You Are The Villian: Flopped Str8 Flush Draw

Stick66

Stick66

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OK. Here's a bit of a reversal. We are going to look at this hand through the eyes of the villian. I'll still refer to myself as "me" & "I" and NeckXTR as "he" & "him", but I want to know what you would do if you were NeckXTR here.

He's played 13 hands against me before this. He's seen me win a very small pot with a flop continuation bet getting all folds and win another small one with a King-high checkdown. Otherwise, I haven't been in any pot except from the blinds. (Not fair if you already know how I play because he doesn't much.) He has never been above a $5 stack the whole time.

The flop gives him an OE straight draw, a flush draw, AND an OE straight-flush draw. Technically, he has 15 outs at around 2-1 against. There is about $1.30 in the pot showing after rake and I bet $1.10 giving him 2.18-1 pot odds. He has $4.30 left in his stack.

As we ignore his bad preflop call, how solid is his flop draw? If you are the villian, what do you do here? Call, fold, raise, or push?



fulltiltpoker Game #3210921944: Table Pueblo Vista - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:08:38 ET - 2007/08/10
Seat 1: MrSticker ($10.60)
Seat 2: slowpoke slim ($4.60)
Seat 3: JusteBYoSelf ($3.75)
Seat 4: MagooVU ($9.90)
Seat 5: berrrrt ($2.75)
Seat 6: MKKE ($3.40)
Seat 7: cancerman808 ($16.55)
Seat 8: NeCkXT ($4.65)
Seat 9: twothreecall ($9.50)
NeCkXT posts the small blind of $0.05
twothreecall posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NeCkXTr [Tc 8c]
MrSticker raises to $0.35
slowpoke slim folds
JusteBYoSelf folds
MagooVU folds
berrrrt calls $0.35
MKKE folds
cancerman808 folds
NeCkXT calls $0.30
twothreecall calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [Jc Kd 9c]
NeCkXT checks
twothreecall checks
MrSticker bets $1.10
berrrrt folds
NeCkXT .....
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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The flop gives him an OE straight draw, a flush draw, AND an OE straight-flush draw. Technically, he has 15 outs at around 2-1 against. There is about $1.30 in the pot showing after rake and I bet $1.10 giving him 2.18-1 pot odds. ..
Well that's wrong for a start. Using the rough rule of thumb of 4X outs with 2 cards to come, that makes him 60% favourite.

I'd play it as a winner and put you all in. Make you make the decision, you'll either fold or call with me ahead.

(and pre-flop call isn't that bad. It's only 35 cents).
 
Stick66

Stick66

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Well that's wrong for a start. Using the rough rule of thumb of 4X outs with 2 cards to come, that makes him 60% favourite.
Your correction would be true if he were to push and get 2 cards for one action. But there is only 1 card per street, so his odds on 1 card making his draw with 15 outs on the turn card only is exactly 2.1-1 against (page 30; Small Stakes Hold'em by Sklansky, Miller, & Malmuth). If he just calls the flop, his odds could change after the turn card if bet sizes change during river betting. (But then his short stack might come into play. Hmmm, perplexing.)
robwhufc said:
(and pre-flop call isn't that bad. It's only 35 cents).
Do you mean the amount was small or that the preflop pot was growing? I honestly could be wrong, but I've always learned that to call 3x the BB with T8s you'd have to be getting about 4-1 on your money or better. Even with the implied odds of the BB player calling, the best he could get preflop was 3-1.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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Your correction would be true if he were to push and get 2 cards for one action. But there is only 1 card per street, so his odds on 1 card making his draw with 15 outs on the turn card only is exactly 2.1-1 against
I cant see that folding a hand when you are favourite to win is a good idea, just because there is the possibility you may not have pot odds to call the next bet if you miss the turn.

Looking again at the hand history, i dont think i'd be in the situation you described. I'd have led out the betting with this hand, trying to build up a big pot to match my great odds of winning. 90 cents to try and keep all 4 in the pot? I dont see why he checked.

P.S I didn't see that there was still someone to act when I said go all in. I'd probably be tempted to call, hoping that he'd call as well (he'll hopefully be dragged in when it's 3 handed). I wouldn't consider folding though.

and PPS, I dont think you can talk about 3xBB and pot odds when you are at this level. Bottom line is, he had to bet 30cents, and that's a negligible amount for the vast majority of adults. Put a nought or 2 noughts on the end of the bets and it will be a different matter. And implied odds are there when it's No Limit, he could conceivably be making $8+ here from a 30 cent investment - 8T suited isn't at the top end of the calling range, but it isn't 27os either.
 
A

alan1983

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Weve got 4$ and have to call 1.10$ oop. I shove here.
 
P

protoskull

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I would guess you had a decent hand, TPTK but would still call. So many outs to hit, but I would want the guy after me to call too hence no push. I would also hope your Big Slick was not Clubs :)
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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Easy and standard shove. Sometimes with a big draw you can just call to try to get other players to tag along, but here there is only one other player active in the hand besides hero and villain, and he checked. Guy who checked either has nada (clearly the most likely) or he checked a strong hand that he's getting all-in with no matter what. Calling sucks because we're out of position and 12 of our 15 outs would be really poorly disguised should they hit on the turn (Q or club)
 
bubbasbestbabe

bubbasbestbabe

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Poooooosh! That's the only play here.
 
Effexor

Effexor

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What they ^^^^^^ said already.

In the immortal, and frankly timeless words of those poker gurus, (salt-n-pepa)

Salt and pepas here, and were in effect

Want you to push it, babe

Coolin by day then at night working up a sweat

Cmon girls, lets go show the guys that we know

How to become number one in a hot party show

Now push it


Ah, push it - push it good

Ah, push it - push it real good

Ah, push it - push it good

Ah, push it - p-push it real good
 
J

joeeagles

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Shove w/o any doubt. OESFD on the flop you go to war, and his stack really doesn't give any other option, he has $4.30 and is facing a $1.10 bet.

Easy and standard shove, as Combu said.
 
B

broncos53

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Push to all in hope for fold even if you dont then he still has outs to win so pushing is best i think!
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Routine shove given stack sizes - we want to see both remaining board cards and we might even have a bit of fold equity.

We can't fold because we have a zillion outs and we can't call because we're not getting odds to call assuming it's more likely than not we'll be facing a turn shove if we do call.

We're only *really* worried about villain (or 'you') holding AcKc/AcQc. The only other problem hand you could have would be QT, but you don't raise that UTG. Given that that's only two specific hands in something like an AA-99/AK-AQ range, it really is an easy shove.
 
Stick66

Stick66

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Wow! I guess I've got some more studying to do. Here I thought shoving on a draw was almost always a bad play, but I guess I was wrong. I myself was really trying to figure if he played that flop badly or not.

Regarding one of my original questions "How solid is his flop draw?", I meant how much should he worry that I have a higher flush draw? If he puts me on 2 higher clubs, that would REALLY cut down on his outs. Discussion?


FullTiltPoker Game #3210921944: Table Pueblo Vista - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:08:38 ET - 2007/08/10
Seat 1: MrSticker ($10.60)
Seat 2: slowpoke slim ($4.60)
Seat 3: JusteBYoSelf ($3.75)
Seat 4: MagooVU ($9.90)
Seat 5: berrrrt ($2.75)
Seat 6: MKKE ($3.40)
Seat 7: cancerman808 ($16.55)
Seat 8: NeCkXT ($4.65)
Seat 9: twothreecall ($9.50)
NeCkXT posts the small blind of $0.05
twothreecall posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NeCkXt [Tc 8c]
MrSticker raises to $0.35
slowpoke slim folds
JusteBYoSelf folds
MagooVU folds
berrrrt calls $0.35
MKKE folds
cancerman808 folds
NeCkXT calls $0.30
twothreecall calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [Jc Kd 9c]
NeCkXT checks
twothreecall checks
MrSticker bets $1.10
berrrrt folds
NeCkXT raises to $4
twothreecall folds
MrSticker has 15 seconds left to act
MrSticker raises to $6.90
NeCkXT calls $0.30, and is all in
MrSticker shows [Kc Ac]
NeCkXT shows [Tc 8c]
Uncalled bet of $2.60 returned to MrSticker
*** TURN *** [Jc Kd 9c] [5s]
*** RIVER *** [Jc Kd 9c 5s] [9h]
MrSticker shows two pair, Kings and Nines
NeCkXT shows a pair of Nines
MrSticker wins the pot ($9) with two pair, Kings and Nines
NeCkXT is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $10 | Rake $1
Board: [Jc Kd 9c 5s 9h]
Seat 1: MrSticker showed [Kc Ac] and won ($9) with two pair, Kings and Nines
Seat 2: slowpoke slim didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: JusteBYoSelf didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: MagooVU didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: berrrrt folded on the Flop
Seat 6: MKKE didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: cancerman808 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: NeCkXT (small blind) showed [Tc 8c] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 9: twothreecall (big blind) folded on the Flop
 
Last edited:
vanquish

vanquish

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Wow! I guess I've got some more studying to do. Here I thought shoving on a draw was almost always a bad play, but I guess I was wrong.

This may be an oversimplification, but I look at it this way:
In cash games, +EV means get your chips in, regardless whether you have a draw or a made hand.
So, say you have some type of drawing hand where you would be 51% to win.
Shoving is +EV, so it's the right play.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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shove unless the 2 people left to act are super calling stations, then i price them in either with a call or a raise to ~$3
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Regarding one of my original questions "How solid is his flop draw?", I meant how much should he worry that I have a higher flush draw? If he puts me on 2 higher clubs, that would REALLY cut down on his outs. Discussion?

We're only *really* worried about villain (or 'you') holding AcKc/AcQc. The only other problem hand you could have would be QT, but you don't raise that UTG. Given that that's only two specific hands in something like an AA-99/AK-AQ range, it really is an easy shove.

:p
 
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