Beginner's Luck (This is One of Those Rigged Threads)

[ventrolloquist]

I am running godlike on every new site I join, without fail. Just joined 888, and I am hitting every flop so hard that I cannot imagine how this keeps happening except for poker sites clustering the first few hundred winning hands together for new players. This happened to me 3 months ago when I joined microgaming as well. This is usually followed by an equally long downswing. This morning on MPN I saw a new player with a 15 buyin stack playing fast fold, I wouldn't say his strategy was stellar either, it crossed my mind that maybe he was having his initial lucky run.

I'm don't like to be one of those rigged people but this is getting suspicious. Has anyone else noticed this when joining a new poker room? Has anyone noticed the opposite assuming you are a winning player?

I'd like to hear both sides of the story from as many people as possible so that I can be disproven.

 

[gustav197poker]

Take advantage of it and enjoy your moment. Poker is a game of constant variance. I'm not surprised by what you tell us, because this is usually the case. Sometimes the opposite happens and then the volume of hands you play will compensate for the differences that exist.
Just make sure to check the rooms before making deposits, such as their reputation, their withdrawal policy, general commissions, etc.
In particular I have played very few times in MPN, but I know that it has a good reputation in Europe.
Greetings.

 

[terryk]

This is what most experienced players are saying,,,,remember this upswing,because Yes,it will be followed by a Downswing (is it supposed to last forever?) and all will even out. :damnmate:

 

[hugh blair]

I am running godlike on every new site I join, without fail. Just joined 888, and I am hitting every flop so hard that I cannot imagine how this keeps happening except for poker sites clustering the first few hundred winning hands together for new players. This happened to me 3 months ago when I joined microgaming as well. This is usually followed by an equally long downswing. This morning on MPN I saw a new player with a 15 buyin stack playing fast fold, I wouldn't say his strategy was stellar either, it crossed my mind that maybe he was having his initial lucky run.

I'm don't like to be one of those rigged people but this is getting suspicious. Has anyone else noticed this when joining a new poker room? Has anyone noticed the opposite assuming you are a winning player?

I'd like to hear both sides of the story from as many people as possible so that I can be disproven.

Disagree have deposited on some sites lost the roll first day no beginner luck then,
When on these upswings jam on the breaks withdraw 90% of roll and drop down in limits and this cycle of losing big after winning big will stop happening to you.
Although luck and variance plays a big part,
People start a new site really focused earn money move up to a bigger limit where variance can affect their roll more,
Players are also slightly better higher the limit in general and a little complacency with BRM sets in.
Would analyse game selection personally and my risk versus reward bankroll plays before blaming a poker site to be honest.

 

[ventrolloquist]

Okay, good to hear some contrary examples. I am still suspicious though lol.

Would like to hear more stories.

There is clear incentive to let new inexperienced players win for online poker rooms.

 

[Roobz75]

I think there is some truth to this. I've played online quite a bit and once I join a new table, I've quickly been the chip leader, sometimes 5 hands straight. There is an element of beginners luck, as it were.
I play in a league and when a new person wants to learn and play poker, at least 8 out of 10 times, they end up on the final table, or in the top 3 for that night!
We just expect them to succeed now, as it's happened so predictably.

 

[LevySystem]

I'm don't like to be one of those rigged people but this is getting suspicious. Has anyone else noticed this when joining a new poker room? Has anyone noticed the opposite assuming you are a winning player?

I think - as with a lot of these types of thoughts that they are very subjective and often the result of the human mind trying to recognize patters, even when there are actually none. That's what our mind is designed to do after all, and most of the times grands us an edge evolutionary speaking. But the way variance works is vastly different.

I allways like to take a FD as an example of how our mind tricks us into thinking the wrong things just because of our nature. People allways tend to simplify things. They put villain on a FD just because there is 2 cards of the same suits, not respecting how many combinations of hands there actually is. Human eyes can see with a very high definition and are very aware of colors. Therefore our brain that diferentiates colors on a regular base labels FD= important.

Now if I remember correctly you were experiencing a big downswing couple of weeks ago. Then you started playing on a new site, played more or less the same, and boom! Rungood. Now your brain thinks, well what changed? The site.

And that is what I think that you are thinking right now

Edit: Also after rereading this I forgot one thing I wanted to mention: The pool. Unless you are playing on 2 mirrors of the same site you will face different playerpools. And there can be huge differences in how soft certain stakes, games are on one and the other site, traffic is also.
Now someone would need a relevant sample of hands on both sites to see if we can actually recognize a pattern, but variance will still provide such a high errorprobability that it would become very difficult to accumulate enough sample to do that.

So my Answer is variance. It's difficult to understand and easy to say but most likely right

 

[Aballinamion]

I think - as with a lot of these types of thoughts that they are very subjective and often the result of the human mind trying to recognize patters, even when there are actually none. That's what our mind is designed to do after all, and most of the times grands us an edge evolutionary speaking. But the way variance works is vastly different.

I allways like to take a FD as an example of how our mind tricks us into thinking the wrong things just because of our nature. People allways tend to simplify things. They put villain on a FD just because there is 2 cards of the same suits, not respecting how many combinations of hands there actually is. Human eyes can see with a very high definition and are very aware of colors. Therefore our brain that diferentiates colors on a regular base labels FD= important.

Now if I remember correctly you were experiencing a big downswing couple of weeks ago. Then you started playing on a new site, played more or less the same, and boom! Rungood. Now your brain thinks, well what changed? The site.

And that is what I think that you are thinking right now

Edit: Also after rereading this I forgot one thing I wanted to mention: The pool. Unless you are playing on 2 mirrors of the same site you will face different playerpools. And there can be huge differences in how soft certain stakes, games are on one and the other site, traffic is also.
Now someone would need a relevant sample of hands on both sites to see if we can actually recognize a pattern, but variance will still provide such a high errorprobability that it would become very difficult to accumulate enough sample to do that.

So my Answer is variance. It's difficult to understand and easy to say but most likely right

Hi there LevySystem, are you quoting Evan Jarvis? It seems a lot a text of him that I read a couple of weeks ago.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

 

[LevySystem]

Hi there LevySystem, are you quoting Evan Jarvis? It seems a lot a text of him that I read a couple of weeks ago.

Regards;

Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa

Hey Carlos, no I'm not really quoting anyone.

If you are referring to the example with the FD I think it's from some free video on YT I watched a year ago if I recall correctly, might have been Evan.

 

[hugh blair]

Okay, good to hear some contrary examples. I am still suspicious though lol.

Would like to hear more stories.

There is clear incentive to let new inexperienced players win for online poker rooms.

Thinking about it deeper again actually agree new players have a big advantage regarding beginners luck maybe there is some truth to it and is just down to generous welcome bonuses from poker sites that can be the difference between boom and bust.
For example on my final $300 upswing before taking $2050 withdrawal after clearing this $600 bonus got $300 worth of welcome bonus back.
If I was a regular there it would just be roughly a break even or maybe 10 hour poker losing session.
I busted 2 big deposits though only succeeded with the third $100 deposit total $550.
Currently am happy enough playing one freeroll a day there as sadly busted the $50 left on it after withdrawal.
Although my overall bankroll strategy is going against the rise and grind grain that most poker books teach I can deposit a little later if I like and have broken that huge downswing cycle you describe.
Now if instead of withdrawing 2k I played and busted this roll who would you blame me for playing higher stakes as most aspire to climb limits even when tired maybe tilted and also making bad BRM decisions or the pokersite?
GGPoker Deposit $550 Withdraw $2050 Total +$1500

 

[ventrolloquist]

I think - as with a lot of these types of thoughts that they are very subjective and often the result of the human mind trying to recognize patters, even when there are actually none. That's what our mind is designed to do after all, and most of the times grands us an edge evolutionary speaking. But the way variance works is vastly different.

I allways like to take a FD as an example of how our mind tricks us into thinking the wrong things just because of our nature. People allways tend to simplify things. They put villain on a FD just because there is 2 cards of the same suits, not respecting how many combinations of hands there actually is. Human eyes can see with a very high definition and are very aware of colors. Therefore our brain that diferentiates colors on a regular base labels FD= important.

Now if I remember correctly you were experiencing a big downswing couple of weeks ago. Then you started playing on a new site, played more or less the same, and boom! Rungood. Now your brain thinks, well what changed? The site.

And that is what I think that you are thinking right now

Edit: Also after rereading this I forgot one thing I wanted to mention: The pool. Unless you are playing on 2 mirrors of the same site you will face different playerpools. And there can be huge differences in how soft certain stakes, games are on one and the other site, traffic is also.
Now someone would need a relevant sample of hands on both sites to see if we can actually recognize a pattern, but variance will still provide such a high errorprobability that it would become very difficult to accumulate enough sample to do that.

So my Answer is variance. It's difficult to understand and easy to say but most likely right

Thanks this is a really good explanation. I'm well aware we are wired to seek order in chaos and perhaps this is what's happening, a form of selective memory where only significant things are remembered.

As for that flush draw thing, it usually just so happens that the one time I don't put OPP on a flush draw they take the pot with a FD lol.