QQ facing agression on drawy board (nl10$)

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jeffred1111

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Sorry if this isn't converted, I cut off the headline when I copied it.

Seat 1: jeffred1111 ($25.30 in chips)
Seat 2: MarhabaBoy ($11.15 in chips)
Seat 4: bobvelthuis ($12.90 in chips)
Seat 5: Drakospower ($8.85 in chips)
bobvelthuis: posts small blind $0.05
Drakospower: posts big blind $0.10
LER4T: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jeffred1111 [Qh Qd]
jeffred1111: raises $0.30 to $0.40
MarhabaBoy: calls $0.40
bobvelthuis: folds
catorambo has returned
Drakospower: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [5c 7s Ts]
Drakospower: checks
jeffred1111: bets $1
MarhabaBoy: raises $1.50 to $2.50
Drakospower: folds
jeffred1111: ???

What is our line here ? A lot of hands will raise here to isolate and get it Heads-up, and while we are crushing some of them (JJ, 99, 88, 66), we are in trouble if we face overcards that have flush outs or straight/flush draw combo wich I can see villain calling our raise with since we have a pretty loose image preflop. A set might also raise here to price out draws as would a higher pp (but I feel villain would have raise preflop since he is a solid player).

Another problem is turn play since a lot of cards are scary to us. Even a 3 completes a draw.

I say fold a lot here, since we are giving away massive reverse implied odds on this texture and are probably at less than 33% equity if the BB gets in also with a big draw (wich he can very well have if we consider the board).
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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This is push/fold (because 10max is about the big pots) and you're logic for folding seems good here. Since you're already up for the session I'm even more for a fold (this is really only because I've been running kind of bad lately thoguh, lol)

Chances are though that you're ahead at this point, so shoving is probably +EV if you don't mind a quick swing, because you're gtd to be up against a decent draw.
 
J

jeffred1111

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Shoving is maybe not as +EV as one may think. It certainly is, but I'm not willing to push the tiny edge we might have (I also saw that I made a mistake and not noticed that BB had already folded in the OP).

Example:

Button has 4s6s (or any other straight/flush combo, wich are a plenty on this board), well has 6 outs for the straight draw and 9 for the flush draw. Same thing if he has overcards and flush cards, since even a Q of the appropriate suit makes us go behind (altough we have semi-good equity if board does bring a Q). Opponent could also have a set or two pairs already (unlikely), so we might be calling while massively behind, with no backdoor flush/straight draw to save us. Plus, pot is pretty small, but will get huge if we call.

I think QQ is not a big enough hand here. KK or AA might be, but QQ is way too vulnerable.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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How are we 3 handed? You bet, player raised, other player folded...

As it is you seem set that he has a combo draw. Tx and all types of pairs are probable too. If villain is loose enough to have called your PF raise with 64s, then you're probably even farther ahead.

I agree with Emprorer; this is push/fold. I say push. Too many draws and weaker pairs are possible. Factor in that you have a loose/aggro image PF and he could be playing back with lots.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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dude, just shove. you're overthinking it. it's 10NL and you have an overpair vs. a shortstack. if he hit a set, he hit a set. those are the only 3 realistic hands that beat you now. yeah, you're barely ahead of a lot of draws but pure statistics say a T, JJ, 88-99, or air are a lot more likely than a set
 
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J

jeffred1111

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How are we 3 handed? You bet, player raised, other player folded...

As it is you seem set that he has a combo draw. Tx and all types of pairs are probable too. If villain is loose enough to have called your PF raise with 64s, then you're probably even farther ahead.

I agree with Emprorer; this is push/fold. I say push. Too many draws and weaker pairs are possible. Factor in that you have a loose/aggro image PF and he could be playing back with lots.

See second post where I notice my flagrant and stupid mistake.
 
zachvac

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I push here, maybe not a flat out shove, but I'm going to at least $7
, enough to virtually pot commit the opponent. If he's on a large combo draw you want money in the pot. You seem to be scared of a big draw yet you want to keep the pot small to give him odds? I say take away his odds and push back hard.

Also, you said KK or AA were good enough to do this but not QQ. Most likely AA or KK would have re-raised PF. It could be AA slowplaying I guess, but KK is too vulnerable to an A to simply flat call a 3x raise PF. But he could easily have TPTK having you on a draw (and he still has a draw there as well), as well as many other things that you have beat. If he has 2 pair or a set, at least you're not completely dead. I push here.
 
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viking999

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I agree with push here. Not necessarily a straight up push, but enough to pot commit him no matter what ($7.50 or $8 maybe).

I'm not really seeing how we're only 33% against any kind of draw. OESFD is somewhere in the 55% to 60% range, no? And of course if you shove on the flop, there's no reverse implied odds.

We're up against a ten quite often. 89 or any two spades is possible. IMO, putting him on AsKs here is a bit paranoid (after all, he didn't reraise you). 6s8s and 4s6s are possible but unlikely to call a raise immediately after the raiser preflop. I'd say the biggest dangers are the sets, 8s9s, and AA (rare for same reason as AKs). I think the value from raising into a strong T or a flush draw is big enough (and common enough) to offset those times when you're screwed.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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What is a $7 or $8 bet going to do that a push isn't?
 
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

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What is a $7 or $8 bet going to do that a push isn't?

*Except make us feel retarded if we are in fact behind and we call off the rest of our stack as an underdog
 
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jeffred1111

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What is a $7 or $8 bet going to do that a push isn't?

Exactly, we are being minraised here on the flop and we are in push/fold mode. For the results oriented, I folded and opponent showed KK. I wrote that in my notes and an orbit later (with me in the CO), I raise with 88 and he flat out calls. Flop comes 238 rainbow. I play the hand exactly the same and he does his minraise but this time I push: he stacks off with AA. Yummy.
 
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