T8h in the SB; analysis

[ChuckTs]

I want to do this one step by step without revealing what I did next to see what you guys think is the best play.
I've been playing pretty TAG poker; doubled up early with QQ vs A3, and have limped in a couple multiway pots. OPs are typical monkeys found at this level. (jimmyj44 is 40/0, CaptainAceJr is 50/20, and ghirayr is 45/10, and they're all pretty aggressive. I'm 15/5 and very aggressive)


pokerstars Game #5923763432: Tournament #29996345, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/08/15 - 01:53:01 (ET)
Table '29996345 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: CaptainAceJr (1775 in chips)
Seat 2: Aw1137 (1235 in chips)
Seat 3: ChuckTs (3060 in chips)
Seat 5: ghirayr (2130 in chips)
Seat 6: jimmyj44 (1590 in chips)
Seat 7: THAITOO (3440 in chips)
Seat 9: cuchulainpkr (270 in chips)
ChuckTs: posts small blind 15
ghirayr: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Th 8h]
jimmyj44: calls 30
THAITOO: folds
cuchulainpkr: folds
CaptainAceJr: calls 30
Aw1137: folds
ChuckTs: calls 15 - i have plenty of chips, and am gettin 7:1 for my call...easy limp.
ghirayr: checks
*** FLOP *** [7d 9d 2c]
ChuckTs:......

Do you lead out? If so, how much? Check-call maybe?

 

[t1riel]

I would bet here. I think your opponent would chase the flush draw becuae I don't think he/she caught a pair. Your opponent could be on a straight draw as well. Bet a decent amount to get him/her to fold. If he/she calls, you know your opponent caught something. Like you said, you have plenty of chips.

 

[Lo-Dog]

If they are aggressive then one of them is likely to take a stab at it if you don't. Unless one has hit two pair I don't see you getting re-raised so I would throw out a 60-90 bet and see if I can take it down right there.

Of course you said you were laying this out step by step so I guess it continues past the flop.

 

[gord962]

I would lead out with 1/2 the pot to see what type of reaction I get from the others. You don't want anyone seeing the turn here for free.

 

[Effexor]

With 4 people in the hand still, I doubt that you can win the pot right there unless you made a really big bet, so I'd lead out with a bet of 60 to (1) try and build the pot in case you hit the straight and (2) make it appear that you have something but not to invest so much that a big reraise would cost you too much if you had to fold. It may also serve to keep the betting down a bit so you can get the next card cheaply.

 

[Lo-Dog]

With 4 people in the hand still, I doubt that you can win the pot right there unless you made a really big bet, so I'd lead out with a bet of 60 to (1) try and build the pot in case you hit the straight and (2) make it appear that you have something but not to invest so much that a big reraise would cost you too much if you had to fold. It may also serve to keep the betting down a bit so you can get the next card cheaply.

Good point Effexor. By leading you out you may be able to control the size of the pot. If you check one of of them is likely to overbet the pot to try and take it down.

 

[ChuckTs]

*** FLOP *** [7d 9d 2c]
ChuckTs: checks
ghirayr: checks
jimmyj44: bets 90
CaptainAceJr: calls 90
ChuckTs:.....

Actually, I checked. People at the $5 level will call just about anything, and I didn't want to be out of position with just a draw. Maybe a bet could have taken the pot down, but what do you do if I lead out for say 90 or 100, and both these guys call? Do you lead the turn again?

So now I'm getting (90+90+120):90 = 300:90 = 3.33:1 odds on my straight draw. Do you call?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Call. Not so much because of pot odds, but you have a healthy stack and your implied odds should you hit one of your six 'clean' outs seem to be pretty good considering the action.

(Flop check is fine. I bet in position often here, either to take it down after both opponents have shown no strength, or failing that to hopefully get to see a free river card if I miss. Obviously neither of these applies OOP, so check)

 

[Dingodaddy23]

you've played it perfectly up to this point, i say call because ppl in 5 dollar tourney's pay off str8's

 

[medeiros13]

I agree with the check and Dorkus' advice to call. It seems like you're getting just about even money between your pot odds and total outs. (including the 2 diamonds)

Did you find it interesting that JimmyJ lead out with a value/continuation bet after two checks. I'm thinking he's trying to limit the players seeing the turn after two checks in front of him. Your thoughts?

 

[ChuckTs]

Well, I called. I was getting decent odds, and anyone with a 9 or possibly a 7 will give me good implied odds if I hit.

*** FLOP *** [7d 9d 2c]
ChuckTs: checks
ghirayr: checks
jimmyj44: bets 90
CaptainAceJr: calls 90
ChuckTs: calls 90
ghirayr: folds
*** TURN *** [7d 9d 2c] 2♠
ChuckTs:....

Well, we're still drawing; do you just check-call given good odds again here? Maybe try to control your odds and lead out to see a cheap river? Maybe try and buy the pot?

 

[medeiros13]

The way I see it, there are two possibilities here. The first is the way I would play it, the second is what I think you did!!

My opinion, I would check here. The board pairing has to slow down our villans whether they are on a flush draw or have a 2 pair hand. Let the other players dictate pot odds to you and see if they make sense. 6 clean outs just isn't that strong. You said you have plenty of chips so find a better opportunity if the pot odds given aren't even or favorable.

The second play is a semi bluff. For me, that's a half pot bet. If our villans are on a flush draw, a half pot bet doesn't give them proper odds to chase. Also, your sequence of plays makes sense for you to represent trip 2's. You checked the flop and only called after two callers. If I'm in the villans shoes, I would assume you hit bottom pair. That would be a reason for the check to start, then the call, followed by a decent sized bet. I think that may get rid of one player..then if a non diamond hits the river, you fire at it again and probably win the pot.

 

[ChuckTs]

Actually...i checked. Too weak

*** TURN *** [7d 9d 2c] 2♠
ChuckTs: checks
jimmyj44: bets 90
CaptainAceJr: folds
ChuckTs: calls 90
*** RIVER *** [7d 9d 2c 2s] J♣
ChuckTs:.......

I don't think we need to analyze my call; getting 5.33:1 odds, and although my 6 pure outs don't get the proper pot odds to call, his bet was very weak, and I'm now thinking that my 10 may even be an out. On top of that, now with the second player gone, I think I can make a decent bluff should a third diamond hit (assuming of course that jimmyj isn't on a flush draw - and betting it the whole way).

Anyways; now we've hit the straight, and we have the nuts. Pot's at 570; how much do we bet? Maybe check raise?

 

[F Paulsson]

If you're betting, you're representing roughly jacks up. So whatever hand he has, will have to beat that in order to call, or at least be good enough to make a curiousity call.

How much will a hand better than jacks up call? A large portion of his hands are made up by busted flush draws and middle pairs here. Some of the time he has trips (and will probably raise), so what you're aiming for is extracting value out of hands like A7 or Q9. If you think he's more likely to be holding a busted draw than any of the mediocre hands, a check may induce a bluff (whereas a bet will only lead to a fold).

I'd aim for Q9 and figure out how much such a hand would call. I'd probably bet ~400.

 

[blankoblanco]

I'm feeling like jimmy missed his flush draw. It's possible he has a pair of 9s, but if he did I think he would have been more likely to bet more on the turn, instead of making the same smallish bet which seems to me like an attempt to control the betting as well as giving himself an inexpensive opportunity to take the pot down right there.

I don't know how he plays well enough to be sure on that venture, but I think I'd check it to him and hope he either bluffs at it on his missed flush draw or bets for some other monkey reason (overconfidence in his 9s, or he could have even "luckily" hit the J on the river).

 

[medeiros13]

The betting pattern that our villan has created is 90 chips. That's what I'd fire out and hope that he tries to steal it by raising.

I really like combuboom's thought process but if he missed his flush, it's way to easy for him to check the hand down. IMO, you want to add at least a little bit to our pot

 

[ChuckTs]

I hate checking the nuts on the river...there's just too much of a chance that villain will check behind me, and I lose an valuable bet that 1) Makes up for bad odds earlier and 2) Just plain gives me a good payoff for the nuts.

I bet without thinking too much here, and should have taken more time to analyze. OP's been playing fairly weak; I'm thinking he has A7 (top pair would be played much more strong at this level), or a busted flush draw. He could also have hit the jack with something like JTd. Either way, I can't bet much and get a call, so i think the best amount here would be 100 or 200. A check-raise is also an option, but I prefer leading out. He's probably becoming pretty suspicious of my check-calling down to the river, and he'll probably check behind me even with a pair of 9s, or even jacks considering the strange texture of the flop and my strange check-calling.

*** RIVER *** [7d 9d 2c 2s] [Jc]
ChuckTs: bets 299
jimmyj44: folds
ChuckTs collected 570 from pot
ChuckTs: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 570 | Rake 0
Board [7d 9d 2c 2s Jc]
Seat 1: CaptainAceJr folded on the Turn
Seat 2: Aw1137 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: ChuckTs (small blind) collected (570)
Seat 5: ghirayr (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: jimmyj44 folded on the River
Seat 7: THAITOO folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: cuchulainpkr folded before Flop (didn't bet)


Like I said, I didn't think long enough about what amount he'd call. The only thing going through my mind was 'make it look like you're buying the pot', in hopes of getting a call. I think he had either a busted flush draw, or a pair of 7s.

I'm usually the aggressor in a hand, and don't like drawing much. I know it's a very normal part of poker to draw, but I hate doing it How do you guys think I played the hand? I just hate playing weak, and check-call check-call is something I hate doing...

 

[mrsnake3695]

"The second play is a semi bluff. For me, that's a half pot bet. If our villans are on a flush draw, a half pot bet doesn't give them proper odds to chase. Also, your sequence of plays makes sense for you to represent trip 2's. You checked the flop and only called after two callers. If I'm in the villans shoes, I would assume you hit bottom pair. That would be a reason for the check to start, then the call, followed by a decent sized bet. I think that may get rid of one player..then if a non diamond hits the river, you fire at it again and probably win the pot."



Umm, this may be way too much anaylisis for a $5 game. the vast majority of players at this level are not nearly this sophisticated.

 

[blankoblanco]

I can see why many people would disagree with me about checking that hand... checking a big hand to the other player on the river isn't something I do often, but when I feel I have a read that the player missed their draw I do sometimes like to put my read to the test and see if they in fact bluff at it. It has proven to be quite effective at the $20+$2 SnGs on party poker. I guess a small added incentive is the fact that, if they do check behind you, you at least get to see their hand and know how they played it.

 

[ChuckTs]

...but when I feel I have a read that the player missed their draw I do sometimes like to put my read to the test and see if they in fact bluff at it.

I completely agree that if you have a read that OP is super-aggressive, then it's a fine play to check, hoping to raise, on the river with a strong hand. The thing is that your read has to be both right that he has a busted draw, and that he is that aggressive that he'll bet if you check.

I guess a small added incentive is the fact that, if they do check behind you, you at least get to see their hand and know how they played it.

Good point, but I think the value of the chips you'd lose from not leading out would be greater than the value of the info you collect. This is a SnG we're talking about, and generally, notes aren't nearly as important as they are in ring games.

Check-raising (or attempting to) is a move i used to try alot, and maybe it's just me, but I've found that it needs pretty specific conditions in order for it to work really well. Obviously your opponent has to be either super-aggressive, is known to try and steal/bluff etc. A great move when it works (especially when you give him good odds to call on your raise so you don't fully shut him out), but my read on the guy in this hand was that his hand was pretty weak, and I don't think he'd put out a 3rd bet had I checked, so I lead out.