Avoiding Suckouts

MrDaMan

MrDaMan

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I was just thinking about how to avoid suckouts. In a cash game where you can reload I think it's near impossible, but in a tournament where survival is key to winning, avoiding a suckout could be the differance betweenin winning or losing.

I was playing in a live shoot out the other night. It's early in the game, the blinds are 25/50 and average stack is 1000. Blinds are 8 minutes long and I'mm in middle position with A/J unsuited.

BB + 2 minimum raises to 100, and I call with A/J, 4 out of 10 see the flop.

Flop is J/2/7

The original raiser, is a young kid and after a few hands I've already marked him as too loose, he minimum raised from EP and I just know that he's just making an aggressive play at the pot as he goes all-in.

I consider a moment what he has, and put him on overaggression with A/K or A/Q, possibly K/J or A/J since he went all-in. J/J maybe but he's too loose and would have rised higher pre-flop, I called and everyone else folded.

He flips over K/J and stood up saying "You have A/J don't you?" before I flipped them over. "Good game" he says.

The turn is a 3 and the river is a K to make his two pair and hes sits down as I get up to leave the game being knocked out.

I think this is a situation where a good tournament player could fold, even though he/she thinks they may have the best hand at the flop.

I didn't fold this one, my instincts were right about this player and I think the call of the all-in is ok, the odds were with me, but the nature of a tournament being either out or in is a major consideration.

Being early in a tournament, with only a few chips invested and catching top pair with the best kicker. A player in front of you goes all-in even if you think you have the best hand, you only have 1 pair and can be drawn out on. Perhaps it's best to fold in this situation.

If you flopped 2 pair or better, the call would be more automatic unless you put your opponent on trips or better. With 2 pair or better your chances of being sucked out on are less.

Some people like to gamble more some less in this kind of situation, I was just thinking about this and thought I'd post it here and see what others might think.
 
4Aces

4Aces

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I get what your saying, but if the odds are more on you side i guess it would be stupid not to call!
 
dj11

dj11

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Good example. Early on in any tourney, its a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

The most important thing in any tourney is survival. Especially in the early goings, yet you can't let some LAG noob run rampant.

It is the philosophical dilemna of our age..........
 
J

joeeagles

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What you are saying makes sense sir, but in this case I don't think you can apply it. When you have such a great read on your opponent you have to call the all-in even if you're risking the suckout. The risk/reward ratio in hands like this is just too great to pass on.

For example, lets say here you have AA and decide to slowplay it because you were last to act and everyone else folded so you are HU against him, and you have this great read on this player. Flop comes same as in hand you described. He goes all-in and you pretty much know his range (you exclude JJ for same reason you did before). Are you going to fold? No.Yet you know that AA carries the same risk as AJ (granted AA has more outs because board can pair, but you get the idea). You call because the risk/reward ratio is too appetizing to pass.

In general, I think your whole point is much more valid in situations before the flop, when chances of getting sucked out are higher because of 5 cards having to still be drawn. But after the flop, when your read on player strongly suggests a high % that you have him dominated (like was your case), I think even a great tournament player will always make the call.

That's just my opinion.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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fold coinflips instead of calling. you're so far ahead that even considering this is making me more weak-tight. he has to hit running cards for a boat for a split or a 3 outer. call if you think your read is spot on.
 
tiltboy

tiltboy

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If i strongly felt i was ahead i would call. If your leading every all in with the other guy having 3 outs you will win much more than you lose.

I usually avoid going broke on a pair - but i have called with Ace high K kicker once before because i felt absoultely certain i was ahead.
 
pokernut

pokernut

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You have to trust your reads and if you are fairly certain judging from the play of your opponents that you are way ahead then you're hurting yourself but not calling. That was the right move there.

I personally tend to make donk calls/moves in lower buy in tournies. For some reason I say to myself "Hey self, you're only losing 5 or 10 bucks and doubling or tripling up here would put you in a great spot." Then I pass my chips along to someone else. For that reason I'm just going to try and satty into higher buy ins most of the time to feed my MTT fix. I concentrate and play much better in them.
 
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