Is this a bad play on my part. Or is this just a microstakes landmine?


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BTN ($7.57) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
SB ($4.85) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
BB ($7.81) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
HERO ($2.42) [VPIP: 11% | PFR: 8% | AGG: 31% | 3-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 101]
HJ ($14.97) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
CO ($6.07) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ A♥

HERO Raises To $0.15, HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.15, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.14 effective]
Flop ($0.37): 9♠ 7♦ 5♦
HERO Bets $0.18 (Rem. Stack: 2.09), CO Calls $0.18 (Rem. Stack: 5.74)

Turn ($0.73): 9♠ 7♦ 5♦ 5♣
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.33 (Rem. Stack: 5.41), HERO Calls $0.33 (Rem. Stack: 1.76)

River ($1.39): 9♠ 7♦ 5♦ 5♣ 6♠
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.19 (Rem. Stack: 4.22), HERO Calls $1.19 (Rem. Stack: 0.57)

Spoiler alert!

Click to Reveal!

CO shows: 8♦ 4♦

CO wins: $3.59

AA has 75% pre-flop equity, but after opening the flop you need to consider the villain's reading, effective stack, position, on-board analysis, and opponent's actions.
Post flop is a hand like any other that needs to be played with much more caution as it is much easier to fold hands with a spatula than a monster hand like AA.
In this time of game and learning I have noticed that in many situations there is nothing to be done other than disconnecting our "dear" AA, after all the game develops in three different streets and from the first we have to face the randomness of the deck.
Do not go into tilt, this happens more often than you think!

I would bet bigger on that wet flop. You're pricing in a lot of draws, so make them pay the full price. I also wouldn't mind a check raise on the turn again to make aggressive draws pay you off or you can just bet the flop/turn bigger.

On the river the flush draw misses even though you're blocking the nut flush. It's less likely villain has full houses here, but it is possible. 97s got counterfeited on the turn so the river bet seems pretty polarized. It looks like a potential steal for the pot or a value bet with full house/straights.

Villain can have a lot of 8x hands in their range. 88, 98s, 78s, etc.

I think you should have folded on that river. Your aces are worthless now. Even though your opp has 100% VPIP.

Originally Posted by 3gdata

Even though your opp has 100% VPIP.

The VPIP doesn't matter in this analysis as the sample size is just ONE hand. Villain likely just sat down at the table.

Originally Posted by prizzy711

Is this a bad play on my part. Or is this just a microstakes landmine?

TL;DR: I think Hero's check on the Turn was a mistake. Why not bet the Turn? If Hero gets raised Hero can fold.

I have NOT read the spoiler so that I can be as objective as possible in my response. Here is how I worked through the problem...

First.. the DriveHud stats on the opponent mean nothing, there is only 1 hand of history for Villain. I am not using them in my analysis.

What range can we put Villain no pre-flop? We don't know anything about him so we have to use our default intuition. I think that most of the time microstakes players re-raise 3-bet your open with strong/medium pairs and big broadways so taking that out of Villains range.

Putting Villain on pre-flop range frequency of 18.4% (226 combos). The notation for this range is: 22-99, A2s-A9s, K9s-KJs, Q9s-QJs, J9s-JTs, T9s-T8s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A5o, QJo+, JTo+, J9o-T9o. Against this range Hero's AA has 83% equity.

Flop - thinking that Villain would continue with pairs+, any one-card draws, and any 2 overcards - which is still a wide range. This means he is continuing with about 97% of his pre-flop range so subtracting the combos based on the flop he has 192 combos. The notation for this range is: 22-99, A5s-A9s, K9s-KJs, Q9s-QJs, J9s-JTs, T9s-T8s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A5o, QJo+, JTo+, J9o-T9o. Against this range Hero's AA has 80% equity.

Turn - thinking about what Villain would bet with, I would be surprised if he bets quads/fullhouse/draws (think he would check them), but I think he will bet hands that could be beat by a flush such as straights, 3 of a kind, 2 pair. This means he bets with 22% (42 combos). The good news is that Hero still has 93% equity against Villains range on the Turn.

River - what is left for Villain to bet with? Quads, Full House, Straight, 3 of a kind, Overpair, 2 pair. 44% of his range is NO MADE HAND... bluffing. Hero has 2 pair, doesn't he have to call here? Villain's bet size has to succeed 85% of the time to be profitable. That said, most people in microstakes don't have very many bluffs in them on the river. Hero should probably fold.

WOW! Villain sure did get lucky. I hope you made a bundle of $$ off this guy later - he is EXACTLY the kind of opponent you want to be playing to make money! To be playing these cards on his second hand at the table against a strong UTG open-raise is very fishy - most of the time he won't get there, unfortunately this time he did.

Oop you need to check this river. I wouldn't bet here with a 4 card straight on the board.

by checking turn your giving free cards which im not happy about.

you need to be betting more flop and 2/3 turn... im betting all streets with confidence especially on a paired board we usually beat his range if we bet more and go for all streets value from overpairs and we make money from missed draws as well.

So this is how I feel it needed to be played.... granted seeing the resualts.... you just hit a cooler.... but let's see if we can anylize this to have saved a little money.... personally I doubt it, but we might....

Frist off I would have raised to .12 or .13 granted with stakes this low I dont hate a 3x open since it's only. .03 or .02 (not much different).... so we raise 3x, CO calls, and we see the flop....

With the flop being very connected and wet, we cant give odds for our opponent to call with draws.... thus we should be betting around 2/3 with our top pairs, 2 pairs, over pairs, and low draws, and flopped mid range striaght 84. While betting thin (1/3) with our top draws.... since we have an over pair and the Dimond blocker we should be betting 2/3s.... I highly suggest just taking the 1/2 bet size out of your game completely.... its useless, and since I have taken it out my game has improved literally over night....

So if we would have bet say .25 instead of .18, and got a call the pot would be at .87....

Turn low pairs the board, thus we need to protected our hand at this point and fire a second 2/3 pot bet, and be starting to look for folds at this point. Granted we only have about $2, and we know that if we bet here we are probably gonna be all in on the river. If any Dimond comes since we have the blocker, but we could hope for check check since we double barreled. Chances are Vil is only gonna fire the river on this board if they have a full house, or top side straight.... or a made flush.... so thus I'm not too happy about it, I'm double barreling .65 in hopes for a fold, and we get a call....

With the river 6 you are now gonna be beat 99.9% of the time.... but because we bet big on the flop and turn.... we can bet the river for thin value.... chances are they are gonna fold busted draws, call with hands we still beat like pairs, and they are gonna jam with completed draws or slow played 2 pairs/improved to full houses.... but then again our stack doesnt match up.... if we bet .60 1/3 that half our stack.... so there can be an arguement to be made that we hope for a check check, or we jam the river.... as played I believe jaming the river would be a huge mistake since thier stack could take the hit if they are wrong, ours cant.... and if we check we most definitely need to fold to any river bet.... personally I think I would take a shot with a thin bet since that gives me the best chance to win.... and if he goes over the top I give up.... a thin bet on the river here looks REALLY strong after 2 large bets....

Let's assume he does jam, or makes the call.... we fold to a jam, or go to showdown.... looking at the end resualt it would had been just about the same.... the only diffrence is by betting big, big, small we are giving the villian a lot of chances to fold the better hand..... while playing for just as meny chips we ended up playing for with the line you took.... regaurdless it was a cooler, and was very well played by the player in the CO even if they disnt realize they played it well.... they had chip advatage, they knew you were on the tighter side of the range on a mid range flop, so flopping a striaght, they needed you to catch up a little.... by calling 2 bets, then having the turn 6 come on the river, if you bet, they are making you play for the rest of your stack.... this was just a cooler, figuring they are only doing this with hands like 84s, 95s or 75s, which would already be at the bottom of thier range.... and if this was in there preflop playing range you are way ahead of the other combinations that would have gotten a peice of this flop that you still beat....

Overall I would just say avoid 1/2 bets, and stick to 2/3 and 1/3.... you will be able to eliminate alot of thier range based off action this way.... 1/2 have a hard time doing this....

Auto-top off your stack.

Pre-flop is fine.

Bet bigger on the flop. I may bet 3/4 to a pot sized bet on the flop with that kind of board. It hits a flat-calling range from the cutoff pretty hard.

Never checking this turn. Just gives your opponent a free card. I'm leaning to just shove the turn here. As played, when you check and villain bets then shove.

River is a bad card which is why I wanted my stack already in there with AA.

Thanks a ton for everyone taking the time to help me learn from this hand. I will pay it forward, for sure.

Originally Posted by scubed

T

Putting Villain on pre-flop range frequency of 18.4% (226 combos). The notation for this range is: 22-99, A2s-A9s, K9s-KJs, Q9s-QJs, J9s-JTs, T9s-T8s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A5o, QJo+, JTo+, J9o-T9o. Against this range Hero's AA has 83% equity.

So how often at the microstakes will someone play this bad of a hand, cold calling a raise?
What % of hands does 84s fall into?

Originally Posted by prizzy711

So how often at the microstakes will someone play this bad of a hand, cold calling a raise?

Yes, I think that MANY opponents in microstakes flat with any two suited cards. It is very annoying, but happens frequently. When they get lucky, as Villain did in this hand, they are encouraged to keep playing these bad cards - we should be HAPPY about that!

Originally Posted by prizzy711

What % of hands does 84s fall into?

Any 2 suited cards is a frequency of 23%. If you add the pairs and broadways to the mix it is 38%.

At the time of this hand you'd only seen Villain for one hand... what was his VPIP / PR after 50-100 hands?

I think you should have bet turn instead of check.

I think a turn bet woulda been nice. The river check/call was a debatable bluff catcher;

call on river was bad you sholud just fold ..so many card beat you

You must react instant pre-flop and of course after a flop with a strong bet. I do not see the reason why I should check. With AA you have the greatest chances before the flop and you should not allow free viewing of the last two cards.

Originally Posted by prizzy711

Is this a bad play on my part. Or is this just a microstakes landmine?


Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD http://drivehud.com/?t=hh Software

NL Holdem $0.05(BB)
BTN ($7.57) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
SB ($4.85) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
BB ($7.81) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
HERO ($2.42) [VPIP: 11% | PFR: 8% | AGG: 31% | 3-Bet: 5.3% | Hands: 101]
HJ ($14.97) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]
CO ($6.07) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 66.7% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 1]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ A♥

HERO Raises To $0.15, HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.15, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.14 effective]
Flop ($0.37): 9♠ 7♦ 5♦
HERO Bets $0.18 (Rem. Stack: 2.09), CO Calls $0.18 (Rem. Stack: 5.74)

Turn ($0.73): 9♠ 7♦ 5♦ 5♣
HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.33 (Rem. Stack: 5.41), HERO Calls $0.33 (Rem. Stack: 1.76)

River ($1.39): 9♠ 7♦ 5♦ 5♣ 6♠
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.19 (Rem. Stack: 4.22), HERO Calls $1.19 (Rem. Stack: 0.57)

Spoiler alert!

Click to Reveal!

CO shows: 8♦ 4♦

CO wins: $3.59

It was a tricky practice but the preflop was played wrong, it should have increased more for the opponent not to pay with any card, okay that extracting is good but if you leave it cheap it can accredit and stop the grace of AA.

I think mistakes were made on the last 2 streets.
Usually when someone is check-calling the flop in a wet flop he wants to hit the flush or straight based on that board.
If i were you i would have raised about 0.60$ the turn and if my opponent called, with that disastrous river card and with my opponent raising about 80% i would easily fold my cracked aces..

U did too small size on the flop, and turn, and this river u shoud fold.. becouse he represent many hands better, like 8x or full houses

What i can say for sure, is that your opponent had it's mind on a bluff all along. The only thing he hoped pre-flop, was a flush draw at most. That turn, gave him the perfect card to bluff even better. Hell, he never expected that 6 on the river whatsoever. Still you played AA very slow. Don't try to grind with AA or think you will trick people. The joke may be on you in the end. AA=bet big, pre-flop, flop, turn whatever. If all you win are the blinds... so be it, and if you loose, it's not like you would have folded AA anyway.

I want fold river. there are straight, and fullhouse, and trips.

I would bet bigger or overbet flop & shove that turn, not many combos that beat us, with 5 pairing the board its unlikely he has 5x or 55, 99 and 66 are only hands that beat us or a straight apperently, but thats unlikely aswell and all the overpairs will call im pretty sure. aswell as some pair+draw combos.

Originally Posted by FerC182

It was a tricky practice but the preflop was played wrong, it should have increased more for the opponent not to pay with any card, okay that extracting is good but if you leave it cheap it can accredit and stop the grace of AA.

I agree. I prefer to raise a bit more than 3bb from early positions (UTG and MP), 3.5 or 4bb (you could raise even 5bb sometimes) to prevent calling from later positions. It's hard to play postflop OOP so it's better when people don't call you IP.

Originally Posted by Sil3ntness

I would bet bigger on that wet flop. You're pricing in a lot of draws, so make them pay the full price. I also wouldn't mind a check raise on the turn again to make aggressive draws pay you off or you can just bet the flop/turn bigger.

On the river the flush draw misses even though you're blocking the nut flush. It's less likely villain has full houses here, but it is possible. 97s got counterfeited on the turn so the river bet seems pretty polarized. It looks like a potential steal for the pot or a value bet with full house/straights.

Villain can have a lot of 8x hands in their range. 88, 98s, 78s, etc.

I agree as well with this. Def betting bigger on flop, def betting on turn or check/raising turn.

shit happend's also that lucky boy

I very rarely play on these maps ,but I'm sure that they win in the stars the same amount of wins as the older connectors ..we just scored in the minds of the fact that the older monsters and the pockets should win 90% of cases,but it is not.