Hey folks. I've been playing since June 19th mostly 5NL and I've been earning 25bb per 100 hands, however its only 3672 hands. Is it enough to make assumptions about what kinda bankroll I need for a given game or should I wait ti'll I play 20 000 + hands to know where I am at then decide what kinda bankroll I should be operating with. Though, I feel super confident about winning 25bb each 100 hands cause last 1125 hands I'm winning 125.2bb per 100 hands.

Congrats on your success so far playing 5NL!

While that winrate is a great sign, the sample size is too small to be confident that it's close to your true winrate. In particular, I think 25bb/100 is probably unsustainably high and your actual winrate will be at least a bit lower even with a huge edge in the game.

As you say, give it 10s of thousands of hands to be more confident.But in the meanwhile, you're playing and crushing which is great.

Originally Posted by Collin Moshman

Congrats on your success so far playing 5NL!

While that winrate is a great sign, the sample size is too small to be confident that it's close to your true winrate. In particular, I think 25bb/100 is probably unsustainably high and your actual winrate will be at least a bit lower even with a huge edge in the game.

As you say, give it 10s of thousands of hands to be more confident.But in the meanwhile, you're playing and crushing which is great.

Thanks for your comment. Yeah its best I give it 6 months more to see where I'm at. ( by that time i'm gonna reach 20 000 hands, I play roughly 50/75 hands per day, I'm working all the time)

Its always great to start with a heater, but as Collin Mostman say, 25 BB / 100 is almost certainly not your true long term winrate. So dont get devastated, if the average comes back down to earth, because it most likely will. The good news is, you are almost sure to be a winning player, since the chance of running 25 BB / 100 above average over 3.762 hands is pretty small. Maybe its 5% or something of that magnitude.

By the way I recommend checking out this free tool, before you hit your first major downswing. Understanding poker variance will take some of the sting out of the experience, when you hit your first major downswing. Which all poker players do sooner or later.


https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Originally Posted by fundiver199

Its always great to start with a heater, but as Collin Mostman say, 25 BB / 100 is almost certainly not your true long term winrate. So dont get devastated, if the average comes back down to earth, because it most likely will. The good news is, you are almost sure to be a winning player, since the chance of running 25 BB / 100 above average over 3.762 hands is pretty small. Maybe its 5% or something of that magnitude.

By the way I recommend checking out this free tool, before you hit your first major downswing. Understanding poker variance will take some of the sting out of the experience, when you hit your first major downswing. Which all poker players do sooner or later.


https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

I'll definitely check it out. Thanks.

Originally Posted by youri

Hey folks. I've been playing since June 19th mostly 5NL and I've been earning 25bb per 100 hands, however its only 3672 hands. Is it enough to make assumptions about what kinda bankroll I need for a given game or should I wait ti'll I play 20 000 + hands to know where I am at then decide what kinda bankroll I should be operating with. Though, I feel super confident about winning 25bb each 100 hands cause last 1125 hands I'm winning 125.2bb per 100 hands.

the statistical criterion is right, when it reaches 25000 hands, you will have a more detailed statistician!

I think 25 blinds each 100 hands is pretty bad. This is NL5, I play with like 250 blinds for 100 hands. Something like that. 25 blinds/100 hands, you are such a fish...