15 out all in call nearing final table

Alon Ipser

Alon Ipser

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full tilt poker Game #6816839711: $5 + $0.50 Tournament (51711240), Table 22 - 1200/2400 Ante 300 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:35:41 ET - 2008/06/14
Seat 1: the Ace-assin (44,186)
Seat 2: FreeHighFive (85,150)
Seat 3: Alon Ipser (76,295)
Seat 5: PPPants (44,450)
Seat 6: Newqy (64,630)
the Ace-assin antes 300
FreeHighFive antes 300
Alon Ipser antes 300
PPPants antes 300
Newqy antes 300
Alon Ipser posts the small blind of 1,200
PPPants posts the big blind of 2,400
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Alon Ipser [Th Qh]
Newqy folds
the Ace-assin calls 2,400
FreeHighFive has 15 seconds left to act
FreeHighFive folds
Alon Ipser raises to 7,200
PPPants calls 4,800
the Ace-assin calls 4,800
*** FLOP *** [Jh Ks 5h]
Alon Ipser checks
PPPants bets 36,950, and is all in
the Ace-assin folds
Alon Ipser .....



I believe I'm sitting 3rd with 10 left. I've been aggressive and have been stealing blinds but PPPants doesn't go away this time. So after his all in push I am assuming he has either AA, KK or AK. I've got 15 outs and even if I don't hit I'm still in the game. This is a no brainer call, isn't it?



.... calls 36,950
PPPants shows [Kd Ac]
Alon Ipser shows [Th Qh]
*** TURN *** [Jh Ks 5h] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [Jh Ks 5h Ts] [Jc]
PPPants shows two pair, Kings and Jacks
Alon Ipser shows two pair, Jacks and Tens
PPPants wins the pot (97,000) with two pair, Kings and Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 97,000 | Rake 0
Board: [Jh Ks 5h Ts Jc]
Seat 1: the Ace-assin folded on the Flop
Seat 2: FreeHighFive (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: Alon Ipser (small blind) showed [Th Qh] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Tens
Seat 5: PPPants (big blind) showed [Kd Ac] and won (97,000) with two pair, Kings and Jacks
Seat 6: Newqy folded before the Flop
 
Alon Ipser

Alon Ipser

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oops put this in the wrong forum. sorry
 
D

Dr_Dick

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You can make an argument for either, call or fold. In fact, you put the villain on a range of hands that would make it easier to fold. The blinds relative to your stack are still low, so why gamble here? Given you have put villain on AK/KK/AA (why KK, you really think KK pushes all-in here) it is up to you to either fold and maintain a healthy stack or gamble. I don't have a problem with the call, just saying it is not a "no brainer".

And as for how you played the hand, not good as you should have lead the flop. It would not have changed the end result as AK would have pushed back, but there was absolutely no reason for you not to lead this flop after being the preflop raiser and hitting a flop with 15 outs. At the time of the flop you have no idea villain has AK, they could be calling with any mid PP hoping to hit a set, suited connectors, etc. You were the preflop raiser, given you have 15 outs you should be making a solid continuation bet, not giving up the hand.
 
pitter22

pitter22

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At this point in the tournament the only time im putting chips in is when im ahead. In knowing your behind I would say this is a bad call. But you put him on the right cards its just how you play. if you hit good on ya. just not my style :)
 
K

kayakjam

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pot odds

I'm a beginner but it seems to me that you had pot odds of about 1.6 and your odds for 15 outs was about 2.1. For me that would not have been good enough to call.
 
Alon Ipser

Alon Ipser

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I also looked at the stack sizes. The all in is for him not me. If I hit, which according to my chart is 1 in 1.85 and better than 50/50, I am chip leader and one less player. If I miss, I'm down but not out by a long ways. My attitude towards these tournies is to win, not to get one step further.

Thanks for the responses. Goes to show that it wasn't a no brainer but I do believe I would still play it the same with the exception of my post flop limp. Does it change anything because there are 2 other players in the pot istead of 1?
 
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Dashir

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I'm a beginner but it seems to me that you had pot odds of about 1.6 and your odds for 15 outs was about 2.1. For me that would not have been good enough to call.
Those odds are if there was only one card left. Since they are all-in on the flop, he gets to see two cards for his money and is actually a slight favorite.
 
V

viking999

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I'm wondering what makes you put him on such a tight range. A player would have to be a real tight-ass for me to put him on that small a range.

Against that range you could maybe fold, because you are weak versus KK due to his full house redraws and AhKh due to your flush draw being dead. Even then, it's a stretch to fold. Those are the two most unlikely hands. Plus, you're getting close to enough pot odds to call versus KK.

So I'd call without much hesitation. You really need to get in the top 3 spots to make a lot of money, and forfeiting clear +EV calls like this one is not the way to get there. As a general rule, I'll call in any clear +EV spot if not much more than half my stack is at risk.

Out of curiosity, what is the difference between 10th and 9th place?
 
Jillychemung

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Those odds are if there was only one card left. Since they are all-in on the flop, he gets to see two cards for his money and is actually a slight favorite.

With the range he put his opponent on, he is not the favorite.

Board: Jh Ks 5h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.219% 46.22% 00.00% 9609 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 53.781% 53.78% 00.00% 11181 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
 
M

mickyb

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This feels fairly close. A few points -

- You have a decision whether to invest 40% of the chips into this pot

- If it was a satellite with 8 going through, you'd protect your tournament life and fold. If it was winner takes all, then each chip you gain is equally valuable, and it would be an auto-call, because you only need to win the pot 40% of the time in order to show an expected gain. Regular MTTs are somewhere between these two scenarios, but the exact value of the chips you might gain compared to the chips you might lose depends on the exact prize structure. My guess is you'd need to win this pot about 50% of the time to make it worth investing 40% of the chips to it. Look for an ICM calculator if you want to know the exact figure.

- Obviously it's more complicated than just you having 15 outs. Your opponent could have AKH, in which case you are a massive underdog. Alternatively, he could have AH or KH, in which case two hearts coming (unlikely but not impossible) would give him the pot. On the other hand, he could have a weaker hand than the ones you've placed him on.

This is pretty damn close IMO.
 
Alon Ipser

Alon Ipser

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I'm wondering what makes you put him on such a tight range. A player would have to be a real tight-ass for me to put him on that small a range.

So I'd call without much hesitation. You really need to get in the top 3 spots to make a lot of money, and forfeiting clear +EV calls like this one is not the way to get there. As a general rule, I'll call in any clear +EV spot if not much more than half my stack is at risk.

Out of curiosity, what is the difference between 10th and 9th place?

I didn't say and don't think it matters but this was a 6 max tourney. Based on what I remember this was a tight table and I didn't see PPP pushing without a monster. 9th and 10th was $21.11, 7th and 8th was $27.14. 1st was $251.25
With the range he put his opponent on, he is not the favorite.

Board: Jh Ks 5h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.219% 46.22% 00.00% 9609 0.00 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 53.781% 53.78% 00.00% 11181 0.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }

I actually thought I had better odds that this with 15 outs but I guess that is explained by micky below

- Obviously it's more complicated than just you having 15 outs. Your opponent could have AKH, in which case you are a massive underdog. Alternatively, he could have AH or KH, in which case two hearts coming (unlikely but not impossible) would give him the pot. On the other hand, he could have a weaker hand than the ones you've placed him on.

This is pretty damn close IMO.
 
rwilson

rwilson

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I've always been under the impression that 14 outs or over on the flop and you're slightly ahead?? With 15 outs you should be a 54% chance to make your hand by the river. Those stats above have confused me a bit?

Unless this guy has AKh, which is highly unlikely considering there's two hearts on the board, and two in your hand, then you're in very good shape to knock someone out and add approx. 40% extra to your stack.

As it turned out this guy was drawing dead to any ace and was dead to the Kh.. So assuming you have 15 real outs that won't improve his hand above yours, which you had, then you have to be between 53-54% mathematically to make your hand by the river don't you?

I can't see how you're not ahead here?

Having said that it's still a coin flip and whether I called this would be dependent on what the tourney's worth, how many are left in, how many chips I'm left with, what mood I'm in! etc.. I'd almost always call here.. if you're an odds man then the odds are compelling you to call.. if you're a survival man then you might want to fold and wait for a better spot.

I think when you add the pot-odds, the advantage of taking outright chip lead of the table, and the chance to knock someone out then this is worthy of a call IMO.
 
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mickyb

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Unless this guy has AKh, which is highly unlikely considering there's two hearts on the board, and two in your hand

Him having AhKh is just as likely as him having the AcKc or AdKd.
 
Jillychemung

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The 50/50 point is with a range of TT+,AQo+,AQs+ any better range puts opponent ahead after the flop and any worse puts OP ahead.

Board: Jh Ks 5h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.061% 48.83% 00.23% 20305 94.50 { QhTh }
Hand 1: 50.939% 50.71% 00.23% 21086 94.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
 
M

machud

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picking spots

Tourny poker is more about picking your spots. I believe a fold was necessary because at this point in the tourny 1 crippling hand can kill you. If Im calling off more than 60% of my chips i want to be sure i have a made hand. I think a continuation bet was neccessary though, If he reraises it you can assume you were right he had a big starter. The beauty of tourny play..anything can happen at the FT.

Not a horrible play with your outs, but i prefer not to call behind.
 
rwilson

rwilson

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Him having AhKh is just as likely as him having the AcKc or AdKd.


hmm.. obviously if you're holding two hearts and there's two on the board, the probability that the opponent is also holding two hearts is lessened greatly
 
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mickyb

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hmm.. obviously if you're holding two hearts and there's two on the board, the probability that the opponent is also holding two hearts is lessened greatly

You are correct, but this doesn't contradict my statement that he is just likely to have AhKh as AcKc.

The probability of any given opponent having *any* two hearts is lessened greatly. This is because there are many fewer combinations left. 9 hearts out means 36 possible combinations of two hearts, whereas 13 clubs out means 78 possible combinations of two clubs, so an oppo having any two clubs is more than twice as likely as him having any two hearts.

However, the probability of him having two *specific* hearts (that we can't see already) is still the same as the probability of him having two specific clubs.

We are making the assumption that our oppo has AK; The only ace or king that he can't have is the KS, because we can see that. All other combinations - be it AhKh, AcKc, AhKc, AcKh or AsKd - are equally probable.
 
rwilson

rwilson

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Point taken.. I think we both know what each other mean
 
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Ihatecowboys

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call without hesitation. you still have chips to work with even if you lose. worst you can probably expect is probably him holding rockets with a heart, but still doesn't make it a bad call. he could have Ah Kh but come on the chance of both of them being hearts is 1/16 if you have him on AK. not likely at all. if anything, the most questionable thing you did is call the raise with the hand you had out of position.
 
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