Can we value bet here ? 25NL 6max

J

jeffred1111

Visionary
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Total posts
792
Villain is very loose and very much on tilt (against me). His flop raise can mean anything. Can we value bet this river ?

Stacks:
- cormaggie with $14.75 - viva_444 with $18.95 - jeffred1111 with $25.40 - viddaloka with $37.35 - DeTszar with $32.90 - redscorpionx with $11.65



index.pl

Site: Pokerstars
- Dealt to jeffred1111:
:qd4:
:ah4:
- Sklansky group 3
Preflop:
- jeffred1111 raises $0.50 to $0.75
- viva_444 calls [$0.50]
- Folds: 4
- Potsize: $1.6
Flop:
:4d4:
:ac4: :6c4:
- viva_444: checks
- jeffred1111 bets [$1.30]
- viva_444 raises $1.30 to $2.60
- jeffred1111 calls [$1.30]
- Potsize: $6.8
Turn:
:8d4:

- viva_444: checks
- jeffred1111 bets [$4]
- viva_444 calls [$4]
- Potsize: $14.8
River:
:4c4:

- viva_444: checks
 
NineLions

NineLions

Advanced beginner
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Sep 20, 2006
Total posts
4,979
Hmmm, what do you make of his turn check/call?

Since he's checked the turn and river, you're right, his flop raise could mean anything. Even his turn call could be tilt or not wanting to look weak after raising the flop. If the latter is the case, I don't know if he's going to go so far as to call a river bet though.
 
royalburrito24

royalburrito24

Legend
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Aug 27, 2007
Total posts
2,417
cash games are about value betting, and i think you can get away with one here and know confidently you got the best of it
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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Jul 6, 2006
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I don't think he has 4 or a set or a better Ace - the only thing I'd be worried about is the flush draw which just got there. However since he checked the river, it's less likely that that's what he has, since he'd think you'll check behind a lot. But it's possible he's a nit who's putting you on AA and doesn't want to bet it because the board paired, which would give you a full house. On balance you should bet $6 and fold to a raise - unless you think he's likely to check-raise the river on a bluff, in which case you're safer checking behind.
 
J

jeffred1111

Visionary
Joined
Apr 16, 2007
Total posts
792
I don't think he has 4 or a set or a better Ace - the only thing I'd be worried about is the flush draw which just got there. However since he checked the river, it's less likely that that's what he has, since he'd think you'll check behind a lot. But it's possible he's a nit who's putting you on AA and doesn't want to bet it because the board paired, which would give you a full house. On balance you should bet $6 and fold to a raise - unless you think he's likely to check-raise the river on a bluff, in which case you're safer checking behind.
This was my reasoning since my image wasn't what you would call tight: the whole table was pretty passive and I had bet a straight/flush draw on flop + turn a few ahnds before against villain, plus, he knew I was raising semi-light in position. The min flop raise didn't bother me until the flush card hit and it made trip 4 to anybody having a four, and the way he was tilting, it was entirely possible he had one in his hand.

I like bet/fold, but in this spot, I might be intended to check it down because villain was tilting enough to be calling all streets with third pair/flush draw againt me + the stack sizes make it awakard for him to call and not push on the river. Plus, I don't know if we could get another street of value from worse A's here.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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Jul 6, 2006
Total posts
2,389
You're can definitely get some value from a worse Ace, but it's question of how much. Bet $0.25 and as Villain I'm calling the river with Jack-high. You just have to balance it against a) the probability that you're behind - if you think this is >50% then obviously don't bet, unless you think he'll fold a better hand (unlikely), and b) the chance you'll get bluff-raised off your hand. I think you're probably ahead here, but you're right that with these stack sizes, if you bet, you probably have to call a push. He doesn't have bottom pair + flush draw btw because the [4c] came on the river.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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Apr 26, 2007
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Underbet as a value bet could get villain to c/r as a bluff, which we will have serious trouble calling, as well as the fact that villain may have us beat, leads me to think checking is best here.
 
J

jeffred1111

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Apr 16, 2007
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792
Results: I checked he showed A5, took note of it and moved on. I still believe he wasn't calling another bet because with the pair of 4's on the board, he has to have A9+ to make a crying call and not split and I don't think villain has Aj+ in this spot more than 20-30% (would've reraised probably).
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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Of course he is calling if you bet like $1 on that river with $15 in the pot and he has any Ace, and probably a fair bit more. Seriously, people never lay down top pair for a tiny river bet - he's calling you down unless you put him all in or something, and even then he probably calls because he thinks you're bluffing.
 
Y

young hova

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May 14, 2007
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I like bet/fold, but in this spot, I might be intended to check it down because villain was tilting enough to be calling all streets with third pair/flush draw againt me + the stack sizes make it awakard for him to call and not push on the river. Plus, I don't know if we could get another street of value from worse A's here.

I think you can get another street of value from worse A, if you value bet your almost giving him no choice but to call -- its too much money out there not to call a value bet. Add in the fact that he's tilting and he wants to prove he can win a hand against you...at this level I am damn near certain he will instacall thinking he has the best hand; I don't think he has it in him to make this lay down. If he wasn't tilting chances are he may not call, but I think this is a situation where his mood is definitely going to get the best of him.

Unless you know he's the type to check-raise his stellar hands in a situation like that you miswell check, if your pretty positive that he wouldn't do that, or that he would bet his winning hands on the river first than you miswell bet something. In the latter case he could be worried you have it and he just wants to check call himself
 
DetroitJimmy

DetroitJimmy

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I wouldn't value bet this river.If you have the best hand then so be it.Much better to win a smaller pot than to lose a big one.
 
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