Right Fold?

[Schrubbler]

https://www.boomplayer.com/31144954_0E0098C5BA

Decent Player, I raised to protect myself from Flushdraws and Semi bluff my own Flush was this the first mistake? Was the fold correct here?

 

[vuk011]

Considering that you already have a lot in pot, I would here like to see river card. Your opponent here easily could have AA or AK

 

[witfighter]

I think you should have called. i would guess pocket 66 if not bluff

 

[c9h13no3]

Raise way more on the flop, jam the turn. Folding is burning money.

 

[fundiver199]

https://www.boomplayer.com/31144954_0E0098C5BA

Decent Player, I raised to protect myself from Flushdraws and Semi Bluff my own Flush was this the first mistake? Was the fold correct here?

I do think, it is a little bit of an overplay to raise top two on that board. Not only was a made flush possible but also a made straight. This mean the value of two pair go down tremendously, especially since you only have 4 outs to fill up. Sets are quite different, because they have more than twice the chance to fill up, so they are never that far behind.

Donk bets are always a bit strange, and I am not really sure, what story the Villain is telling here? That he have 97 and turned a straight? Or he flopped a flush and played it this way rather than 3-betting the flop? Its weird, and part of me want him to show me a hand here.

But I dont hate your fold, and more importantly if you just call on the flop, you dont see the turn like this. If you had just called the flop, and he bet the turn, its a call again. River then depend on the runout, his sizing etc.

 

[maxi_j]

I would raise bigger on flop because we want extract value from draws. Turn You can cal its 75% bet. If it betted more then 75% I would might think about folding.

But its good mentality if you capable of folding 2pair after re-raising.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

I don't like the fold either. As the PFR V shouldn't have much J9 from UTG+1. If we are folding I'd rather fold pre than now. V has a few flopped flushes that may play this way although I don't get why they would size that large OOP on the turn (Maybe KJdd would play this way hoping you have the Ad?). To me it feels more like a pair and a nut flush draw or a combo draw like AKdx, AJdx. AA, KK, also make sense, especially with one diamond. We are ahead of more of Vs range than we are behind IMO but tons of rivers could change that. For some of these reasons I also don't like the flop raise size. I think it's fine to flat the flop or raise depending on reads but if we are raising we should make it more than 3x at least. As played we are only folding out if V has air (which is when we want him to call) and since he didn't 3 bet flop and leads turn for a strong sizing it feels like V thinks we are the one on the draw. Turn card is a brick, nothing has changed, if we were raising (or calling) flop we should still be continuing. River will be a tough spot but that's poker. Sometimes we have to make a tough decision (unless we boat up of course). I'd probably fold A, J, or diamond rivers and call off vs most other run outs depending on sizing and reads.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

As a follow up here's a conservative combo count of where my head is at on this.

8 value combos that we are loosing to, and I'm being liberal here as many players don't open KJdd UTG+1 for example (and we mostly still have a few outs):
3 combos of 88, 1 combo of QQ, 1 combo of TT, 1 combo of AKdd, 1 combo of AJdd, 1 combo of KJdd. And again, why would anyone bet 3/4 pot on the turn with the nut flush? But let's put all these in for arguments sake.

AT LEAST 12 combos of hands we are ahead of:
3 combos of AdAx (maybe all 6 combos but we will be conservative), 3 combos of KdKx, 4 combos of AdKx, 4 combos of AxKd, 2 combos of AdQx.

This seems pretty worst case scenario where he has no crazy bluffs and overplays the nuts a lot we are only behind 8 out of 20 times here. Depending on the player we could eliminate some of the nut flushes from Vs range and add some hands like KdQx, KdJx, etc...