Overpair plus Straight Draw Best Line?

[ventrolloquist]

I was wondering if there's any merit in calling pocket pairs in a 3 bet pot on the following board, IP.

NL20

456r

To sum up the hand.

Hero, CO, 350bb, hand: 88
Villain, BB, ~35bb? Definitely a reg but didnt have a big sample on him to judge how good, I guess the small stack implies he wasn't very serious

CO, Hero. Bet 3bb.

(Bigger than standard raise given BBs stack I guess, but I was targeting 2 fish between us)

BU. fold
SB. fold
BB. Raise 12bb
CO, Hero. Call

Pot 13bb

Flop 456r

BB Bet. 6.5bb
CO, Hero. Call

Turn, 9c

BB. Shove ~66 percent pot
CO, Hero. Call

I ran this through a solver and it always shoves pocket pairs on the flop. This is what Ive also been told is right by another player whos more skilled than myself.

However, as an exploit, could calling be considered profitable? My logic was that I expected villain to double barrel his stack in with most of his range since I thought that he would assume that I was overfolding given how the population overfolds, and the SPR was so small there was little risk for me to call 2 streets with just a pair. I really want to understand the logic of this spot in depth.

 

[UkoChebuko]

I think it is a fold preflop. Maybe he will fold sometime vs shove, but pretty rare. I don't think it is a profitable shove.
You can't call vs 35bb . But whatever...How he raise 12bb preflop and the pot is 13bb? But again, whatever...I will go AI there. On the flop...
The logic is you have an "extra" equity , because this gutshot. This is a lot of equity.

 

[Collin Moshman]

I agree that the more important street here is pre-flop. If the effective stack is 35bb, a 3-bet to 12bb from Villain commits us and I’d either shove or fold pre. This is particularly true with a less playable hand like 88 compared to one like KQs where taking a flop would be more reasonable.

As played, I’d jam flop because the pot is now bigger than the effective remaining stack. But calling can’t be a big mistake here with your pair + draw combo as sometimes this will allow him to continue a bluff.

 

[messats]

.all hands are winning or losing hands except the nuts

knowing when to be aggressive or passive in a situation is where skill comes into play

 

[ventrolloquist]

I think it is a fold preflop. Maybe he will fold sometime vs shove, but pretty rare. I don't think it is a profitable shove.
You can't call vs 35bb . But whatever...How he raise 12bb preflop and the pot is 13bb? But again, whatever...I will go AI there. On the flop...
The logic is you have an "extra" equity , because this gutshot. This is a lot of equity.

Oops, I accidentally added 1bb instead of 0.5 bb from SB

Im def not folding 88 vs a wide bb 3 bet range though [emoji14]

 

[ventrolloquist]

I agree that the more important street here is pre-flop. If the effective stack is 35bb, a 3-bet to 12bb from Villain commits us and I’d either shove or fold pre. This is particularly true with a less playable hand like 88 compared to one like KQs where taking a flop would be more reasonable.

As played, I’d jam flop because the pot is now bigger than the effective remaining stack. But calling can’t be a big mistake here with your pair + draw combo as sometimes this will allow him to continue a bluff.

Thanks, really appreciate the explanation. I think youre right, hed probably Call.

If anyones wondering villain had KQs

 

[UkoChebuko]

I can't understand. How much is the 3 bet? How many blinds? He have 35bb...If he shove pre, maybe we can call. But vs this big 3bet from 35bb stack, the things are not simple. And obv with hand, like 88, you can't just call. All in or fold...But 4bet shove is worse than raise-call vs shove. That's the problem. His range is value heavy, when he make NAI 3bet. And no FE, pretty rare. Why you like this hand so much!? You think this hand is good enough against "the wide range for resteal". I don't think so. This hand is "good enough" to do something stupid, that's I think. 99 is a different story. TT is a "very" different story. 77, 66, 55 just the same story like 88. What you expect to see from him? 55? 66? You need FE or smaller pocket pairs to be this play +EV. Pretty optimistic to expect this often. Or even ever...
Ok, what you will do with 55 here!? 88 is good enough, but 55 maybe not. In your eyes...

 

[bgomez89]

knowing when to be aggressive or passive in a situation is where skill comes into play

Off topic but I love your posts lol

 

[ventrolloquist]

I can't understand. How much is the 3 bet? How many blinds? He have 35bb...If he shove pre, maybe we can call. But vs this big 3bet from 35bb stack, the things are not simple. And obv with hand, like 88, you can't just call. All in or fold...But 4bet shove is worse than raise-call vs shove. That's the problem. His range is value heavy, when he make NAI 3bet. And no FE, pretty rare. Why you like this hand so much!? You think this hand is good enough against "the wide range for resteal". I don't think so. This hand is "good enough" to do something stupid, that's I think. 99 is a different story. TT is a "very" different story. 77, 66, 55 just the same story like 88. What you expect to see from him? 55? 66? You need FE or smaller pocket pairs to be this play +EV. Pretty optimistic to expect this often. Or even ever...
Ok, what you will do with 55 here!? 88 is good enough, but 55 maybe not. In your eyes...

Im dont know a lot about shortstack play and what a 3bet instead of a shove means in that context. But I assumed the guy was just playing regular ranges for a 100bb stack.

In which case 55 and 88 are calls vs the standard size 3bet of 4x assuming he is a reg.

Well depending on the ranges you use they can become call or fold hands. At least at normal stack sizes. No idea about 30bb deep.

 

[ventrolloquist]

I can't understand. How much is the 3 bet? How many blinds? He have 35bb...If he shove pre, maybe we can call. But vs this big 3bet from 35bb stack, the things are not simple. And obv with hand, like 88, you can't just call. All in or fold...But 4bet shove is worse than raise-call vs shove. That's the problem. His range is value heavy, when he make NAI 3bet. And no FE, pretty rare. Why you like this hand so much!? You think this hand is good enough against "the wide range for resteal". I don't think so. This hand is "good enough" to do something stupid, that's I think. 99 is a different story. TT is a "very" different story. 77, 66, 55 just the same story like 88. What you expect to see from him? 55? 66? You need FE or smaller pocket pairs to be this play +EV. Pretty optimistic to expect this often. Or even ever...
Ok, what you will do with 55 here!? 88 is good enough, but 55 maybe not. In your eyes...

He 3bet 4x my raise. As this was someone who I labelled as a reg (regardless of their skill level), at NL20 I put him on a mixed or polarized 3betting range that has a lot of speculative non-broadway hands, with a fairly large BB 3bet % to boot.

Now the closest solver preflop chart I found is BU vs. SB at 40bb deep. At that stack depth, when SB 3 bets a standard size (not shove), BU is calling all middle and low pocket pairs at 100% frequency and reraising hands like 88 at about 15-30% frequency. (interestingly it's calling 88 more often than 66 and 77 which are more weighted towards shoving.)

BB is probably 3betting half as much as SB at that stack depth, just as a rough extrapolation, the shallower we get the more BB is 3betting and the more it's shoving. And seeing as how 22 was a callable hand vs SB range, I'm sure 88 is playable vs a BB range. And I agree with Colin here that it's a shove because this hand is often close to a flip and that combined with fold equity is profitable. 88 has anywhere between 45% and 55% equity depending on the width of the BB's 3bet range


Basing this on tournament ranges though, so it could be that rake drastically changes strategy. I assume rake would encourage wider 3 betting if anything which makes 88 even more playable.

Please correct me if I'm wrong though and explain why, this is a really grey area for me. I'm not thinking exploitatively in this spot as much as you are because I'm just assuming a preflop reg by default.

Can you explain why a BB 3bet is stronger than a shove in this situation?

 

[UkoChebuko]

Ok, mate. GL...
Do you really asking this!? Why NAI raise is stronger than AI raise.

 

[LevySystem]

Ok, mate. GL...
Do you really asking this!? Why NAI raise is stronger than AI raise.

I mean, he asked pretty nicely.


So please enlighten us, I'm also quite interested...

 

[UkoChebuko]

Ok, I will try to explain. I assume you never played tournaments. Or you never learned or think for the game in the tournaments.

Two things for the AI raise. If the guy is kinda "normal" (like in this case)

1. The people like the hand, the equity vs your calling range. But they also want FE.
2. The hand have pure playability.

Two things about the NAI raise.

1. The hand ussualy is strong. They are not "afraid" from your call with your entire range. They will like the FE as well, but they actually don't care, "whatever".
2. The hand have good playability.

Ok, I think it is pretty clear, why the NAI raise ussually is stronger than the AI raise.

What about your hand!? 88 have monstrous equity vs 100% range, ATC. Not so good equity vs "real" ranges for 3bet. That's why this solver "likes" 88 so much. This is "a top range" in "his eyes". Not in reality. 88 always will have "acceptable" equity vs "real" ranges, at least AK is in this range. You hand have very poor playability. Vs ranges without small pocket pairs (most likely), you hand have zero playability.

What is the meaning for all this!?

First, if he shoves preflop with 35bb, your hand will be stronger than if he do this NAI 3bet.
As I said, I don't think your equity is enough for shove vs NAI 3bet. Also there is a rake. Will be, if your have good FE. But I don't think so. Will be, if he do that with small pocket pairs often. Again, I don't think so.
The call...Your hand have zero playability, his hands most likely have very good playability. You will be "blind", he not. Very often you will make a mistake (fold or call), he not. If you have hand like KQs or even JTs, then the things will be different. You are not "blind" OTF....

 

[BelFish]

Calling against short stack 3bet is bad, you have to catch sets against deep stacks. And since you played, you have to push the flop, because the hand has normal equity and may have some kind of fold equity (maybe he will fold AK).

 

[loafaBREAD]

If you shove and he calls, you only need 45% equity to BE. This is assuming he never 3! folds. (you can check my math- it's been a long day!)

Also, (not a short-stacked or tourney guy), when short stacks are involved I assume sizings should decrease. You raised larger than normal, and he still 3! the full 4x. If it were me I'd assume this guy will call any.

88 probably isn't getting that 45% against his range, but you know V best.

I don't understand the point of a calling range here- I think you 4! everything or flat call everything vs his stack and his 3! sizing. You'd really be getting into the weeds trying to split your range apart here. If he's aggro I'd lean towards 4! ai all of your cont. range.

 

[ventrolloquist]

Ok, I will try to explain. I assume you never played tournaments. Or you never learned or think for the game in the tournaments.

Two things for the AI raise. If the guy is kinda "normal" (like in this case)

1. The people like the hand, the equity vs your calling range. But they also want FE.
2. The hand have pure playability.

Two things about the NAI raise.

1. The hand ussualy is strong. They are not "afraid" from your call with your entire range. They will like the FE as well, but they actually don't care, "whatever".
2. The hand have good playability.

Ok, I think it is pretty clear, why the NAI raise ussually is stronger than the AI raise.

What about your hand!? 88 have monstrous equity vs 100% range, ATC. Not so good equity vs "real" ranges for 3bet. That's why this solver "likes" 88 so much. This is "a top range" in "his eyes". Not in reality. 88 always will have "acceptable" equity vs "real" ranges, at least AK is in this range. You hand have very poor playability. Vs ranges without small pocket pairs (most likely), you hand have zero playability.

What is the meaning for all this!?

First, if he shoves preflop with 35bb, your hand will be stronger than if he do this NAI 3bet.
As I said, I don't think your equity is enough for shove vs NAI 3bet. Also there is a rake. Will be, if your have good FE. But I don't think so. Will be, if he do that with small pocket pairs often. Again, I don't think so.
The call...Your hand have zero playability, his hands most likely have very good playability. You will be "blind", he not. Very often you will make a mistake (fold or call), he not. If you have hand like KQs or even JTs, then the things will be different. You are not "blind" OTF....

Thanks for explaining, I think it boils down to not being sure if villain has a solid preflop game but is not stack aware, vs. him being a straight up shitreg, I'm starting to think it may have been the latter. This decides the width of his 3bet range

 

[UkoChebuko]

"Blind" means "very poor playability". And this playability matters even with SPR = ~1. I was accused of misinformation, spam. I will try to explain better. This situations are very common in the tournaments. But the cash game players don't have a good experience with this SPR. That's why some regs exploit that (short stack strategy for the cash games).

For easy understanding you can compare 88 and KQs. 88 have very high equity vs random hand, acceptable equity in All in situations, very poor playability. KQs don't have good equity in All in situations preflop, this ranges are Ax heavy and pocket pairs heavy. But KQs have very good playability. We can call that "flopability". Mainly used from PLO players. You often will have "something" OTF. Can be pair, can be FD, can be BD FD + gutshot +overcards, can be OESD. With 88 we hope for set, but this will be very rare. Sometime we will have something else. Like in this hand, gutshot + 2 outs. But again, very rare. Your overpair means nothing vs NAI 3bet. Your equity with underpair will be very similar to your equity with overpair.

Look at this ranges. Only for example.

AI 3bet

As you can see, there are a different combos for each hand. Because you will see some hands more often ( AI 3bet). 88 have a lot more equity than KQs. This is only an example. To show you the difference.

NAI 3bet

Now the both hands have the same equity (less than 1% difference). But still KQs have very good playability. Why this matters? Look at this boards. Let's say the hands are and .










You are facing four different scenarios for each board. Small bet (20% bet), 50% bet, shove and check. You know only the possible range preflop. For NAI 3bet (up there). You know nothing about his range postflop. You can use three scenarios for the flop. Bluff, value, entire range. And you can see your equity. And the possible FE. Vs your possible raise. Or if he checks, again , possible call, fold or raise vs your bet (if you bet). With bluff heavy range, with value range, with the entire range. Maybe you decide to shove, if he checks. Again, No Fe with the entire range. Or FE from the weak range. If the flop is check-check, then you repeat with different cards OTT.

If you do this "exercise", you will understand why hand, like KQ is better, even if the equity of 88 and KQs is just the same vs NAI 3bet. Do some work, if you want some knowledge. You will see why fold or call with 88 very often will be mistake. And why he have an advantage. He have FE with his bluffs (or no FE with his value hands).

 

[UkoChebuko]

I made a mistake. 9 combos for AKo in the second pic (NAI 3bet). 3% difference, a huge one. Very sorry for the "misinformation". I hope your all will forgive me...For the bad English as well...

 

[UkoChebuko]

Simply , if you don't want to do that (most likely ), you can see on how many flops you can call vs small bet profitable (float, "light" call or "trap"). You can use bluffs with outs. You can check back, you can fold pretty easy, if your equity obv is not enough vs his entire range. You can find very easy profitable call, raise, bet, check or fold. With 88 you just don't know what to do. In each scenario, only with set everyone knows what to do. You will make mistakes, everyone will. Even if 88 have 3% more equity, KQs is way better for call.

I hope you understand now.

 

[LevySystem]

"Blind" means "very poor playability". And this playability matters even with SPR = ~1. I was accused of misinformation, spam. I will try to explain better. This situations are very common in the tournaments. But the cash game players don't have a good experience with this SPR. That's why some regs exploit that (short stack strategy for the cash games)

How do you have playability with a SPR of 1 postflop when u are 30ish bb deep in a game Format were you want to maximize value by playing for maximum stakes?

The reason you have playability in tournaments does not come from some magical "good experience" but simply the fact that in the later stages of the tournament most players will have short stacks. Wich then you have to adapt by implementing small betsizes to justify the high aggresion needed to steal as much chips as possible.

The higher your stack the higher your playability postflop. IP>OOP in terms of playability. So the max EV line when playing with a third of your stack should most likely be jamming, since IP can easily justify seeing a flop here.

Look at this ranges. Only for example.

AI 3bet

As you can see, there are a different combos for each hand. Because you will see some hands more often ( AI 3bet). 88 have a lot more equity than KQs. This is only an example. To show you the difference.

NAI 3bet

Where do you take these Ranges from?

The allin one kind of makes sense to me, alltough I would ad more suited broadways since in V shoes we are jamimg vs a BU open wich should be fairly wide.

What about the second range? It seems plugged some random combos in there just to make a point. Correct me if I'm wrong bu are you really suggesting that V would try and take JJ-88 postflop? Why not 77? (seven allways come you know) this range seems completely random to me.

Please explain

 

[UkoChebuko]

 

[LevySystem]

Very constructive, good point!

If you talk nonsense you will get called out for it. Either stop posting for the sake of posting something or live with it.

Explain your point and don't get defensive like this little pub.

But we both know you can't, not in English nor in your language, because your bluff got called.

 

[ventrolloquist]

Simply , if you don't want to do that (most likely ), you can see on how many flops you can call vs small bet profitable (float, "light" call or "trap"). You can use bluffs with outs. You can check back, you can fold pretty easy, if your equity obv is not enough vs his entire range. You can find very easy profitable call, raise, bet, check or fold. With 88 you just don't know what to do. In each scenario, only with set everyone knows what to do. You will make mistakes, everyone will. Even if 88 have 3% more equity, KQs is way better for call.

I hope you understand now.

Thanks for explaining, really appreciate this

 

[UkoChebuko]

Listen, troll, I said "only for example". And yes, this situation is very common in the tournaments. Yes, different size for OR, different stack for resteal, but very similar situation. In the tournaments, where you don't have any experience (as you said), but you know everything, you will crush MTT with your knowledge (as you said), even if you play only NL2 by now.
I do what I can. My native language is different, I am not a coach, but I tried to help, to explain. You just want to argue.
This guy, Collin Moshman, he is a coach, he have knowledge, he can explain well. Ask him...Why KQ is better for call vs NAI 3bet, even if KQs have less equity than 88.
Your argument for "misinformation" is just silly. The people can do whatever they want. They also can use the "ignore list".

I agree that the more important street here is pre-flop. If the effective stack is 35bb, a 3-bet to 12bb from Villain commits us and I’d either shove or fold pre. This is particularly true with a less playable hand like 88 compared to one like KQs where taking a flop would be more reasonable.

Well, I can't see something different in his post. Argue with him. With the same tone. And sarcasm...

 

[UkoChebuko]

I will " explain more understandable" for you. Because I am sure you can't see clearly with those red eyes.
You said, my posts are "only misinformation", " garbage", spam. It is a waste of time for the other people to read my posts. Including the posts in this topic.
Collin Moshman have exactly the same opinion , like mine. He said "playable" as well. Yes, for SPR 1.
You are accusing Collin Moshman as well. For "misinformation". With your "troll activity". I know it is fun to you to do that. But if you continue, the mods will notice that. And I think they know what damage for the community can achieve a single troll. GL...With your new entertainment.