NL $100, AA on a paired board with small action.

[F Paulsson]

Why is a T the most probable hand for one of them to have? I could easily imagine this being the case:

Tenbob bets $10 on the flop.
Guy one: "I'll float my flushdraw/overcards/small PP and see what develops. If there are more raises, I'm done with the hand."
Guy two: "I'm getting good odds for my flushdraw. I'm definitely peeling."

Tenbob checks the turn.
Guy one: "Aha, he has AK/AQ. I wonder what the other guy has. Let's see if I can take it down with a small bet."
Guy two: "Still excellent price for my flushdraw. I hope tenbob doesn't checkraise."

I realize that a ten is a likely holding - but is it so likely as to not even take the $10 price here and see what happens on the river?

 

[zachvac]

Well this isn't really accurate since we're not always behind here, and don't need that 22:1 (assuming 2 outs).

I do still agree that a fold is probably best here, but not by the logic that we're always behind.

I said we have worse than 7:1 to IMPROVE. The point is the heavy majority of the time we will be facing a river bet with our current hand, just a single overpair. I assume we're not leading out on a non-A river, and if we fold to a bet we did actually need 7:1 odds. If we're calling a river bet we're getting horrible reverse implied odds because a better hand bets and worse hand probably checks extremely happy that we checked and they can now see a showdown with their QQ or KK.

So we either:
- really do need 7:1 if we're folding to a river bet unimproved
- giving horrible reverse implied odds because we have no idea if we're ahead or not but our opponent likely does. The only thing that would help us is if we plan to call the river bet and think that a lot of non-trip hands would bluff to our check thinking that if we did have the T we would have led out. The problem is there are still 2 others in the hand, and unless neither of them have us beat our call costs us money.

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Why is a T the most probable hand for one of them to have? I could easily imagine this being the case:

Tenbob bets $10 on the flop.
Guy one: "I'll float my flushdraw/overcards/small PP and see what develops. If there are more raises, I'm done with the hand."
Guy two: "I'm getting good odds for my flushdraw. I'm definitely peeling."

Tenbob checks the turn.
Guy one: "Aha, he has AK/AQ. I wonder what the other guy has. Let's see if I can take it down with a small bet."
Guy two: "Still excellent price for my flushdraw. I hope tenbob doesn't checkraise."

I realize that a ten is a likely holding - but is it so likely as to not even take the $10 price here and see what happens on the river?

My thoughts exactly.

 

[tenbob]

Why is a T the most probable hand for one of them to have? I could easily imagine this being the case:

Tenbob bets $10 on the flop.
Guy one: "I'll float my flushdraw/overcards/small PP and see what develops. If there are more raises, I'm done with the hand."
Guy two: "I'have 22, oh slowplay time"

Tenbob checks the turn.
Guy one: "Aha, he has AK/AQ. I wonder what the other guy has. Let's see if I can take it down with a small bet."
Guy two: "Nice one, donk has a 10 or something, ill milk this and spring on the river, gotta keep tenbob in, not going to raise just yet."

I realize that a ten is a likely holding - but is it so likely as to not even take the $10 price here and see what happens on the river?

FYP

 

[Bentheman87]

My thoughts exactly as well Paulson.

 

[zachvac]

Why is a T the most probable hand for one of them to have? I could easily imagine this being the case:

Tenbob bets $10 on the flop.
Guy one: "I'll float my flushdraw/overcards/small PP and see what develops. If there are more raises, I'm done with the hand."
Guy two: "I'm getting good odds for my flushdraw. I'm definitely peeling."

Tenbob checks the turn.
Guy one: "Aha, he has AK/AQ. I wonder what the other guy has. Let's see if I can take it down with a small bet."
Guy two: "Still excellent price for my flushdraw. I hope tenbob doesn't checkraise."

I realize that a ten is a likely holding - but is it so likely as to not even take the $10 price here and see what happens on the river?

ok fair enough, now the river card comes anything but an A and villain (either one) bets $45 into the $76 pot (could even be bigger). What's your action? Was it worth the $10 now?

 

[tenbob]

ok fair enough, now the river card comes anything but an A and villain (either one) bets $45 into the $76 pot (could even be bigger). What's your action? Was it worth the $10 now?

Even if he bets $20, our $10 turn call has cost us $30, because calling the turn means calling the river. I dont see what the big difficulty is with this, putting anymore than $40 by the time we reach showdown is a mistake unless we improve or unless we have re-draws (2 outer lolz). We need to avoid spewing implied odds. I dont think i can reach showdown very often this cheaply.

 

[zachvac]

Even if he bets $20, our $10 turn call has cost us $30, because calling the turn means calling the river. I dont see what the big difficulty is with this, putting anymore than $40 by the time we reach showdown is a mistake unless we improve or unless we have re-draws (2 outer lolz). We need to avoid spewing implied odds. I dont think i can reach showdown very often this cheaply.

Right, basically if we intend to fold then we needed 7:1 to hit our 2-outer and if we intend to call we're not really getting 7:1 because of future betting that we're going to call. So either way the 7:1 argument really doesn't work here.

 

[Four Dogs]

I think this was a bad fold TB. I'm not saying that it's not likely that one of these players flopped trips, but there is absolutely nothing about how the hand has played out to this point to leads me to believe it. Intlplaya is right, a CB was in order and would have told you everything you need to know. If either one of them has it, a CB probably would have induced raise, then you have a decision to make. I think FP's imagined dialogue is a likely one.

 

[Bentheman87]

"ok fair enough, now the river card comes anything but an A and villain (either one) bets $45 into the $76 pot (could even be bigger). What's your action? Was it worth the $10 now?"

Say they did have a small pair to medium pair and a flush draw (which I'd say is just as likely as being up against trips or a boat). If we call the $10 turn bet it will most likely get checked down on the river and we'd win a $80 pot. If one of them does have a 22 or trips, they'll make a big bet on the river and we'll be put to the test, but it'll be a lot easier to fold getting 2.7:1 opposed to 7:1. So yeah it would be worth the $10. The point is when we look at our pot odds of 7-1 on the turn, we can't only look at our odds of improving, we have to estimate the probability that we have the best hand. If we think there's a 12.5% chance or better that we have the best hand here, we should call, and I'd say we have at least a 50% chance of having the best hand.

 

[tenbob]

I think this was a bad fold TB. I'm not saying that it's not likely that one of these players flopped trips, but there is absolutely nothing about how the hand has played out to this point to leads me to believe it. Intlplaya is right, a CB was in order and would have told you everything you need to know. If either one of them has it, a CB probably would have induced raise, then you have a decision to make. I think FP's imagined dialogue is a likely one.

The pot was $16, I did c-bet, i led out for $10, probably a little on the low side, but $15 was a little excessive imo. $12 would likely be the ideal. If I had bet $15 then the pot would have gotten way too bloated to be looking at a fold at any stage of the hand,unless i get bet at HUGE. So what more information do i get from betting $5 more on the flop ? I still get called by the same hand ranges.

 

[tenbob]

"ok fair enough, now the river card comes anything but an A and villain (either one) bets $45 into the $76 pot (could even be bigger). What's your action? Was it worth the $10 now?"

Say they did have a small pair to medium pair and a flush draw (which I'd say is just as likely as being up against trips or a boat). If we call the $10 turn bet it will most likely get checked down on the river and we'd win a $80 pot. If one of them does have a 22 or trips, they'll make a big bet on the river and we'll be put to the test, but it'll be a lot easier to fold getting 2.7:1 opposed to 7:1. So yeah it would be worth the $10. The point is when we look at our pot odds of 7-1 on the turn, we can't only look at our odds of improving, we have to estimate the probability that we have the best hand. If we think there's a 12.5% chance or better that we have the best hand here, we should call, and I'd say we have at least a 50% chance of having the best hand.

Ok good point. Your mixing up a deep stack no limit game with a limit holdem concept though. In a limit game its 7/1 we have the best hand and we can reach showdown for a small number of bets. We can't do this even against a bluff here, a bluff will fire again on the river, and usually for much much more. Oh and someone wont usually put you to the "test with 22" on the river, you can expect to be value bet for $30-$40

 

[F Paulsson]

calling the turn means calling the river

I don't think this is true at all.

ok fair enough, now the river card comes anything but an A and villain (either one) bets $45 into the $76 pot (could even be bigger). What's your action? Was it worth the $10 now?

Your argument is analogous to me saying "so you fold the turn and then both check behind missed flush draws on the river. How do you feel now?"

It's dependent on one of them betting big on the river, which is something they'll do when they have a big hand - or are bluffing. $10 in a 7:1 pot to sometimes - it only needs to be 13% of the time - watch both of them check behind on the river and take down the pot.

We can fold to a bet on the river. But we're not on the river yet, and the idea that we're committed to calling a bet on the river is just wrong. If this was a heads-up pot, we might be in dangerous waters for playing in an exploitable fashion, but it isn't, and in a 3-way pot all three players have two others to worry about. We've given no indication of being willing to fold if we call the turn - and neither has either of the other two - so it's going to be hard for one of the other two players to dare take a stab at the pot with a large bet.

And if bluffs are unlikely on the river, this is a trivially easy call on the turn. IMO.

 

[tenbob]

And if bluffs are unlikely on the river, this is a trivially easy call on the turn. IMO.

So whats the difference in calling a $10 bet and folding to a $30 bet on the river FP ? Folding to a $40 bet is trivial and easy, its the situations where we face 10-30 size bets that calling the turn means calling the river. We are in the exact same situation again. Id like you to expand a little on the the last point plz.

 

[Four Dogs]

The pot was $16, I did c-bet, i led out for $10, probably a little on the low side, but $15 was a little excessive imo. $12 would likely be the ideal. If I had bet $15 then the pot would have gotten way too bloated to be looking at a fold at any stage of the hand,unless i get bet at HUGE. So what more information do i get from betting $5 more on the flop ? I still get called by the same hand ranges.

And so you did. I beg your forgiveness sir; and the bet was just fine. I don't think trip Tens slow plays this. I don't fire another round on the turn, but I need to see how the hand plays out on the river before I'm convinced.

 

[Bentheman87]

"So whats the difference in calling a $10 bet and folding to a $30 bet on the river FP ? Folding to a $40 bet is trivial and easy, its the situations where we face 10-30 size bets that calling the turn means calling the river. We are in the exact same situation again. Id like you to expand a little on the the last point plz."

The point is when they make a tiny $10 bet on the turn it doesn't necessarily mean great strength, it's tiny compared to the size of the pot and it in no way makes it so we have to call on the river. If they bet like $40 on the river then we can consider folding. If they bet pot on the turn then it's a totally different storry. If you think you're ahead you can call, but then you should be prepared to call another big bet on the river, because you've already decided you have the best hand by calling such a huge bet on the turn. It would be stupid to call a pot sized bet on the turn, and then folding to another big bet on the river, I think that's what you are saying right Tenbob?

 

[F Paulsson]

So whats the difference in calling a $10 bet and folding to a $30 bet on the river FP ? Folding to a $40 bet is trivial and easy, its the situations where we face 10-30 size bets that calling the turn means calling the river. We are in the exact same situation again. Id like you to expand a little on the the last point plz.

The difference is in the usual patterns of betting on the river. For example, if the second player has a small/medium PP he might bet the turn to protect his hand against overcards (especially if he thinks you have AK). But on the river there's nothing left for him to protect. I certainly think it would be a mistake to bet $30 on the river for the second player with a medium PP, unimproved. From his point of view, neither of his opponents seem to be going anywhere.

Much the same can be said about the third player, although with him, it's trickier. If you both check, he might read it as two players who tried to take a stab and missed, and then he bets his missed flush draw in the hopes that you'll both fold. But this, too, requires him not to be paranoid about you - tenbob - slowplaying a monster. Much the same way that you put him on a full house, he might think the same thing.

Basically, I expect that they will only bet trips and up, or complete bluffs on the river. I don't think they will bet weak hands like ace-high or small pairs. And if we believe that they're unlikely to put their stack on the line in a 3-way pot with suspicious action with air, then we find that the large majority of a time that they bet the river, they have a hand that crushes ours.

Basically, we call the turn in the hopes of a "free" showdown, and that only needs to happen 13% of the time for us to show a profit. As a bonus, we'll hit the motherload and peel an ace an extra 4% of the time (and those 4% are going to be very, very profitable the times we're up against trips or a full house, so don't discard these as negligble - because while the probability is almost negligible, the added EV is definitely not).

Their ranges are still fairly wide on the turn. They will be narrowed considerably on the river.

 

[tenbob]

"So whats the difference in calling a $10 bet and folding to a $30 bet on the river FP ? Folding to a $40 bet is trivial and easy, its the situations where we face 10-30 size bets that calling the turn means calling the river. We are in the exact same situation again. Id like you to expand a little on the the last point plz."

The point is when they make a tiny $10 bet on the turn it doesn't necessarily mean great strength, it's tiny compared to the size of the pot and it in no way makes it so we have to call on the river. If they bet like $40 on the river then we can consider folding. If they bet pot on the turn then it's a totally different storry. If you think you're ahead you can call, but then you should be prepared to call another big bet on the river, because you've already decided you have the best hand by calling such a huge bet on the turn. It would be stupid to call a pot sized bet on the turn, and then folding to another big bet on the river, I think that's what you are saying right Tenbob?

Ever hear the poker term weak=stong, strong=weak ? His turn bet is either a value bet, a bluff or a block bet. Against 1 player i never fold here, against 2 in this situation i feel that i have to. What im essentially saying here is that if i call a turn bet here, then the pot is bigger, and if one of the villians bets $30 im in the exact position that i was in on the turn. Ive gotten no information, im calling down light. The $10 call has become larger.

 

[Bentheman87]

Let's use the probability that half the time they'll have trips/boat and half the time they'll have pairs or missed flushes or high cards. And we'll assume when they have trips/boats you'll call a $35 bet on the river, and when they have missed flushes or medium/small pairs they'll check it down and won't bluff (I honestly don't think either of them will have the courage to bluff into two opponents who've called down to the river).

50% of the time you'll put in $10 and win $70 which is +$35. 50% of the time you'll put in $10 + $35 and lose $45 which is -$22.5. So calling on the turn has +$12.5 EV.

 

[Tygran]

Let's use the probability that half the time they'll have trips/boat and half the time they'll have pairs or missed flushes or high cards. And we'll assume when they have trips/boats you'll call a $35 bet on the river, and when they have missed flushes or medium/small pairs they'll check it down and won't bluff (I honestly don't think either of them will have the courage to bluff into two opponents who've called down to the river).

50% of the time you'll put in $10 and win $70 which is +$35. 50% of the time you'll put in $10 + $35 and lose $45 which is -$22.5. So calling on the turn has +$12.5 EV.

It's not quite that simple but I think you have the right idea. You aren't considering river action here. If it were $10 for a guaranteed showdown then yeah I think all of us call all day long. I'm pretty sure we will win more than once every eight cracks at this. But that isn't the case.

I also think 50% is too much but we can quibble on this all day. I don't think anyone in this thread will disagree that there is indeed a significant chance that we do indeed have the best hand but there is a significant and I think I would argue at these limits greater chance at least one of them will have us beat. I seriously doubt they both have us beat. I would have a very hard time at putting our odds of having the best hand right now at any less that 25%. It's probably higher. So...

Case 1A: We are up against TJ/77/22 and AsQs. We call and a blank falls. I agree with paulson and others...we are by no means obligated to call a river bet because we called a turn bet. We check..the TJ will bet confident of having best hand since flush was avoided, flush draw goes away. Do we call this? Probably not because I doubt he's going to bet very small. If he does bet small I think we have to look him up. Why? Because the odds he has 88/99/JJ/QQ/A7 are too high. We lose the $10 bet + whatever he bet on the river (say $20-$40). You can't tell me that with this action a JJ/QQ isn't going to have reason to think they have the best hand.

Case 1B: Up against the same two hands but a spade falls.. Well in this case we will probably see a bet and a raise and possibly a reraise. Very easy fold, river costs us nothing.

Case 2A: We are up against some combination of UI pp's and flush draws. A non spade falls that doesn't set anybody, we probably just see a check down and we win the pot.

Case 2B: Same as above except either a spade falls or someone makes a miracle boat (or both). We check and fold to the action that ensues.

Case 3: An Ace falls. If we are up against any good hands T/boat/or made flush.. we could stack one OR BOTH of them. Small chance but the reward is so huge it has to be considered.



So..all this has been said in one way or another already. I think the pot odds + the significant possibility we are actually ahead here make this call worth it. Saying if we call this we are obligated to call a river bet is not true imo. If I call this and a blank comes on the turn AND one of them bets small yes I will feel obligated to call. If one of them bets and another raises or one bets huge and another folds then you can go ahead and muck it and it only costs $10. If you spike the ace you could win a gigantic pot.


Personally (been thinking about this one a bunch since yesterday) I'm wondering if you should have checked the turn. Checking the turn + the action that followed gave you no useful information and looks a whole lot like you have AK encouraging lesser hands to act with more confidence.



I still don't mind the fold but I like it less as I think about it more. I think I dislike the turn check more... A JJ/QQ type hand is really encouraged by the check and would be extremely cautious with another bet. OTOH someone slowplaying the T or boat would want us to bet it so maybe checking is best. If we bet out though and are just flat called twice again we could check fold the river cheaper than calling $10 + calling the river bet of one of these hands and that wouldn't encourage the JJ/QQ types to bet out on the turn thinking you have AK I guess is my thinking.

I think I'm trying to convince myself that calling is the right move as well here. I'm really on the fence on this one.

/wow this post ended up long

 

[F Paulsson]

Case 3: An Ace falls. If we are up against any good hands T/boat/or made flush.. we could stack one OR BOTH of them. Small chance but the reward is so huge it has to be considered.

An addendum to this:

If I somehow knew that one guy had JTs and the other guy had 22, there's no way I'm folding the turn.

 

[Tygran]

An addendum to this:

If I somehow knew that one guy had JTs and the other guy had 22, there's no way I'm folding the turn.

Hrm.... I failed to take one piece of information into account. I think I would agree if both are deepstacked but I didn't take this into account.

zo1216: $85 before the hand started.

So one of the two villains isn't deep stacked. If for example zo has a boat and teach has a draw, we stand to gain much less in the event the draw misses and we hit.

I like folding a bit more now. But a call could be +EV depending on what number you decide your chance of AA being best currently are.



So Tenbob, what happened?

 

[F Paulsson]

Even with his shorter stack, we still have enough to warrant a call in the case that both of them have monsters. Of course, we have no way of knowing - I'm just making a general statement on implied odds and how much value (more than $10 in this case) that they bring.

 

[alan1983]

I think you couldve gotten a cheap showdown, so id probably call.

His turn ebt was a bit on the low side, So if one of them has a ten, its unlikely he has the ace kicker, and with two other callers, i dont think anyone wants to make the pot huge, at least one can assume. Unless someone has a full already, the river is quite likely to end up cheap.

 

[CubanaD64]

So when do we get to see showdown?