19BI Downswing???

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MinhANguyen

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I recently shotted 100NL a few months ago at 23ishBI, and I built up my roll pretty well. I had 50BI a couple of days ago, but had to pay for something so I withdrew $1k. I already didn't feel comfortable. I'm a BR nit, and 50BI makes me super comfortable. Especially since $100 feels like a lot to me; I'm a broke college student. If I could have delayed my withdrawal, I would have. Then in 3 sessions, over about 20k hands, I went on a huge 19BI downswing. I've had 3-4 BI downswings very occasionally, and once a 14BI downswing at 25NL which made me almost want to quit. I did work myself out of that downswing pretty quickly. Maybe 3-5 sessions, and after that I never had anymore than 2-4BI downswings over 200k+ hands total at 25NL/50NL/100NL (excluding my downswing right now of course). Now I'm starting to feel like quitting again somewhat.

I'm just really frustrated. It took me months and months to build my roll, and I've been a consistent winner for over 300-400k hands at 25/50/100NL. It just seems crazy that I could go on a 19BI downswing within 20-30k hands. My downswings were usually within 1-4, and they were not often. Most of my sessions are winning/slightly above BE/BE, which I'm very happy about. Months and months of work gone in 3 days. I'm just feeling a lot of shock. Going on that downswing at 25NL felt like a lot at the time, but now here it's almost $2000. I feel pretty sick.

I'm running way below EV that it's ridiculous, and keep getting coolered and set-up. I got my KK vs AA 5+ times this week, never sucked out. AA vs KK only once and lost (obviously). And obviously lost 2 KK vs AK; never won. And when I got AK vs KK, which was about 3 times, I always lost. Straight over straight. I had a flush draw to go with it and obviously missed. KK all-in 4-way (had the best hand) and flopped dead on the flop. Constantly getting 2/3-outered for a full stack or almost full stack over and over. I remember I got 2-outered twice in a row back-to-back in 10 minutes on the river for a full stack... Coolered over and over again, etc. I'd say I ran worse than I did on my 14BI downswing at 25NL, which was pretty bad.

I'm feeling kind of sad and demoralized, and I think if I drop below 15BI for 100NL, I might just end up withdrawing and quitting :( . Buy myself a really good new laptop. That gives me a 5BI shot at 100NL. I could always grind again at 50NL, but I think after such a huge hit psychologically and to my bankroll, I'm not sure if I will have the motivation anymore. Anyone have stories of redemption? I don't really want to quit, but I just feel so demoralized and feel like shit. And if I drop to 15BI, I don't know if I can grind it out anymore, knowing that 3 sessions pretty much erased months of my work.
 
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TimovieMan

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This is exactly why BRM dictates 50 BIs, because 25 BI downswings happen even to the best players.

From the sound of it, the downswing also put you on tilt, so you could be dropping more BIs than you should because of that.

With the way you're looking at your roll, it could be best to separate your actual playing roll from your bonuses/rakeback. Maybe consistently withdraw all your bonuses/rakeback and put those in the bank, so you never need to withdraw from your actual roll? That way you could easily go back to NL50 with an adequate amount of BIs again, and grind your way up again.

BRM is very important, but for proper BRM, you need to be able to drop down a level when a downswing hits. If you keep playing NL100 until you're at 15BI, then that's a recipe for disaster, imo.
Basically, as soon as you drop below 2500$ in total, you should drop to NL50, imo. Don't let your ego/pride keep you from lowering your stakes.
 
nitulbhatia

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My advice is after such a big hit, sit back and analyse if you really want to feel this way? Do you want more such buy in losses at an even higher level where it will hurt even more? Because this is part of poker. Sometimes the losses get too far and make us wonder if its even worth it. Frankly there are better ways to make money in life. I have a full time job and business that pays well and i play only freerolls for entertainment. Playing freerolls will probably earn $500 to $1000 a year, but the entertainment is worth it for me. If i was in your place i would look for a new avenue to make money from, look for a full or part time job, start saving a little each month from what you have and gradually build up. Please dont blow your hard earned money up on online poker, its not worth it, youd feel like junk.
 
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lukeellul92

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You need to take a break, not every hand you've played is coolered, I can guarantee you have leaks that are exploitable at 100nl that are not so exploitable at 50nl or 25nl.

Don't feel bad! I Was playing 25nl a year ago and now I'm playing 2nl and building up my bankroll again , I know how much it sucks!

Maybe get back down to 50nl, build yourself up till you have 50-60bi for 100nl that you won't need to withdraw, then give it another crack!
 
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MinhANguyen

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You need to take a break, not every hand you've played is coolered, I can guarantee you have leaks that are exploitable at 100nl that are not so exploitable at 50nl or 25nl.

Don't feel bad! I Was playing 25nl a year ago and now I'm playing 2nl and building up my bankroll again , I know how much it sucks!

Maybe get back down to 50nl, build yourself up till you have 50-60bi for 100nl that you won't need to withdraw, then give it another crack!

Yes, I do have leaks but I am still a winning player at 100NL over a decent sample. The past 30k hands I've been coolered so much and sucked out on it's ridiculous. Running way below EV. Imagine losing like 8-10 BI with KK over 20k hands. That's like half my downswing. AA didn't hold up in multiple all-ins as well vs AK (lol) and KK (of course). I mean like what? How can I get the second nuts vs the nuts pre 5+ times over 20k hands and lose all of them? And AA vs KK only once and lose? I have never run my KK into AA so many times that I actually considered folding KK to a 4-bet everytime. And of course they always show me AA when I decide 'I haz KK. All-in."

Thing is, 50NL Zone on Bovada is only open 2-4 hrs a day, so I can't get a whole ton of volume with only 4 tables without Zone :(. Im thinking about moving down to 50NL though with my current $2k bankroll.
 
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lukeellul92

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Yes, I do have leaks but I am still a winning player at 100NL over a decent sample. The past 30k hands I've been coolered so much and sucked out on it's ridiculous. Running way below EV. Imagine losing like 8-10 BI with KK over 20k hands. That's like half my downswing. AA didn't hold up in multiple all-ins as well vs AK (lol) and KK (of course).

Thing is, 50NL Zone on Bovada is only open 2-4 hrs a day, so I can't get a whole ton of volume with only 4 tables without Zone :(. Im thinking about moving down to 50NL though with my current $2k bankroll.

Ohh you're in America? =/ More lucrative playing live if you can! aha.

Just gotta tough it out then I think! the swings go in your favour eventually.
 
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MinhANguyen

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Ohh you're in America? =/ More lucrative playing live if you can! aha.

Just gotta tough it out then I think! the swings go in your favour eventually.

Yeah, I'm in America so the sites available here are limited. I could crush live, but I don't have the BR. Not sure if I would have the patience to see only 20-30 hands per hour too. Don't even have a car to drive even if I wanted to go haha.

Also, anyone show a profit from getting KK all-in pre over a super large sample? I don't know if I'm having selective memory right now, but it seems that KK at Bovada, especially Zone, is only good for paying off AA in preflop 4-bet/5-bet wars....
 
fletchdad

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I read your title and was gonna say "been there, done that" but it was at .10 nl...lol.

I cannot play bovada, so I dont know how the HH thing is. Can (and do) you save your HH to your HD? That is the best way to see if it really is coolers. I get it that you have a decent sample size, and can claim to be beating those stakes, but perhaps some weird play is creeping in here and there. I think you know what I mean. So a review is gonna be a good thing.

In any case, downswings suck, and, just like the weather, will happen contrary to your plans.....
 
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MinhANguyen

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I read your title and was gonna say "been there, done that" but it was at .10 nl...lol.

I cannot play bovada, so I dont know how the HH thing is. Can (and do) you save your HH to your HD? That is the best way to see if it really is coolers. I get it that you have a decent sample size, and can claim to be beating those stakes, but perhaps some weird play is creeping in here and there. I think you know what I mean. So a review is gonna be a good thing.

In any case, downswings suck, and, just like the weather, will happen contrary to your plans.....

I think for Bovada you need PT4/HM2 and some other programs to convert the hand history. Was going to buy them when my BR reached $6k, but can't anymore. Yeah, I know what you mean by weird plays. Tilt did definitely make my downswing worse, but at least 80% of my downswing is cooler after cooler and set-up hands. Imagine losing like 12BI+ with KK/AA/AK over a 20k hand sample all-in pre. Not even considering postflop suckouts/coolers/constant 2/3 outers.
 
arty220

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I am a beginner player and i don't have a lot of experience. But i lost around 800 BB in 3 minutes. 2 times KK against AA and coolered set. It's hard to be objective after it, but you have to take a break and start playing again with renewed emotion.

Sorry for my bad english
 
fletchdad

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I think for Bovada you need PT4/HM2 and some other programs to convert the hand history. Was going to buy them when my BR reached $6k, but can't anymore. Yeah, I know what you mean by weird plays. Tilt did definitely make my downswing worse, but at least 80% of my downswing is cooler after cooler and set-up hands. Imagine losing like 12BI+ with KK/AA/AK over a 20k hand sample all-in pre. Not even considering postflop suckouts/coolers/constant 2/3 outers.



If you can save the HH to your HD, there may be a way with another program to review play.

This is one I used and it was really good for reviewing games. I dont know if it works for bovada, maybe there is a way to use it??? (Anyone know about this?)
http://www.universal-replayer.net/index.html
 
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Jreece18

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Have you taken a break since this downswing? Feeling demoralised and frustrated is actually tilt and whilst I don't know you personally, from the amount of poker you play I can tell that you don't actually want to stop playing. What was your winrate at 50nl? Take a break, drop to 50nl and grind back up?

I can't quite imagine experiencing that big of a downswing, but I seriously just think it sounds like you need to take a break and get some of your positivity towards poker back. Frame your shot at 100nl as an experience that has improved you, rather than a failure that's destroyed your months of work. Unless you're playing professionally, it's about playing/learning the game, not the money.
 
vinylspiros

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slow down. move down and dont be in a rush. play solid and do what you know works. it will lead to profit sooner or later. ride the wave man. it sucks but u know what u signed up for.

Everyones been on a swing of 20 buy ins.


Key point is not to think about the months of hard work that were erased but to make small goals and reach them without tilting.
 
bitowl

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I've had 3-4 BI downswings very occasionally, and once a 14BI downswing at 25NL which made me almost want to quit. I did work myself out of that downswing pretty quickly. Maybe 3-5 sessions, and after that I never had anymore than 2-4BI downswings over 200k+ hands total at 25NL/50NL/100NL (excluding my downswing right now of course). Now I'm starting to feel like quitting again somewhat.

If the worst downswing you had over a 200k hand sample was 14BI then you had a god mode top 1% outlier run of luck. In a way this was unlucky, as you haven't built up any mental toughness. You're listing off bad beat stories and crying about wanting to quit. Most players deal with this in their first 50k hands at microstakes.

You're shaken and won't be playing your A game. You need to drop down stakes and regrind confidence. Having too big an ego to drop down stakes is a massive leak. 50nl isn't even that low. It's probably a better hourly than some McShit job.
 
TeUnit

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sorry to hear about the downswing, but you are that much closer to the sunnyside of variance
 
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Please don't take my CONSTRUCTIVE criticism too hard. You say you are a bankroll nit, however it may not appear so. You said you once lost 14 buy-ins during 1 session. To practice proper BRM you should ONLY lose 4 BI's max per session & that is if ONLY the game is really juicy.

You said you lost 19 BI's over 3 sessions. At the extreme most you should have lost 12 BI's & that was if every single session was extremely juicy. You definitely need to institute a stop-loss to your repertoire.

When I play my stop loss is 3-max BI's & that means I had a horrible session. The ONLY time I will allow myself above the 3-max BI's threshold is if the game is so JUICY that I never want to leave & even then I will ONLY allow myself a TOTAL of 4-max BI's.
 
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MinhANguyen

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is poker really this mean

Of course it is. It's not uncommon to lose multiple all-ins in a row as a huge favorite. Or be on the losing end of coolets over and over. And that happening just a few multiple times in a row a leads to those huge downswings. Poker doesn't always reward you just because you're playing good. You need to be lucky, short-term anyway, and have your hands hold up. In the long run, which may be millions of hands, luck should theoretically even out. In the short run, variance can be a bitch...
 
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MinhANguyen

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Please don't take my CONSTRUCTIVE criticism too hard. You say you are a bankroll nit, however it may not appear so. You said you once lost 14 buy-ins during 1 session. To practice proper BRM you should ONLY lose 4 BI's max per session & that is if ONLY the game is really juicy.

You said you lost 19 BI's over 3 sessions. At the extreme most you should have lost 12 BI's & that was if every single session was extremely juicy. You definitely need to institute a stop-loss to your repertoire.

When I play my stop loss is 3-max BI's & that means I had a horrible session. The ONLY time I will allow myself above the 3-max BI's threshold is if the game is so JUICY that I never want to leave & even then I will ONLY allow myself a TOTAL of 4-max BI's.

Honestly, I don't know what happened that night. It was late, and I was tired. I never dropped more than 3-4 BI in a session, which is rare in the first place. And I always quit before things got out of control. I wasn't playing my A-game, but it definitely wasn't worse than my B-game, which is probably slightly winnning or breakeven at worst. I was a BR nit from the beginning. I didn't plan on shotting 50NL until I hit 50BI. I started out with 20 for 25NL, so getting to 50 for 50NL was a long way. So I took a small shot at 50NL at 40BI and did alright. Then shotted 100NL at like 25BI due to only because Bovada's annoying Zone operation hours of 2-3hrs a day at exactly 9ish-12ish A.M. Once I got to 100NL, I could play whenever I wanted so I was content and did not even dare on shotting 200NL one bit until $10k or $11k (50-55BI).
 
IPlay

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Here is my shot at 100NL

tzsXd8M.png


Was doing ok and then bam, look how hard I fell off. I think I would be break even at best even if I had a solid bank roll. Bovada is a tricky site since it is anonymous because you might join a table and see something crazy and think wow this guy is a fish. But in reality he is a super solid reg that was adjusting to another fish but you don't know that because of anon and this makes your ego large thinking you have a good sized edge at a table when you don't.

I once saw you say that people at 100NL probably can't count combos which really shows how much you are underestimating the level you are playing at. Especially in zone. Also the fact that you don't have any type of tracker really baffles me. Do you just play 100NL and not review your hands/track results?

With that said I feel like me and you actually have a lot in common in life and poker and if you ever want to vent to someone that 100% understands where your coming from shoot me a pm or something, I'd be happy to talk about these things and it will probably be beneficial to both of us.

Or you can call on Poker Master Extraordinaire Aaron Soto and get some tips on how to make villains fold before they suck out on the river. :p
 
IPlay

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I also think you should withdraw and leave yourself a 40 buy in roll for 25NL and invest into PT4 and Bovada Card Catcher because any decent player at 100NL is going to have this equipment and constantly study and improve their game while you are not so you are giving up a huge edge here.
 
SBEP

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U had previous downswing the 14 BI one, u worked yourself out of it, dont worry ull get out of this one 2, u have to remember there are always dry patches on your way of building a BR, so u ride it out, i remember when i lost half my BR, i was so pisssed if u have cut my hand, no blood would u spill, and tried to win it back, and lost half of the half i was left with, maaaaaaaaan i almost lost it, but since then, i was back on a winning road, won everything i lost and managed to double my BR, i know the next dry patch might be around the corner, but i know how to handle it now :D
 
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MinhANguyen

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Here is my shot at 100NL

tzsXd8M.png


Was doing ok and then bam, look how hard I fell off. I think I would be break even at best even if I had a solid bank roll. Bovada is a tricky site since it is anonymous because you might join a table and see something crazy and think wow this guy is a fish. But in reality he is a super solid reg that was adjusting to another fish but you don't know that because of anon and this makes your ego large thinking you have a good sized edge at a table when you don't.

I once saw you say that people at 100NL probably can't count combos which really shows how much you are underestimating the level you are playing at. Especially in zone. Also the fact that you don't have any type of tracker really baffles me. Do you just play 100NL and not review your hands/track results?

With that said I feel like me and you actually have a lot in common in life and poker and if you ever want to vent to someone that 100% understands where your coming from shoot me a pm or something, I'd be happy to talk about these things and it will probably be beneficial to both of us.

Or you can call on Poker Master Extraordinaire Aaron Soto and get some tips on how to make villains fold before they suck out on the river. :p

Yeah, 100NL on Bovada is pretty tough, especially on Zone. The Zone players put me in tough spots constantly, and bluff-catching/putting people on ranges is something I've had to improve on. People are pretty aggro and make much more moves than lower stakes, and are capable of putting us on ranges.

I was probably exaggerating when I said the 100NL can't range us properly. The decent regs are definitely capable. But there are fish here and there that pay me off 3-barrels with junk like TPBK/TPNK or stack off with top pair <60BB. They are, however, far fewer than at 25NL/50NL. It's harder to get paid off at 100NL since people can range us better and fold to 3-barrels much better, and we get bluffed a lot more when we cap our range on certain flops/runouts.

However, I do think I still hold a decent edge over the 100NL players, especially postflop. The variance is definitely crazier than 50NL/25NL, since my skill edge has decreased and the game is super aggro. My graphs looks exactly like yours but is over 40-50k hands, and I'm still up 10BI from when I started. Kinda sad, as I was once up 30BI :(

Yeah, I've been playing on Bovada with no tracker for almost half a million hands lol. Other than calculating my winrate for most sessions, I don't really track results. About 1 1/2 months in, I realized we can see the hands at showdown immediately after the hand in-game. I use that to study. Most of my learning has come from constantly studying the showdown hands. Seeing how people play draws, TP, try to hero call, bluff, etc. It's super super useful. If I didn't do this there's no way I would have beaten 50NL/100NL. Would probably be a marginal winner or slightly above BE at 25NL still lol.

Yeah, I think we do have a decent amount in common. Thanks for the offer :). Same goes to you.

Dang, nice soul read. I've learned a lot from Poker Master Aaron Soto. I 3-bet shove/3-bet squeeze AA/KK OOP or overbet shove the flop with overpairs and TPTK a high % of the time so people can't outdraw on me with their 76o/K2s. That post gave me a good laugh.
 
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MinhANguyen

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U had previous downswing the 14 BI one, u worked yourself out of it, dont worry ull get out of this one 2, u have to remember there are always dry patches on your way of building a BR, so u ride it out, i remember when i lost half my BR, i was so pisssed if u have cut my hand, no blood would u spill, and tried to win it back, and lost half of the half i was left with, maaaaaaaaan i almost lost it, but since then, i was back on a winning road, won everything i lost and managed to double my BR, i know the next dry patch might be around the corner, but i know how to handle it now :D

Thanks for the encouragement. I dropped a lot in confidence, and when things go bad it feels like it'll never end. My mind is more clear now after a 2 day break, and I am shotting 100NL again. I will either drop down to 50NL or maybeeee withdraw if I drop a certain amount immediately. I am up 2.6BI since my last downswing. Still running like shit, but playing a lot better, less tilted, making the right laydowns, and making the right hero calls/bluff-catching well. Lost two all-ins in a row in like 30 minutes again (totallyyy surprised) AA vs KJo OESD OTF and set of 7s vs TPNK + FD OTF. Man I can't get a break from getting sucked out on. I did run my KK into AA (again!), but sucked out for the first time to runner runner diamonds lol. I had KK the previous hand before vs Q high and correctly called a 40BB overbet shove from a shortstack on an A high flop, and then get 4-bet next hand at the exact same table with KK. Considered folding KK to a 4-bet for the 7th time this week, but just jammed in it anyway. Obv AA but sucked out. It's unbelievable that like 12-14 of my BI downswing is from losing with KK/AK/AA all-in preflop over 20k hands. I think I am bleeding money overall with KK all-in pre... Not being biased but looking back from 25NL-100NL, I've seen too many KK vs AA. A LOT of people flat AK/QQ to a 3-bet, which are the hands we pray to see when we get it in with Kings.
 
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