Long term explanation
Hi. Just curious how everyone would play in this situation vs. a balanced opponent and why?
Hero: MP
Villain: Button XX
Hero: Open 2.5x
Villain: Call
Flop:
Hero: Bet 40%
Villain: Call
Turn:
Hero: ???
Thanks.
Hello ventrolloquist thank you for posting your question.
I don't know what to do here in reality. It will depend on the limit you are playing in.
Because a balanced player at the micros could not be a balanced player at low and middle stakes.
If we are playing 100 NLHE it changes quite a bit who we are playing with and so our decision-making process.
Based on the assumption that you are playing at the micro-stakes (for the
hands you've already posted here), I will make a comment considering that a player is an average regular of the micros, okay?
I don't use too much 2.5x raise with any part of my range from MP. Players simply call too much at the micros, 3x changes a little their preflop
odds, specially from the blinds.
When a regular calls you in position you gotta have an ideia of which range he would be calling with, but you have to think all of this before the preflop raise.
It seems an okay flop for c-betting, but also seems a little bit drawie, or connected, not the worse flop in the word but not the best. We know that are some turns that will end up our action, such as a hearts. Do we have a plan for that before we decide to C-bet flop?
In a flop like this, is there a chance of villain calling me with medium and low pocket pairs and straight-flush draws? So, because of this I am more inclined to be 1/2 here for value, at maximum versus a player who really understands the game. Against weaker player I can bet a little bit more, to extract from worse Kings, Jacks, medium-sticky pocket pairs and the draws. We see there are many scenarios where we are going to be paid in a flop like this.
The turn is not good for our range, because we have no blockers of hearts and our hand loses strength. I would not be for value here, because if I bet, for example 1/3 pot and villain has a flush it is going to call me or raise and I lose value.
If I bet 1/3 pot and villain has two pair it will call. (KJ for example).
If I bet 1/2 pot in a situation like this, do I really expect to be paid by worse hands at the micros, versus a regular/balanced player? I don't think so. Why do we bet anyways?
A) For value: when we believe we have the best hand and Villain will pay with hands that are beated
B) For
bluff: when we believe we have the second hand, a draw, nothing at all, but we believe we can make Villain to fold a better hand
When we bet this turn of hearts are we really going to be paid by worse (at the micros?)
Regulars usually will not cold call too much preflop unless they see that either they have a hand that will have good playability plus position, or they will use position to bluff you out of the pot, no matter the outcome of the board. (Although we know there aren't too many postflop bluffs at the micros)
A regular player will most likely know your tendencies. A balanced player knows that you are opening a strong range from MP and knows how to adapt to that.
When a regular calls you on the flop you don't know it it has something indeed or if it is just trying to float you in later streets, so, what's my point?
The sole objects of the Cash Game, either 6-Max or Full-Ring are:
A) Steal the blinds
B) Play in Position
C) Play versus weaker/recreational/fishes
No matter how good you are, if you are facing a regular, your expectation is to win 1 BB/100, if you play close to perfect against them. Where the money really comes from is from players with a weaker technique and overall gameplan. So, it doesn't matter if you have AA or AKs versus a regular. It is much better to have XYo versus a recreational in position, because a recreational player will make huge ammounts of postflop errors and we can extract 10 BB/100 or even more playing versus this kind of players.
A long time ago, in a very far, far away galaxy, started the Leveling Wars: by the moment we are playing with a thinking player, no matter how mediocre the regular is, we know that there is a great chance of the player knows that we know. The regular have a notion that MP opens strong hands, that a flop where comes a Kx and a Jx with a flush draw favours both MP and BTN, being a very close spot, the regular knows that you are going to C-bet out of position if you hit your king and sometimes when you don't hit the king, because the flop is good for you, etc, so it is thinking what you are thinking, and this leveling war, this mental war is real hard.
To have edge upon regulars, you have to be a professional, which I am not, so, having information that I am also a weak regular, I will avoid playing with this guys, unless there is no other way. When I play with them I will try not to be too much exploitative and play a little bit of GTO mixed with Exploitative game.
For our lucky there aren't too many average regulars at the micros.
I see that many players when they are facing an unkown decent player, tends to do weird things, for the fact that if we don't know who the player is, there is a great chance of this player not being a regular (a regular plays everyday and we have statistics on it, right?)
Nonetheless, there are unknown players every single moment at the micros! If we play standard games against these guys we are going lose too much, because it is not because we don't the player that the player is a bad one!
I use to treat unknown player at micros, low and medium stakes as good regulars, not even average, so I avoid entering strange spots, where I don't know what to do, because I simply don't have information of the player, and this is not a expendible variable.
I will not c-bet this turn I guess. If Villain calls me in the turn, am I sending another barrel in the river if it doesn't come a Qx, a Tx, a Jx or a heart? And if they come, am I still firing or I will be calling regardless of the player? If I check turn and Villain bets, and I inclined to call? Any sizing?
If I bet this turn and Villain raises, am I happy? Can we bluff this guy on later streets? (at the micros?)
I hope it helps you!
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa