Trips on 3-club board meet resistance [6max 50nl]

[zachvac]

Stacks:
* SB with $50.10
* BB with $65.65
* UTG with $226.40
* MP with $51.30
* BTN with $46.85

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
Dealt to BTN:J♦ K♣
* * Sklansky group 5
Preflop:
* * 2 players fold.
Hero raises $1 to $1.50
* * SB calls [$1.25]
* * BB calls [$1]
* * Total folds this street: 2
* * Potsize: $4.5
Flop: Q♣ J♣ 9♣
* * SB: checks
* * BB: checks Hero bets [$1.50]
* * 1 players fold.
* * BB calls [$1.50]
* * Total folds this street: 1
* * Potsize: $7.5
Turn: J♥
* * BB: checks Hero bets [$4.50]
* * BB raises $11.50 to $16 Hero ???

 

[zachvac]

So do you shove here? Flat call? If you do just call what do you do if villain checks river? Shoves river? Assume no club or board pair because if that happens it's an obvious shove.

 

[feitr]

Sorry reposted it.

He could very well have the other J. Pretty sick board but with trips + 2nd nut flush draw + gutshot straight i'm not exactly sure how you could lay this down. I would say 99% rule out him having a straight since he isn't flat calling flop then check raising river with a straight on a 3 club board. This would also be a very strange line for a flopped flush, unless he flopped the nut flush. Seems more likely to me that he has the other J. I'd be very tempted to shove here. AcJ would be absolutely sick.

Only problem with shoving is you really don't have fold equity. I can't see any way in hell villain would fold this...but if you don't shove and flat call and the river comes a blank then you are in a horrible situation if (when) he shoves.

 

[ChuckTs]

Really don't like how you played this.

Where do you stand if you bet flop and he check-calls (see why you're so lost on the turn)? If he check-raises?
What's with the small bets again?

 

[zachvac]

ok so here's what happened:

hero calls turn. River = 2s, villain shoves, hero ???

 

[ChuckTs]

Sorry reposted it.

He could very well have the other J. Pretty sick board but with trips + 2nd nut flush draw + gutshot straight i'm not exactly sure how you could lay this down. I would say 99% rule out him having a straight since he isn't flat calling flop then check raising river with a straight on a 3 club board. This would also be a very strange line for a flopped flush, unless he flopped the nut flush. Seems more likely to me that he has the other J. I'd be very tempted to shove here. AcJ would be absolutely sick.

So your range on him is Jx, and a flush?
Why would it be a strange line for a flush to make this play?

Only problem with shoving is you really don't have fold equity. I can't see any way in hell villain would fold this...

So we're turning our hand into a bluff? We're assuming we're beat? Why do we need fold equity?

As played, which again I don't like, I can't see him doing this with anything we have beat except JT or an outright bluff which I think is pretty unlikely. It seems like we have outs to improve but if you look at his range, a lot of our outs are dirty.

 

[zachvac]

ok well basically here's what happened (and part of the reason the bets were so small Chuck ). I was actually the BB in this hand and had A7c. He ended up calling my river shove with the KJ and I won a nice pot, I was just trying to see if people thought they could get away from it were they in that situation and what kind of range they'd put me on in that scenario (the flop call, turn check-raise).

 

[ChuckTs]

trickster!

 

[feitr]

Why would it be a strange line for a flush to make this play?

No i said (as quoted below) that it would be a strange line for any flush but the nut flush to take (and it would make perfect sense for the nut flush).

This would also be a very strange line for a flopped flush, unless he flopped the nut flush.

If villain (or hero now) flopped a smaller flush, it would make no sense to flat call the flop...you would come way over the top. The nut flush, however, is the only hand that was really threatening, and it was the only flush that would take that line, simply because you can afford to extract value when you flop the nuts obviously.

Incredibly hard lay down imo, because as i said the only flush he should probably be scared of is the nut flush, which isn't that likely. But since you have it he loses almost all his outs...vs a smaller flopped flush he would have like 39% equity, which is auto shove given pot odds. vs Jx it would be kinda hard to tell (tho having all 4 Js out there is unlikely) since JT is about the only JT he beats.

And chuck, i don't think fold equity means your hand is a bluff. Somebody could easily be making that play with the nut flush draw and top pair or something, which you have beat, but would rather he fold and not get a chance to draw out on you. I was just making the point that if he shoved, he was getting called so he would have to be ahead.

 

[ChuckTs]

If villain (or hero now) flopped a smaller flush, it would make no sense to flat call the flop...you would come way over the top. The nut flush, however, is the only hand that was really threatening, and it was the only flush that would take that line, simply because you can afford to extract value when you flop the nuts obviously.

I know what you were alluding to, but I don't think it's true. Plenty of people will slowplay small flushes.

Somebody could easily be making that play with the nut flush draw and top pair or something, which you have beat, but would rather he fold.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.545% 79.55% 00.00% 35 0.00 { KcJd }
Hand 1: 20.455% 20.45% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcQs }

No, you wouldn't.

Fold equity refers to the equity you gain by folding out hands that would otherwise have some kind of equity in the pot - namely better hands. You never want fold equity when your hand is best. You want calls.

 

[feitr]

Yea actually no idea what i was talking about with the fold equity. All i meant to say was that if he shoved he was getting called no ifs or buts about it. So fold equity was the wrong term...but point kinda remains the same. By shoving, you really need to be beating his range.

But i still don't think he should have been afraid of a smaller flush. It is an odd line to take for a small flush, and vs a small flush he is still 2:3 to win the pot after the turn.

A flopped nut flush or a hand like AcJ was the real danger.