Set vs a straight, can I get away from this?

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Bentheman87

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Sep 6, 2007
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Sorry lost the hand history but I remember the hand pretty well. It was a $.50/$1 full ring game and I just joined a few hands ago. I raised once from MP with a decent hand but got reraised by villian and folded. I'm in second position with 10 10 and raise to $3. Villian, in 4th position, just calls and the big blind calls.

Flop came King 10 6 with two spades and the pot was $9.5. This wasn't a hand to slowplay but I didn't want to chase off a hand like KJ or Ace 10. So I bet $6.5 after BB checked and villian called. Turn was the queen (non spade). Right now all that beats me is AJ, J 9, KK, and QQ. We can probably eliminate KK from that list since he woudl have 3bet pf, J9 since that would fold pf and would fold on the flop, Ace J since that would fold on the flop, QQ might call on that flop. So I make a big bet, pot was $22.5, I bet $15, villian min raises to $30. Is this a fold? A shove? Or a call?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Shove all day when the only real hand that beats you is a made gutshot, and STOP POSTING THE RESULTS, especially in the thread title.
 
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Bentheman87

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Wow I'm stupid didn't mean to post the result lol. He did have AJ, and I just called his flop bet, river was a complete blank so I shoved for my last $18 and he called. I couldn't put him on that hand, I was thinking, "he could have called pf with AJ but he wouldn't call a $6.5 on the flop with just a gutshot straight draw and one overcard, would he?". I looked at his stats after for sngs and mtts, don't know about ring games, and to my suprise he was a HUGE winner, up thousands of thousands of dollars playing small stakes. But I don't see how it's correct to call with just a gutshot straight draw.

So here's a question, was he correct to call my flop bet with only 4 outs, he probably thought he had about 6 total outs? I had about $50 before the hand started and he had a little more. When I made my flop best I had $40.5 left so he was getting only 6:1 implied odds if he figured me for a monster like KK or AA.
 
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danman7373

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Shoving is definitely the right play. Obviously just because he didn't have the right odds to draw to a gutshot doesn't mean that's not what he did, but your flop bet does lower the probability that that's what he's holding. He could quite easily have two pair by the river, or may even be aggressively pushing QJ now that he has a pair to go with his straight draw. Finally, on the off chance that he did turn the nut straight, you still have a chance to redraw on him on the river. I believe you'll make more money than you lose pushing in the spot over folding.
 
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switch0723

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He could have legitimately called the flop with A,J

He may have floated the flop bet, thinking his ace was good, or putting you on a ten, giving him 10 outs, or by thinking he can bet you off the hand on the turn. There is no way you can just count out a,j because he 'wouldn't have called on a gutshot'.

Its still a definate shove however, but just don't assume people can't have certain hands in the future
 
zebranky

zebranky

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you're stuck for this

I think you played this fine - the one exception is you may want to shove on his re-raise, but the result would have been the same.

I agree that AJ can't de dismissed completely just because he called on the flop bet, but it takes a very loose player to make the call the way your opponent did. Given how new you were on the table, I don't think you could have put him on this hand with the little information on him you had. I certainly wouldn't have.

Sometimes you just go broke because other people get lucky at the wrong times. You're in the same boat as the set-over-set on a no-draw board - you're probably going broke because while there are hands that can beat you, there's almost no way to figure out when the other guy has them.
 
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

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I pretty much agree with everybody. Despite the result, in similar situations shoving is going to make you a profit quite a bit more often than not.
 
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