Whats the correct river bet here?

calibanboy

calibanboy

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pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)
CO ($196)
Hero ($231)
SB ($227.60)
BB ($337.65)
UTG ($175.10)
MP ($197)
Preflop: Hero is Button with
9d.gif
,
9c.gif
.
UTG raises to $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, 2 folds.
Flop: ($15)
3h.gif
,
2d.gif
,
5h.gif
(2 players)
UTG bets $11, Hero calls $11.
Turn: ($37)
5c.gif
(2 players)
UTG bets $22, Hero calls $22.
River: ($81)
9h.gif
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero.......????
 
T

TheReaper

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With the flush out there I'd make a smaller bet, maybe a 1/3 to 1/2 the pot. He's most likely not going to pay out very much so I'd try to get what you can and be content if he folds.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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Flush doesn't matter, he has a boat. Bet out whatever you think he'll call, maybe 3/4 pot would do it.
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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Ah better yet just bet the 80, unless you think he'll raise a smaller bet. I very strongly doubt he has quads, so you have the nuts. If you can induce a raise, then push it.
 
T

TheReaper

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Flush doesn't matter, he has a boat

My thought was though, his opponent probably hasn't put him on the boat, but has put him on the flush. That being the case it may be hard to get a payoff on a bigger bet. It's definately going to depend on the opponent though.
 
dj11

dj11

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Assuming villain is semi conscious, he will fold to any bet unless he hit his flush, in which case he is silently praying that you will attempt to steal it so he can check raise you.

You should have 2 thoughts here

1 He hit his flush

2 He didn't flush

He may have paired or even set the board.

If you bet the previous bet of $22 and he hit his flush, he will raise and you can go into Marlon Brando mode, put on an act, then shove.

If you bet that same $22 and he was fishing, then he folds.

But you want value here. How about half the previous bet? $11. He might have paired, and a retrenchment like that might suggest you were fishing, and only have ace high. In that case he raises, and you go for a pissing contest, minraising him back. Praying he will do likewise. I think the potential for a big pot here makes this alternative attractive.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Flush doesn't matter, he has a boat. Bet out whatever you think he'll call, maybe 3/4 pot would do it.

The flush does matter - had that been the [9s] instead, we could bet a lot more with the thinking that he will expect to see a busted flush turned bluff a lot more.

Here, with the flush filling up and the board looking kind of scary to an overpair, we should probably bet a little smaller.

What are your stats/reads on villain?
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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I am on my other PC at the moment. I use poker office. He had a Wizard sign that means Tight Aggressive pre flop and aggressive post flop.

I find that this type of player can sometimes be a "bomb". Eg can explode at any time.

This is where I messed up. I posted this hand as I am a little annoyed with myself.

I considered the fact that as I smooth called twice, I was representing the flush 75% I also represent an overpair 25%. (Circa)

I considered that he either had the flush and was betting it before it hit and was drawing me in. He might have a set/FH or he might have nothing worth much here. ( 2P or lower ).

I thought about the small bet. Then something inside me said - ALL-IN. I did this. My thinking was he is only calling here if he has anything anyway, I might as well try and get it all. Flawed.

He thought and thought, used his time bank for 15 seconds and folded. he then asked my afterwards what I had. It niggled him big time. I am sue that your suggestions of a small bet would have paid better both here and in the long run.

Shortly afterwards I doubled up against another player on the table with a flopped set. i am not sure if this had anything to do with this play or not.
 
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