value bet this river or no?

[ChuckTs]

You don't have to worry about upsetting me!

I think I wrote that out of fear of getting re-flamed (ie Rob'ed ). I wrote that post twice, the first (deleted) time it was much ruder because your post reminded me of the recent flux of posters here at CC who insisted that using math in poker was absurd and that magical soul-reading was the only way to go. Of course I changed my post because yours was really not as much like theirs as I'd thought, aside from the part about stats etc being overly relied on...

We have different opinions re Pokertracker and probably always will have. I do wonder whether some players are using it as a crutch, making decisions based on the stats rather than on the cards / betting pattern, which is a mistake IMO? Optimally I think it should be used to maybe push you one way rather than another on a tricky decision as you said (still cheating though ).

While I agree some people depend on them too much and look at other aspects of a hand (betting patterns, tendencies etc), I still think they're essential unless you're playing like one or two tables and can get a 'real' read on how they're playing. Stats determine hand ranges, aggression levels and betting tendencies, all of which are essential (again, unless you can get a 'natural' read) in in analyzing a hand, or playing a hand properly for that matter. I think it's just the means by which you get those ranges/agg levels/patterns that seems to have you disagreeing.

Interesting though that one of the first questions in this (as in most threads) was "Stats?". No one so far has suggested that A 10 could or should be folded preflop in a full ring game. No one has suggested that the hand could be defined by a bet on the preflop, or certainly on the turn. 12 months ago, this hand history analysis would be completely different, and the game hasn't changed in that time.

I don't agree with folding pf at all. I think it goes raising >>>>>>>> calling>folding (both calling and folding are pretty bad options imo). By raising weget value vs worse hands, get the upper hand vs the better ones (ie fold equity) and of course define hand ranges better.

As for the turn I see no reason to bet it other than for information which I don't think is enough. Our goal should be to see a showdown at this point. As played on the river it really looks like our opponent is weak, so we try to squeeze a little value out of our hand.

 

[aliengenius]

Not with an Ace on the flop surely? If you are saying he was contemplating folding AQ, then how can you also consider betting here to also be a "value bet" to draw in JJ?

If you had stopped the hand history below instead of where you did, and asked the question "should I value raise here?" the answer would have been a resounding NO from everyone, but that is what you seem to be saying you were doing. I don't play enough ring games to expect you to respect my opinion, but Tenbob, Chuck and Combuboom have all offered good (and frankly bleedingly obvious) advice here, and you are still defending your play?

Sorry to be mean, but you are the most popular poster here, my most feared opponent in the MTTs, yet you just don't seem to be getting the ring games at all (and worse, asking good questions but seemingly ignoring the replies)?

You are right, of course, that I shouldn't have posted the result immediately. This is just what I am trying to get at: what range can we put him on here: we seem to have equity vs. the most reasonable ones as far as I can tell. Claiming that a hand like JJ wont call is simply not true-- I have played enough hands at this level to tell you that they will, and fairly often.

I agree also that I am still figuring out the ring games.

 

[blankoblanco]

Claiming that a hand like JJ wont call is simply not true-- I have played enough hands at this level to tell you that they will, and fairly often.

are you talking about the initial value bet or the shove?

 

[aliengenius]

I really can't explain why I suddenly thought that the second min check raise was weakness-- just a donk move by me.

I guess if we assign probabilities to his range, A8 would make the most sense.

 

[AnotherGamer]

I would check on river, so many hands that beats your hand.