PLO - "M" is for "Maximize"

[vanquish]

No reads, but betting pattern suggests that villain flopped something like top set.

***** Hand History for Game 6462705321 *****
$100 USD PL Omaha - Wednesday, October 31, 17:15:52 ET 2007
Table Table 128284 (No DP) (real money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 4: tally666 ( $52.29 USD )
Seat 7: astralia ( $171.65 USD )
Seat 9: pako8 ( $46.06 USD )
Seat 5: playeral13 ( $193.50 USD )
Seat 6: Nilla2 ( $98 USD )
Seat 8: silver69222 ( $0 USD )
playeral13 posts small blind [$0.50 USD].
Nilla2 posts big blind [$1 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to astralia [ 4d 4c Ah Ad ]
silver69222 has joined the table.
astralia raises [$3 USD]
pako8 folds
tally666 folds
Iblis_0477 has joined the table.
playeral13 calls [$2.50 USD]
Nilla2 folds
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, 2d, Qd ]
playeral13 bets [$5 USD]
astralia calls [$5 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
Flinta80 has joined the table.
playeral13 bets [$8 USD]
>You have options at Table 127840 Table!.
astralia raises [$19 USD]
playeral13 calls [$11 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 6c ]
playeral13 checks
astralia bets ??

 

[skoldpadda]

easiest pot bet ever

 

[Bombjack]

If you think he has a set, he's not calling very much, maybe $15 into a $55 pot would be good?

You should just pot it up on the flop and raise bigger on the turn - if he's on a full house draw you need to charge him early on in the hand, not on the river when he's missed.

 

[dj11]

"V" do you really need guidance here?

Even top set might fold here, I'm thinking he has the King hi flush. I wouldn't want to let the board pair up tho, I think you have to go for the kill asap!
Pot bet. Maybe even 125% of the pot, which will look like a steal, and if he does have the flush, he'll call.

 

[ChuckTs]

Agree with BJ. Not only what he said, but your line looks a lot like a slowplayed FD (what else raises the brick 7 turn after smooth calling the flop?) and a set might not call much at this point.

 

[t1riel]

I would bet at least $10, probably in the range of $10-$16. Anything less might send a singal that you have a monster hand. Anything more I think your opponent will fold.

 

[vanquish]

"V" do you really need guidance here?

Yes, I have no idea what kind of value I can get out of a set on this type of board in omaha

 

[Schatzdog]

I think the answer, against a decent player, is very little.

 

[Bombjack]

However there's merit in the suggestion that the most +EV play is just to pot it and hope he calls with a worse flush, or puts you on the naked Ace, thinking you'd bet less if you really had it and look you up light.

A line that gets me paid off quite a bit is re-potting the flop, checking behind on the turn, then betting full pot on the river. They never put you on the nuts and will look you up with any half decent flush. Only good if they have a worse flush, although if they have a set, they don't usually call when you raise the flop.

 

[robwhufc]

Pot bet. Maybe even 125% of the pot, which will look like a steal, and if he does have the flush, he'll call.

It's called Pot LIMIT for a reason!

2 schools of thought then for this hand. Some say, $55 pot, bet $55. Others, he'll probably only call $10-$16 with a half decent hand.

Second level thinking then, if you had King Flush what would pot bet tell you? That he's got the nuts? Wouldn't Ace flush lure you in with $10 bet? Maybe King Flush is more likely to call $55 than $10?

If you bet pot here 3 times and get a call once you'd be better off than betting $16 3 times and getting called 3 times.

I'd bet the pot here (though I think Bombjack is certainly correct, you could have built the pot up more earlier in the hand). A set is going to fold to a $16 bet IMO, a little $10 "curiousity call" teaser would have to work 6 times to make it more +EV than a pot bet. Bet the pot and expect him to fold, but hope he calls (or re-pots!!!!!).

 

[dj11]

OOPS!

 

[vanquish]

My thought process was:
Smaller turn bet by villain suggests that he is afraid of the nut flush.
My turn raise will lure him into calling even if he does put me on the flush (he likely has FH redraw, and may think I don't actually have a flush)
I decided 2/3 pot would be the most he could call without the nuts. IMO betting the entire pot pretty much telegraphs that I have the stone-cold nuts (I have been playing relatively TAG), and betting something like $10 into the pot is just a waste of equity.
I went for a $31 bet, he snapcalled, and mucked top set.

 

[Bombjack]

If you put yourself in Villain's shoes are you calling $31 on the river with just a set?

 

[vanquish]

If you put yourself in Villain's shoes are you calling $31 on the river with just a set?

Maybe :/ I could see someone making this play with a lower set I suppose. I really don't know, that's why I asked. So I'm supposed to bet like $16 on river or what?

 

[Bombjack]

I'd say it's a pretty big leak to be paying off someone who's betting a lot on a flushing board. When you bet this river you either have a good flush or total air, never medium strength hand with some showdown value. Top set is no stronger here than KQxx.

 

[vanquish]

So how do I get value out of a flopped flush against a set? Re-pot flop, check turn, value bet river? Wouldn't a thinking villain just fold on flop?

 

[Bombjack]

^^ This line isn't much good against a set because you shouldn't be giving free cards and you're losing a ton of value you could have got on the turn (but then you don't know that your opponent has a set unless you show down). The basic line that you can't go far wrong with is potting every street, although it depends on how aggressively you would play other hands, and it's OK to mix it up occasionally to stay deceptive.

On the turn here, you actually gave your opponent correct odds to call with a set, which can't be good. He has 10 outs from 40 unknown cards to beat you, giving him 25% equity. So your bet amount X on the turn into pot P, has to be at least the value given by

X/(P+2X) = 25%
(1-0.5)X = 0.25 P
X = (1/2)P

So your opponent can profitably call up to half pot on the turn from pot odds alone, i.e. with $33 in the pot after his turn bet and your call, you have to raise it at least $16.50 more. Raise it $11 like you did, and it's costing him $11 for a 25% chance to win $44, so his EV is 25%*$44+75%*(-$11) = +$2.75, which must therefore be -EV for you.

You have to think about implied odds as well however, and how much you're going to call if the river pairs the board and he bets. You're probably not going to get away from it unless he bets more than half pot. So assuming he'll get paid off for half pot if he hits on the river, and check-folds anything else,

25%(P+X+0.5*(P+2X)) = 75%(X)
(1/6)P+(1/2)X = (3/4)X
X = (2/3)P

So really he's break-even, assuming he gets paid off, for anything up to a two-thirds pot-sized raise, in this case a $22 raise to $30 on the turn. But, you need to make it unprofitable for him to call, so you need to raise more than $22 on the turn. This way, if he folds, you have the same EV as if you raised $22 more and he called, BUT if he calls, that becomes even more profitable for you. In practice, people just mash the pot button rather than making a raise between two-thirds and full pot.

Of course you can't just put him on a set here and it may in fact be more profitable vs his range, which includes many worse flushes, to bet smaller. Also, you may be able to make a small suck-bet if the river blanks, as discussed in previous posts, which would reduce the amount to bet on the turn slightly.

The short answer, however, is bet big on flop and turn. On the river, if your opponent has a set, he's unlikely to pay you off at all if he's any good. (You seem to have been lucky and have caught a live one...) The most profitable thing versus his range, as Rob says, is probably betting quite large and hoping to be paid off by a worse flush. Funnily enough, if you're putting him on a flush rather than a set, you played this hand OK!

 

[vanquish]

Thanks a ton sir.