This is a discussion on MDF on small river bet within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; pokerrr2 app (basically runs as a live game)
0.25$/0.5$/1$ mandatory straddle 250$ CAP
HJ opens to 3$ (eff. 175$)
Villain in CO 3Bets to 9$ (eff. 248)
Other then obvious mistake of not 3Betting pf and take agg in hand, what do you think Villain is representing here with this sizing, JJ+, or he completes the straight on the river and was semibluffing on the turn with Ax when he picked up straight gutshot. Does TT fall into call when we have such a good pot odds?
Ok preflop. I do not know your group of players or the room where you play, but you are at a long table. Reason why the ranges of the opponents tend to get smaller. Here the most aggressive players will try to knock you down with reasonable hands. The V should not 3-bet with pockets less than 99 at a long table. Because just being aggressive doesn't mean he's spewy, when he has no good reason to get involved in this boat.
The 2/3 flop bet is a bit polarizing for this dry texture, however the call gets thinner when we have another player to speak.
On the turn, the V bet becomes too big in size and according to you, the V is aggressive enough to continue bluffing.
For your call turn to be profitable, your opponent must have at least all combinations: AK in his bluff range.
On the river many of their V values have been neutralized because now, any ace beats them. So at that point the bluffs of V has become values against our range. And on the other hand, the overpairs that CO had now represent his bluffs for us (except AA).
Therefore, if we reduce the range V: JJ-KK: 18c + AKo / s: 16c + AA: 6c + 99: 3c = 43 combos.
Fold equity: 0 / 43c: 0%
It turns out that if we bluff the river, we need V to fold 30% of the time, but this is very difficult when we estimate that no combo will fold here.
The reason is that any overpair should not bet on this board and if he does, he will never fold. Because we have a clear disadvantage in our range.
We have not shown any aggression in postflop, therefore we do not represent sets and we do not represent top hands. Therefore we have a standard fold in the river.
A lot in this hand is going to depend on how well your description of villain is. If they really are a good agg reg then I think the more wide their range could be. If they can be wider here in their 3 bets then 4 betting is probably better but a good player with a big pair is not going to 5 bet you but just call you and then you are out of position in a bloated pot with a hand that is vulnerable. This is not a fun spot no matter how you play it with 1010 when you are up against a good player that has position on you. If you have stats they 3 bet wide then you could 4 bet or you could play the hand as a set mining hand. Personally I probably lean towards playing it as a set mine hand but that may not be correct, Im just giving my opinion and my taste there.
As played on the flop you could be up against a bigger pair or something wider but being out of position here I would rather call then raise. If I was in position I think I like raising for some equity denial plus the faster I find out Im up against it possibly the less money I lose. However here being out of position I would just call as you did.
Turn as played does connect the board but I am not worried about 67 or A2. This bet is large though at roughly 3/4ths pot so I would think this is a little more bluffy but at the same time our hand is probably looks like big Ax or some pocket pair so if villain sees that and has QQ they know they can bet large here and get a lot of calls. Im torn here but I think depending on how good I think villain is I fold here (which is tight weak I know) but I also know I have a hand that can stand massive pressure and I figure to face massive pressure on the river and the river could easily be an overcard. I would never raise here since if I was calling I would mostly bluff catch the river (although Ive mentioned before I hate bluff catching multiple streets since its just a guessing game at that point) so Im either calling or folding with my preference being a fold and waiting to play a hand like this against villain while in position (should be somewhat often as they are 2 to our right).
As played on river, its a horrible card as all Ax got there. Check is correct on your part imo and they make a bet that screams value. They seem to want us to call here so I would fold. Could be a post oak bluff but if it is, then it is. I feel like if we call here we lose more often than we win and even with pot odds I dont think we win enough of the time.
Anytime you have 1010 or JJ type hands out of position against a 3 bettor it will be tough, especially if you believe that player to be good. Imo I dont think a 4 bet solves this as villain will not fold to a 4 bet often if they are really good (depends on your sizing and how villain sees you). Its really a bluff catcher hand you have and you would have to bluff catch for 3 streets which is usually not profitable. Imo you have to fold somewhere along the line here and flop is too soon so it has to be turn or river. This hand would be really interesting and tougher if the river was a 8 instead of a 2.
MDF is really only important if you suspect that villain is exploiting you by over-bluffing. To make villain indifferent between checking and betting the river for this sizing you'll need to defend (pot/(pot + bet)) = about 75% of your range.
MDF is a different concept from pot odds because with pot odds you make a decision based solely on the equity of your hand vs villains range, and the size of the bet proportional to the pot. With MDF the goal is to make villain indifferent between checking and bluffing resulting in an unexploitable river call strategy.
If I recall correctly, the player pool you play in was rather soft so I don't think you'll need to concern yourself too much with MDF (unless you face a river bet against a very good reg) and just focus on making correct exploitative plays. Often this means (slightly) over-folding the river, but I don't really know anything about this player specifically.
For the record, against a cold 3-bet, folding TT OOP is acceptable or even good. If you're gonna play it just 4-bet, but we already agree on that.
I actually prefer to just fold and not even get involved in this sticky spot. 4-betting TT generally get better hands to call or 5-bet and worse hands to fold. So I dont think, 4-betting is a tremendously profitable option, and I dont think, calling is profitable either. We are not closing action, and if HJ come over the top with a 4-bet, we will need to fold. And even when that does not happen, we are going to be out of position against one or more commonly two opponents with a hand, which is extremely difficult to play, unless we flop a set. And if we are basically setmining, is TT really all that different from 22?
We flop an overpair, so other than hitting a set, this was pretty much the best flop, we could hope for. And yet our hand is still only a bluff catcher. If CO has JJ+ or a set, we are still drawing to two outs, and if he is bluffing, he typically has at least 25% equity. So sometimes he will either get there or be able to use a scary card to get us off. Like he has KQs, and an ace hits. So I kind of hate life already, and when he bet so large into two opponents, I am close to just letting it go right now. But then of course I should just have let it go preflop, which I would.
Fairly safe card, and AX did pick up a gutshot, so he might continue bluffing with that. But you are facing another very large bet setting it up for a river jam, so you are definitely putting your stack at risk, if you continue.
Now AX got there, which basically mean, all his bluffs got there, because what else is he taking as a bluff for that large sizing on the turn? If he cant have hands like KQ or KJ, because he would just give up with those on the flop or turn, then there is basically nothing left in his range, which you still beat, so you definitely cant call, even though you are getting good odds.
You could actually consider jamming and turning your hand into a bluff trying to get him to fold JJ-KK. But the issue is, how can you actually have an A or a 6, that gets here? Its kind of difficult to say the least, so if he can hand read, he might sniff that out. Or he might have the A himself obviously. So on balance I probably fold.
For me the main point in this hand is actually preflop. I just dont think, its profitable to put yourself into this bluff catching situation out of position in a 3-bet pot. Its one thing defending TT to a 3-bet after open raising. But here you were not yet involved and not closing action, and then you can just get out of the way and wait for the button to come to you in the next hand.