value bet this river or no?

aliengenius

aliengenius

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fulltiltpoker Game #5890337086: Table Sierra Vista - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 9:45:21 ET - 2008/04/03
Seat 1: VolleyShoot ($10)
Seat 2: Moicanno ($10.40)
Seat 3: DopeyMcDope ($8.20)
Seat 4: watasac ($11.05)
Seat 5: celodrape ($8.85)
Seat 6: Bobbyjah ($8.35)
Seat 7: lol_me_is_good ($1.70)
Seat 8: aliengenius ($10.80)
Seat 9: dotnet58000 ($3.95)
Moicanno posts the small blind of $0.05
DopeyMcDope posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aliengenius [Tc As]
watasac calls $0.10
celodrape folds
Bobbyjah folds
lol_me_is_good folds
aliengenius calls $0.10
dotnet58000 folds
VolleyShoot folds
Moicanno calls $0.05
DopeyMcDope checks
*** FLOP *** [5h Ac 4d]
Moicanno checks
DopeyMcDope checks
watasac checks
aliengenius has 15 seconds left to act
aliengenius bets $0.30
Moicanno has 15 seconds left to act
Moicanno calls $0.30
DopeyMcDope folds
watasac has 15 seconds left to act
watasac raises to $0.60
aliengenius calls $0.30
Moicanno folds
*** TURN *** [5h Ac 4d] [5d]
watasac checks
aliengenius has 15 seconds left to act
aliengenius checks
*** RIVER *** [5h Ac 4d 5d] [8d]
watasac checks
aliengenius ???
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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If you checked the turn you may as well check here the river hasn't helped you and isn't really a scare card. I'd have bet the turn, and if that had been called probably checked behind on the river (with a bigger pot).

You gained no info on the turn, so in reality it's just a guess isn't it? I'd probably check here and let table see how weakly I played top pair to set up a mover later, but I wouldn't be in this situation.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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got PT stats on him so we know how wide he's limping?

i mean his flop line could easily just be a typical "see where i'm at" thing with any pocket pair over 5s, or maybe A-rag, or even A4 that got counterfeited on turn. once he checks turn and then river it looks to be one of those weaker things. i'd be inclined to value bet it smallish, obv fold to a raise and make a note
 
tenbob

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IF the pot was larger then id be inclined to check behind here.

His line is extremly weak though and I feel that we can throw out a value bet here, and fold to any substantial re-raise, but looking at the pattern here if he min-raises us we have to call it. I bet ~$1.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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His stats are sLP: 22.5/3.75/0.58 over 80 hands.

anyway, his line really confused me.

IF the pot was larger then id be inclined to check behind here.

His line is extremly weak though and I feel that we can throw out a value bet here, and fold to any substantial re-raise, but looking at the pattern here if he min-raises us we have to call it. I bet ~$1.

^^this was kind of my thinking. Except for the going bizzerko part and re-raising him:

aliengenius bets $1.15
watasac raises to $2.30
aliengenius raises to $10.10, and is all in
watasac has 15 seconds left to act
watasac calls $7.80
*** SHOW DOWN ***
aliengenius shows [Tc As] two pair, Aces and Fives
watasac shows [Ad Qc] two pair, Aces and Fives
watasac wins the pot ($20.10) with two pair, Aces and Fives
aliengenius adds $10
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $22.10 | Rake $2

I play so bad sometimes. I just didn't understand the min check raises when he seemed so weak otherwise.
 
Last edited:
robwhufc

robwhufc

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anyway, his line really confused me.

Whole hand was shambolic, he really deserved to have you flip over a 5, Ace 8 or 2 diamonds.

So much hand analysis going on at the moment, so many people trying to tweak the game, pick up all the little nuances, have study groups, analyse stats, read books and magazines watch videos etc etc, that sometimes we just lose track of the basic fundamentals of poker. Here AQ has stacked A 10. A 10 has limped in, been raised on the flop AND the river, and ended up costing $10.80. Go back to when we first started poker, and this would be a rookie mistake - overvaluing weak aces is Chapter 1 of Poker for Dummies.

AG, broken record I know, but try playing with the Pokertracker off for a bit, please. Look at the hands as you did a year ago, as black and white. Some of these hands will seem so obvious if you just look at the cards.
 
tenbob

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OH no, that river is a train-wreak......... I just don't get the re-raise here, just call it, what other hand is possibly calling you ? Even if he makes a standard raise here I'm folding, and I check behind lots and lots. Only for his min-raise earlier in the hand, I know for I can showdown cheaply even if i bet.

Rob, did you ever use Pokertracker ?
 
benevg

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i'd think at 10NL you people are putting too much thinking into your opponents' heads. his raise on the flop i take to mean an ace, perhaps with a decent kicker. why he checked the turn i have no idea, but i am fairly certain that i am not 3-betting on the river.

min-raises at this level are (more often than not) raises that just didn't get pumped up sufficiently because the person chose the easier line of clicking the "raise" button.

maybe what rob said - play with Poker Tracker off. or maybe with PT on so it keeps collecting data, but turn the HUD off.
 
blankoblanco

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I just don't get the re-raise here, just call it, what other hand is possibly calling you ?

the river shove had to have been a bluff to try to push off a bigger A..

right?

it's still quite bad since it's only possibly effective against 3 hands in his whole range, and really more like 1 or 2 because AK he likely raises, and AQ maybe (i'm taking his stats into account). and you don't even know he'll fold a bigger A (see results)

yeah this is like the weirdest hand i've seen in a long time. fancy play syndrome regardless. keep it simple
 
ChuckTs

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So much hand analysis going on at the moment, so many people trying to tweak the game, pick up all the little nuances, have study groups, analyse stats, read books and magazines watch videos etc etc, that sometimes we just lose track of the basic fundamentals of poker. Here AQ has stacked A 10. A 10 has limped in, been raised on the flop AND the river, and ended up costing $10.80. Go back to when we first started poker, and this would be a rookie mistake - overvaluing weak aces is Chapter 1 of Poker for Dummies.

Going along this road, we could ignore stats and analysis and say "you lost with 97s vs AA" when you flopped a flush in a limped pot and got outdrawn, or "you lost your whole stack with AT vs AK" when in fact you were shortstacked in a tournament and had to push. Poker adages are often very misleading and often wrong. What's your take on betting the river without going into 'stats analysis', Rob?

I'm not trying to rag on you - I completely agree that the fundamentals are often all that's needed - but in close spots like these we need to make run an analysis to see how often we should be betting. Yes AG played it horridly on the river (after the check-raise), but we need to look at the stats to know how often we're ahead here. We could give a general answer, but to really know where we're at we need stats. AG played it fine up until that point. He played it well actually, and I do like the river bet against this type of guy. It's a little thin, but we're seeing weaker aces, tester bets with TT and draws, and of course bigger aces and made hands like sets/23/45 etc.

Usually those hands aren't checking on the river out of fear of you checking behind (you did show a lot of weakness on the turn), but to be safe we HAVE to fold to a river checkraise. Check-raises on the river are RARELY anything but monsters (at least in your opponent's eyes). Against a minraise it's a little different but I doubt we're ahead very often even then...
 
tenbob

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Check-raises on the river are RARELY anything but monsters (at least in your opponent's eyes). Against a minraise it's a little different but I doubt we're ahead very often even then...

Oh I agree totally. The thing is we don't need to be ahead that often against a river min-raise here to make calling profitable.
 
ChuckTs

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True enough. We'd be getting 4.65:1 which means we have to be good ~%18 or slightly less than 1/5 of the time here. What hands check-minraise that river that we have beat though? Smaller aces I guess?
 
tenbob

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Yea smaller aces, occasionally hands like JJ that just figured us for air after our turn check as well can be thrown into the mix. Gotta feel that once we bet the river we call any min-raise. Looking at it again, checking behind is likely a better option, because it just gets us to showdown the cheapest way.
 
blankoblanco

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checking behind always gets us to showdown the cheapest, that doesn't mean always check behind. value is value
 
zachvac

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well before seeing the results I was thinking check behind on the river. There are a ton of hands that have you beat and there are a ton of scare cards for the ones that don't. Even though it happened, at this point I'm not even worried about a re-raise, I just think this is a stronger scared A too much. Now apparently this guy is an idiot and had a stronger A but wasn't phased in the slightest by this board, raised the river and called a shove. He played it pretty bad, but then again stacking with AT here isn't exactly playing it well.

But whether you check behind or bet for value, you have to just flat call the river raise, no reason to stack here because as Chuck mentioned, most bigger aces are not folding at 10nl and most weaker aces aren't calling. You may get a dumb weak A once in a while or an AJ that lays it down, but for the most part that raise makes no sense. Sets/trips/flushes and maybe 2-pair hands are calling instantly here.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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Yea smaller aces, occasionally hands like JJ that just figured us for air after our turn check as well can be thrown into the mix. Gotta feel that once we bet the river we call any min-raise. Looking at it again, checking behind is likely a better option, because it just gets us to showdown the cheapest way.

I see this line taken a lot more than occasionally. They can't fold the 'pretty pair' and randomly min raise like they forgot what the board/action was. As bad as the shove is, there ARE quite a few hands that I beat that are calling here, including every weaker ace. Also, he did tank before calling, so apparently I'm getting stronger hands than mine to fold, at least on occasion, as well.
 
ChuckTs

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I'm with combu here, if there's value to be made then a bet needs to be put out. I think it's a bet; the fact that he's passive and won't ch-r bluff the river like ever makes bet-folding trivially easy. A check-minraise does give us good odds but tbh I still don't think there are enough hands we beat in his range to make calling it good...not entirely sure about that still though.

Oh, and I probably raise this pf. Relatively few people yet to act, we have position on a weak limper, a hand to fall back on...we push out better hands and get value from worse ones enough of the time postflop to make it profitable.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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Ran the numbers against KK-99, and all non-2 pair aces: pokerstove gives me 66.495%.

Is that range too unreasonable?

Against KK-66, all aces, plus 76o/s I am still 56.122%.
 
robwhufc

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Rob, did you ever use Pokertracker ?

I had the free trial and bought it on my old PC, but haven't bothered putting it on my new one. As you can probably guess, i'm not a fan - I haven't got the time or inclination to bother with the input and analysis (do enough of that at work), and, bit pompous maybe, I think using it is cheating (although I understand if it is probably essential if you are playing for a living, as everyone else is cheating too).

I'm not trying to rag on you - I completely agree that the fundamentals are often all that's needed - but in close spots like these we need to make run an analysis to see how often we should be betting...

You don't have to worry about upsetting me!:eek: We have different opinions re Pokertracker and probably always will have. I do wonder whether some players are using it as a crutch, making decisions based on the stats rather than on the cards / betting pattern, which is a mistake IMO? Optimally I think it should be used to maybe push you one way rather than another on a tricky decision as you said (still cheating though ;)).

Interesting though that one of the first questions in this (as in most threads) was "Stats?". No one so far has suggested that A 10 could or should be folded preflop in a full ring game. No one has suggested that the hand could be defined by a bet on the preflop, or certainly on the turn. 12 months ago, this hand history analysis would be completely different, and the game hasn't changed in that time.
 
F

feitr

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raise pf coz it will make the hand alot easier to play.

Personally i would have bet the turn, then checked behind on the river had he called. I don't think betting was the wrong move, although moving all in was just terrible because what do you really think he is c/r you with on the river?

It was a totally bizzare bizzare hand. The guy limps with AQ, min raises the flop, then checks checks, which does not look like a strong ace at all. It was very weird play by him, and i would have been inclined to put him on A-rag or 6s or something (until the river), in which case a small value bet on the river was the right move. Just bite the bullet and pay him off on the river instead of trying to bluff him out (did you really think he would fold after c/ring you?)
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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They can't fold the 'pretty pair' and randomly min raise like they forgot what the board/action was.

Also, he did tank before calling, so apparently I'm getting stronger hands than mine to fold, at least on occasion, as well.
Would it be cruel to point out that that is exactly what you have done? ;)

And bit spurious to try and pick up a timing tell AFTER you have already put him all in. Opponent played his hand terribly I think that is agreed, I wouldn't read anything into the fact that you almost got this donk to fold.


(P.S I was already typing that no one had talked about not raising pre-flop when Chuck posted - i'm a slow typer!).
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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raise pf coz it will make the hand alot easier to play.

maybe...

Personally i would have bet the turn, then checked behind on the river had he called.

I am not betting the turn after he min raises me on the flop

I don't think betting was the wrong move, although moving all in was just terrible because what do you really think he is c/r you with on the river?

It was a totally bizzare bizzare hand.

^^this

The guy limps with AQ, min raises the flop, then checks checks, which does not look like a strong ace at all. It was very weird play by him, and i would have been inclined to put him on A-rag or 6s or something (until the river), in which case a small value bet on the river was the right move.

exactly, or JJ or QQ or some such pretty pair.

Just bite the bullet and pay him off on the river instead of trying to bluff him out (did you really think he would fold after c/ring you?)

Honestly, I wasn't bluffing, I though he would call me w a worse hand. I was really surprised to see AQ.

^above.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

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Would it be cruel to point out that that is exactly what you have done? ;)

And bit spurious to try and pick up a timing tell AFTER you have already put him all in. Opponent played his hand terribly I think that is agreed, I wouldn't read anything into the fact that you almost got this donk to fold.


(P.S I was already typing that no one had talked about not raising pre-flop when Chuck posted - i'm a slow typer!).

? This isn't what I did at all. I put him on a weaker hand than he had, mostly because of his weird line. Pairs like JJ are not putting their opponent on a hand at all, they are simply looking at JJ and thinking "I haz pockets!"

And it's not a "tell" on the river, simply pointing out that when you bet you want one of two things to occur: opponent calls w a worse hand, OR opponent folds a better hand. My intention was the first, I'll be honest, but that doesn't mean I had zero fold equity in the event of a better hand either. Clearly he thought about folding.
 
F

feitr

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Ok it is up to you but i can't see the logic of not betting the turn, then pushing all in after a raise on the river....IMO you have alot more pot control (and information about his hand) by betting the turn and checking the river. And i can't see him limping with TT+ (w/ pfr of 5%) so i wouldn't be putting him on a hand like that.

Do you not realise how ridiculous it is to say that you don't want to bet the turn because of the flop min raise, then with no further information until the river raise, which indicates you are probably beat, you decide to push all in :S
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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? This isn't what I did at all. I put him on a weaker hand than he had, mostly because of his weird line. Pairs like JJ are not putting their opponent on a hand at all, they are simply looking at JJ and thinking "I haz pockets!"

And it's not a "tell" on the river, simply pointing out that when you bet you want one of two things to occur: opponent calls w a worse hand, OR opponent folds a better hand.

Not with an Ace on the flop surely? If you are saying he was contemplating folding AQ, then how can you also consider betting here to also be a "value bet" to draw in JJ?

If you had stopped the hand history below instead of where you did, and asked the question "should I value raise here?" the answer would have been a resounding NO from everyone, but that is what you seem to be saying you were doing.:confused: I don't play enough ring games to expect you to respect my opinion, but Tenbob, Chuck and Combuboom have all offered good (and frankly bleedingly obvious) advice here, and you are still defending your play?

Sorry to be mean, but you are the most popular poster here, my most feared opponent in the MTTs, yet you just don't seem to be getting the ring games at all (and worse, asking good questions but seemingly ignoring the replies)?

FullTiltPoker Game #5890337086: Table Sierra Vista - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 9:45:21 ET - 2008/04/03
Seat 1: VolleyShoot ($10)
Seat 2: Moicanno ($10.40)
Seat 3: DopeyMcDope ($8.20)
Seat 4: watasac ($11.05)
Seat 5: celodrape ($8.85)
Seat 6: Bobbyjah ($8.35)
Seat 7: lol_me_is_good ($1.70)
Seat 8: aliengenius ($10.80)
Seat 9: dotnet58000 ($3.95)
Moicanno posts the small blind of $0.05
DopeyMcDope posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aliengenius [Tc As]
watasac calls $0.10
celodrape folds
Bobbyjah folds
lol_me_is_good folds
aliengenius calls $0.10
dotnet58000 folds
VolleyShoot folds
Moicanno calls $0.05
DopeyMcDope checks
*** FLOP *** [5h Ac 4d]
Moicanno checks
DopeyMcDope checks
watasac checks
aliengenius has 15 seconds left to act
aliengenius bets $0.30
Moicanno has 15 seconds left to act
Moicanno calls $0.30
DopeyMcDope folds
watasac has 15 seconds left to act
watasac raises to $0.60
aliengenius calls $0.30
Moicanno folds
*** TURN *** [5h Ac 4d] 5♦
watasac checks
aliengenius has 15 seconds left to act
aliengenius checks
*** RIVER *** [5h Ac 4d 5d] 8♦
watasac checks
aliengenius bets $1.15
watasac raises to $2.30
aliengenius ??????
 
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