Royal Draw?

[DP_Machine]

So I just came back from a B&M Casino, playing 1/2 NL with a max buy-in of $200. Just to introduce information on the players of this hand:

Player A - tight-agressive player playing about $120. He's been beaten-down several times in the past couple of hours. Was up to about $900 now down to $120ish.

Player B - same kind of player who's been picking up a couple of decent pots over the course of the session and he's playing about $250 but also down.

Me - I'm doing roughly the same as "B" with a little bit more in my stack around $275.

Player A is in small blind
Player B is in middle position
I'm on the button - dealt Qs, 8d

It's been generally a table with a lot of calls and only a couple of pre-flop raises. 3 other players call including Players A & B. No pre-flop raises.

$12 pot
Flop: 10s, Js, Ks - giving me a royal/str flush draw.

Player A - bets out $10
Player B - raises to $30
(obviously the other 3 players who limped folded by the time it came to me)

what would you do in this situation?

There's a second part of this hand I'd like to ask people but I'm curious about discussion about the play at this point...
Thanks for advance for being in this conversation.

 

[pigpen02]

I would say at least a call is mandatory here with two outs to unbeatable hands and 13 to very good hands. I couldn't pass up the chance at a royal, either. If you fold and the turn is A♠, you would kick yourself for months to come.

 

[Seneku]

Of course you do have a nice hand, but just about everything works against you.

1. It's a limped pot, so you can assume that one of the players already have a flush(also considering the action)
2. You're not holding the nut flushdraw
3. Your straightdraw is pretty much worthless with 3 spades on the board. You might end up hitting your draw and still be paying off a better hand.
4. You're not closing the bidding. So if player A reraised to 120 or so, you'll have hard time calling another 90 bucks on a non-nuts draw.

Of course it's tempting to call with such a big draw, but considering the action I would suggest mucking it. (Please correct me if I'm wrong)

 

[Bombjack]

Well you do have a couple of outs to the nuts ([as] and [9s]), but you're not really beating much here, and good chance someone has either a made flush (you have 7 or 1 out), 15 outs vs 2 pair / set, or 9 outs versus AQ. Trouble is, you're not going to get paid off if you hit, and you could be giving good reverse implied odds if someone has [as]. You don't have much fold equity by re-raising, because someone who raises generally isn't going anywhere. You also have no made hand, so if there's a naked [as] out there, you don't even win if you miss. You should probably just fold it.

 

[TheJace]

I agree with the others. I'd be thinking I'm drawing to 2 outs with horrible pot odds and one of them could already have the As or the small blind could even have the 9s. I'd just fold it.

 

[DP_Machine]

Royal Draw...Pt. 2

Well might as well post up Part 2 of this situation now:

So, I went off made the $30 call...I can't remember what went through my head when I made the call, but I did anyways. I was already thinking to myself after putting in the chips: "Why the hell am I chasing this thing." Then the sinking feeling even went more down, when player A, on my left, pushes all his chips in for a total of roughly $120.

Player B goes into the tank now, thinking about his hand back and forth. I'm doing my best not to give any inclination as to what I'm going to do. So, he's paying more attention to Player A. I'd say it's about a minute before he makes the call.

Then it's my turn to go into the tank. As soon as it was my turn to act I can remember Harrington in his series of books saying - even though you made a mistake, that shouldn't factor into your situation now.

So here's part 2: Now what would you do? I'll post the result of the hand after people hopefully give insight as to what they would do and why.

Thanks!

 

[strongbower]

i would call, purely because i would pay $120 for the chance of hitting my long awaited royal but, yes. its a folding move for sure.

 

[Bombjack]

Looks like an easy fold now for sure.

- Your straight outs are probably no good
- Your flush draw may be no good
- There's no chance that they're both on draws and you'll win if they don't hit
- You now have no fold equity

You'd be in a much better position if you had the [as] - in that case I'd be much happier getting my money in 3-way.

 

[bw07507]

Looks like an easy fold now for sure.

- Your straight outs are probably no good
- Your flush draw may be no good
- There's no chance that they're both on draws and you'll win if they don't hit
- You now have no fold equity

You'd be in a much better position if you had the A♠ - in that case I'd be much happier getting my money in 3-way.

^^This

Im guessing u folded and then hit your royal

 

[DP_Machine]

Royal Draw? Conclusion

So...after thinking about it for about 15 seconds, I decide to muck my cards and see what I would've been up against. (At least I got to see them instead of wondering 'what if' for awhile).

Player A rolls over A♠, random brick card
Player B shows J,K for 2 pairs

Turn card brings a 9 - giving me a straight if I'd stayed in the hand
River was a brick giving Player B the win and felting Player A, who decided to leave after getting beat up pretty good after being up several hundred.

Yes, I would've won if I stayed in, but like many of you have already said, I had terrible odds and all the outs I may have had were cancelled out by someone else or could have potentially been eliminated when thinking about it during the hand.

Thanks for contributing and confirming what I was thinking but unsure about: made a mistake with the first call and made the proper fold on the 2nd opportunity.

 

[vanquish]

<3 reverse implied odds.