+, QTo+, JTo) There will be 16 combos of three of a kind. 21 combo two pair. 12 combos of OESD. 4 combos of nut flush draw (diamond) and 3 combo of no nut flush draw (spade). If we count all this 16/40 = 0.4. you have to be good around 40% of the time, and in EQUILAB you have 43% equity.
So it's an easy call.

Thanks for the expert analysis. I must confess to being a bit passive and probably should have bet the Flop.

 

[Herkstwin]

The River is….

Thanks to everyone for your input.
So what happened???
I called. Once in a lifetime opportunities are just that. So, regardless of the odds, I was determined to go for it.
And the river was a brick!! I do not remember exactly what it was, but I did not get my Royal Flush, or a nut flush, or a straight.
Villain won the hand with Trip 10s. He was holding JT off suit.

Good luck at the tables everyone.
Someday I will get my Royal Flush or a Bad Beat.

 

[puzzlefish]

It's a call but it isn't a happy call

 

[Acechador]

In a live casino $1/$3 game, I got AQ of spades in UTG+1.
I raised to $7.
Villain on the button calls. All others fold.
Flop: Ks Ts 3d.
I check, villain checks.
Turn: Td
I check, villain pushes all in. He has me covered.
I have about $100.

Considerations:
1. The J of spades gives me a Royal Flush.
2. Eight other spades give me the nut flush.
3. The Bad Beat Jackpot is about $140,000.
4. There is a 1/45 chance at hitting a Royal Flush and possibly the Bad Beat Jackpot.
5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house.

The question: Do I call or fold?
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
In a few days I will post the outcome of the hand.

Even though the chances of hitting a royal flush on the river are slim, I would give it a shot... finally if you hit the royal flush it would be $140,000 in your pockets, it's worth the risk... and remember YOLO :icon_thum

 

[perrywh]

I would have called too!

 

[blueskies]

Why is he shoving effectively about $100 into a $18 pot? He's probably reading your checks as weakness. If he had a strong hand he's probably not shoving. I probably would have cbet the flop and then play from there.

 

[okeedokalee]

My assumption usually is a big turn bet is nearly always for value. Why would he push all-in to take such a small pot?
So you are way behind. I understand the reasons you did call.
Unfortunately I have yet to find the inner strength to give up draws also.
Being able to deny opponents equity, is a major break, through if you can get there.
Betting your semi-bluff on the flop probably would have bloated the pot against a button who called JTu and flopped his ten.
Bet your weak draws to take the pot on the flop, and call the nut draws to disguise their strength on later streets.
A very nice hand to discuss, rastapapalos contribution, awesome.

 

[Markjduk]

It’s easy with hindsight…

You probably should have bet the flop, but I would have played it as you did.

 

[Herkstwin]

My assumption usually is a big turn bet is nearly always for value. Why would he push all-in to take such a small pot?
So you are way behind. I understand the reasons you did call.
Unfortunately I have yet to find the inner strength to give up draws also.
Being able to deny opponents equity, is a major break, through if you can get there.
Betting your semi-bluff on the flop probably would have bloated the pot against a button who called JTu and flopped his ten.
Bet your weak draws to take the pot on the flop, and call the nut draws to disguise their strength on later streets.
A very nice hand to discuss, rastapapalos contribution, awesome.

Thanks for the helpful analysis and betting tips. Will try to remember them - next time.

 

[haracsir15]

It's a call but it isn't a happy call

And you already loosing the Pot. I think its a Bad Call.

 

[Johnny78B]

I would call it too. I know it's gamble but it really hard to fold with this hand for me in cash game. But in torney especially in the late stage I would probably fold it.

 

[RustyRed83]

In a live casino $1/$3 game, I got AQ of spades in UTG+1.
I raised to $7.
Villain on the button calls. All others fold.
Flop: Ks Ts 3d.
I check, villain checks.
Turn: Td
I check, villain pushes all in. He has me covered.
I have about $100.

Considerations:
1. The J of spades gives me a Royal Flush.
2. Eight other spades give me the nut flush.
3. The Bad Beat Jackpot is about $140,000.
4. There is a 1/45 chance at hitting a Royal Flush and possibly the Bad Beat Jackpot.
5. With two 10's on the board, I could be up against quads or a full house.

The question: Do I call or fold?
Your thoughts would be appreciated.
In a few days I will post the outcome of the hand.

I cannot believe you checked the flop after raising pre-flop.
Depending on what the $100 means & how many reloads I have, then It is a fold for me. If i have plenty in reserve, then i may consider a call. Bad Beat Jackpot would have no baring on my decision.