PLO lessons 3: What's the best play here?

skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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What considerations are important here?

Read on initial raiser (MP2): tight, will re-raise weak bets, fairly conservative. He will make a limp re-raise pot move like this typically with QQxx, KKxx, or AAxx. Have not seen him do this with 10JQK or such big connector hands.

Read on all-in villain (UTG): I'm pretty damned sure he's got the nuts. :D

What's your play and why?

pokerstars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($54)
CO ($12.65)
Button ($7.30)
SB ($8.95)
BB ($9.90)
UTG ($17)
Hero ($28.15)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 8
club.gif
, 9
heart.gif
, Q
spade.gif
, 9
spade.gif
. MP1 posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 calls $0.10, CO raises to $0.3, 1 fold, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $2, CO folds, SB folds, UTG calls $1.70, Hero calls $1.70.
Flop: ($6.80) 3
heart.gif
, J
diamond.gif
, T
heart.gif
(3 players)
UTG checks
Hero checks
MP2 bets $3.10
UTG raises $11.90 to $15 and is all-in
Hero ?
 
bubbasbestbabe

bubbasbestbabe

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Hero folds. All you are working on is a str8 draw. Two hearts are on the board. The odds are not in your favor to pull this out. You also don't even have the high str8 draw. Fold.
 
Effexor

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Fold. Drawing to second or third nuts (or worse even) is nothing you want to do in Omaha.
 
mrsnake3695

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I agree fold, and I would add fold preflop too. This is the very definition of a trap hand in Omaha. 2 cards to a non-nut flush draw=very dangerous. Pocket 9s are often beat out and it's very easy to get the wrong end of a straight and lose to the high end or a flush.

If you read anyh good books on Omaha most good pros will tell you that Omaha should be played even tighter than holdem. You should generaly only play hands that can give you the nuts. Unless you get 2 9s what nut hand can u get unless you get very very lucky.
 
dwbrown7680

dwbrown7680

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Well it's an interesting hand, and although the ones above me have said insta-fold I can't say that i automatically agree. From what I can tell our initial raiser who continues on the flop is most likely holding A,A,x,x, possible nut flush draw; the UTG i would have to say hit a set of Jacks with a medium flush draw possible. The hero is then faced with interesting options: any 7, 8, 9, Q, or K that isnt a heart (so 15 outs) will give us either the 2nd nuts or the nuts to the hand. The intial raiser in this hand has to be beat unless he spikes an Ace or hits that possible nut flush draw. Given your stack size in reference to bet in , i'd eventually say fold I guess, but I can't say that given good reads on everyone that I might not call too.
 
V

viking999

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The hero is then faced with interesting options: any 7, 8, 9, Q, or K that isnt a heart (so 15 outs) will give us either the 2nd nuts or the nuts to the hand.

Not quite right there. There are only two 8, 9, Q each that is not a heart, so it's 12 outs.

I agree that it's not an auto-fold, though. I'm not so certain that the first guy into the pot has to have a flush draw. Looks like a "testing the waters" bet with an overpair to me. So there's a decent chance that we'll get heads up with a call. If no one is going to be in there with a flush draw, we DEFINITELY want to be in this hand. Even versus the flush draw, we're still going to be about break even (versus a set of jacks and a nut flush draw, we are 25% to win and getting 3:1 according to odds calculator).

In the heat of the moment, I'm probably 50/50, but after reviewing it, I think it's a call. I didn't realize how strong even a minor wrap is versus a set.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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What are the odds UTG has a flush draw?

Calculate your pot equity given a likely fold from MP2 (who I also read as "testing the waters... with an overpair") vs UTG's possible range of hands.

I don't think this is the easy fold people are making it out to be given a good analysis of the situation and the betting.

I think viking999 is more in line with what I'd consider the correct answer.
 
dwbrown7680

dwbrown7680

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Now that I look again....

I still say that MP2 has A,A,x,x with a possible flush draw, but i'd strongly believe that UTG is pushing with K,Q of hearts in his hand, possibly an ace in there too, giving him more options on the str, with the 2nd strongest flush draw, justifying to himself to push all in. So looking at it that way, I dont think our wrap is strong enough and would lay it down in the end, after much debate.
 
J

joeeagles

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What are the odds UTG has a flush draw?

Calculate your pot equity given a likely fold from MP2 (who I also read as "testing the waters... with an overpair") vs UTG's possible range of hands.

I don't think this is the easy fold people are making it out to be given a good analysis of the situation and the betting.

I don't know what the odds are of UTG having a flush draw are, but there are many hands he could have that make you a 2 to 1 dog and even worse. The math in omaha is a lot different than in holdem. While everyone does know this, in the same time not everyone realizes just "how much" different it really is. Counting your outs can lead to many mistakes in omaha.

The pot is $24 and you need to put $15 to call, so it offering you 1.6 to 1. If we think this villain has an overpair and a flush draw, we're 2 to 1 to win. Worse yet, if he has a 9, we're 3 to 1. Our best case is if he has a set w/o hearts. A set with 2 hearts and we're fried, about 12% to win.

It's just about impossible to know what he has, but if we base this on odds, on what it's more "likely" he has, then 2 hearts + a pair with the board or 2 hearts and an overpair are more probable than a set, and those hands have us at 2 to 1.

Overall this is not a great spot to call, because we have odds only against a set. We can call and get lucky of course (everyone does in omaha) but that doesn't make it correct. The equity coming from MP2 fold just isn't enough to justify the call vs most hands villain could have.

BTW, I'd fold PF for sure.
 
dj11

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Given the aggressive bet by UTG, and the read you have that he has the nuts, it looks like an easy fold.

But at this point in this hand, what are the nuts, JJxx in his hand? To your straight draw, that JJ isn't all that much in omaha. Any of 5 cards (KQ987) non hearts, will fill your straight. The nut straight would be the non heart 7. so you have 3 quality outs, and 12 more iffy outs, lets call those good for 8 outs. 9 reasonable outs, 2 cards to come, .....thinking ...thinking.....If it were just 2 handed I would probably call here, but MP2 has you covered and could press that advantage here too easily.

It a fold.
 
mrsnake3695

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All the talk about outs and odds and such is great, but we're missing the big picture. Drawing to non-nut hands in Omaha is a sure way to bleed chips fast. Even if you hit your straight you can still easily loose not only to a flush but also to a higher straight. Hands with KQ or AK can crush you when you think you hit. It's just not worth it to put chips in the middle on a drawing hand that might not even be good if you do hit it.

And I am going to once again say fold pre-flop please. Winning Omaha players become winners by staying away from trap hands like these no matter how cheaply you think you can get in. The problem with this type of hand is that you will often get a peice of the flop and continue on with the hand drawing dead or almost dead. Sure every now and then you will win a hand but more often you will either chase and never get there or hit and lose to a better hand.
 
dwbrown7680

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I would not consider (Q,9,8,9) a trap hand. It is in the perfect neighborhood for lots of different straight opportunities, along with a set, or possible flush (although chasing or betting a Q high flush in Omaha IS murder). As long as the flop comes rainbow I like this hand alot. Until you get to higher stakes (and by this I mean at least $5/$10 PLO) 75% of the players who play Omaha rely/use too much of their Hold'em knowledge in a game that is in a league of it's own. People will constantly overbet hands such as A,A,x,x and the like when in all reality unless i'm heads up I really dont like that hand as it doesnt have much potential of improving and leaves me relying on an Ace or the nut flush. Really at the micro's I think the overpair is a definite here. I still lean towards UTG having either the J,J,x,x (mid flush draw) or the Q,K hearts with a pair on the board already. But that's just my two cents.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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This is good. Lots of excellent points. Best Omaha thread for discussion I've read on here in some time.
 
dwbrown7680

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I imagine that eventually skold is going to post the rest of the HH for this....after all the debate i'm rather interested to see their hands and how it turned out :rolleyes:
 
J

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I would not consider (Q,9,8,9) a trap hand. It is in the perfect neighborhood for lots of different straight opportunities, along with a set, or possible flush (although chasing or betting a Q high flush in Omaha IS murder). As long as the flop comes rainbow I like this hand alot. Until you get to higher stakes (and by this I mean at least $5/$10 PLO) 75% of the players who play Omaha rely/use too much of their Hold'em knowledge in a game that is in a league of it's own. People will constantly overbet hands such as A,A,x,x and the like when in all reality unless i'm heads up I really dont like that hand as it doesnt have much potential of improving


I agree with most of this. The reason why I said to fold this hand PF is because its a $0.05/$0.10 table and it was raised to $2. Speculative hands like 99Q8 are fine to play in Omaha because admittedly it has potential, but I don't want to spend 20BB's on it to see the flop. When you look at the action PF, until it was going to cost $0.30 and it was going 4/5-way, I think it's fine to play hands like this every now and then, even if, when it goes 4-way or more, you're absolutely correct that the Q-high flush is murder. But the hand has many possiblities beyond the flush, and until it's cheap to get in I have nothing against it.

Although it's true people overbet AAxx hands, when they are doing it PF it's not wrong. If I could get all my chips in PF with that hand vs 1 or 2 opponents, I'd be happy, especially if it's double suited and with a broadway card for straight possibilities. Honestly though, if it's going all-in vs 5 opponents, I'm no longer happy because the chances of it holding against them are slim. The mistake most players at the small stakes make with AAxx is that they go too far with it from the flop on when it doesn't improve, particularly if the pot isn't HU. Many times, about Omaha, you hear that it's a game of the nuts. At the small stakes this is 10 fold more important than it is so at the higher stakes because pots go multiway more often than not. I still think it's ok to raise AAxx PF to $0.30, but after that you need to play it cautiously. This is the part that gets overlooked, as you pointed out.


You're also correct IMO when you state that people rely too much on their Holdem knowledge when playing Omaha, and I agree that is a huge mistake. Counting your outs in low stakes Omaha will almost always lead to you making an expensive mistake. The only effective outs you can count are those that give you the nuts, for the rest you should look at it in terms of percentages, more than outs. When they don't look favorable, as in this hand, you should fold.

This flop is leaving you for sure behind at the moment, almost anything beats you right now. You have only 3 outs to the nuts, and it's asking you to put $15 in a $24 pot. I think there is so much wrong in making this call that I don't even know where to start. While you still could, of course, win it if you call (sooo many suckouts in Omaha), the percentages are certainly against it. The main mistake is counting your outs, because so many of them could be dead ones. Putting $15 here would be reckless to say the least, and relying too much on luck. As bad as it might seem though, I insist that the bigger mistake was getting into this by calling the $2 PF.
 
dwbrown7680

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Speculative hands like 99Q8 are fine to play in Omaha because admittedly it has potential, but I don't want to spend 20BB's on it to see the flop.

I whole heartedly agree with this statement.


Although it's true people overbet AAxx hands, when they are doing it PF it's not wrong.

I was referring to post flop play, so you are correct again.

You're also correct IMO when you state that people rely too much on their Holdem knowledge when playing Omaha, and I agree that is a huge mistake. Counting your outs in low stakes Omaha will almost always lead to you making an expensive mistake. The only effective outs you can count are those that give you the nuts, for the rest you should look at it in terms of percentages, more than outs. When they don't look favorable, as in this hand, you should fold.

3 cheers for Joe

I insist that the bigger mistake was getting into this by calling the $2 PF.

Wholeheartedly agree once again.
 
dwbrown7680

dwbrown7680

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Now wait a darn rootin tootin minute....

Skold sooooooooo has not posted the finale on this one yet
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Results are less important than generating a good discussion. I frequently leave out results.
 
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