Losing with 18 outs?

T

thomasguy3419

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On this flop I had 18 outs, 3 aces and 3 queens for top pair, 9 spades for flush and 3 fours for straight (not including the 4 of spades) so I went all in and lost. Was this wrong to go all in? How many outs do I need to risk my entire stack?

pokerstars Zoom Hand #175556511616: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05) - 2017/09/12 14:28:31 ET
Table 'Donati' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ($5.51 in chips)
Seat 2: balint0211 ($5 in chips)
Seat 3: LetsGrindIt ($5.60 in chips)
Seat 4: Fenix237 ($11.52 in chips)
Seat 5: MARIAGABIPRO ($4.80 in chips)
Seat 6: LowG124 ($5.12 in chips)
balint0211: posts small blind $0.02
LetsGrindIt: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [As Qs]
Fenix237: folds
MARIAGABIPRO: raises $0.10 to $0.15
LowG124: folds
Hero: raises $0.35 to $0.50
balint0211: folds
LetsGrindIt: folds
MARIAGABIPRO: calls $0.35
*** FLOP *** [2s 5h 3s]
MARIAGABIPRO: checks
Hero: bets $0.52
MARIAGABIPRO: raises $0.98 to $1.50
Hero: raises $3.51 to $5.01 and is all-in
MARIAGABIPRO: calls $2.80 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($0.71) returned to Hero
*** TURN *** [2s 5h 3s] [9c]
*** RIVER *** [2s 5h 3s 9c] [3h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MARIAGABIPRO: shows [6c 4c] (a straight, Deuce to Six)
Hero: shows [As Qs] (a pair of Threes)
MARIAGABIPRO collected $9.27 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $9.67 | Rake $0.40
Board [2s 5h 3s 9c 3h]
Seat 1: Hero (button) showed [As Qs] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 2: balint0211 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: LetsGrindIt (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Fenix237 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: MARIAGABIPRO showed [6c 4c] and won ($9.27) with a straight, Deuce to Six
Seat 6: LowG124 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
 
B

braveslice

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18 x 4 = 72%

Without bothering to calculate pot odds, I would assume in 3bet pot 10 outs is enough 100bb deep.
 
N

Napkins420

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Shit, I had an open ended straight flush draw with 2 overs on the flop yesterday and bricked turn and River like Shaq on free throws, but I'll get 3 outered or runner runners like it's the norm lol, sick game we play
 
E

eyeluvpoker

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I have lost too many pots with 15+ outs. I always try to keep the pot small until I have the goods. However, I usually call a raise with those 15+ out hands and lose most of them! LOL
 
viniciusamrs

viniciusamrs

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you are unluck as me. A lot of times i had a percentage more than 80 % in turn/river and i can lose... This shi... happens, sometimes i thought about the pokerstars has an algoritm which rewards those who spent more money in deposited
 
ScottieDuncan

ScottieDuncan

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That's my luck. 10 should be enough.
 
MattRyder

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Definitely hard to get away from that hand. Against his actual cards you had a 61.7% chance of winning pre-flop, 36.6% chance of winning with that flop, and a 20.45% chance of winning with that turn. Apparently his bluff/semi-bluff pre-flop turned into a nightmare for you post-flop. Most guys who overplay that sort of hand end up losing, unless they can successfully continue the bluff. This was the exception.
 
T

Two6JJ

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Too many outs, sometimes you just don't get there grab another buy in and carry on.
 
A

Aca0012

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Always pay attention to all possible combinations. But after some time you really need some luck!
 
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Sidetracked

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All your outs weren't good, so when calculating you need to discount some.

14 outs on the flop is about 50%, so any more than that and get the $ in.
 
Keith_MM

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you didn't have 18 clean outs on the flop , you had 18 dirty outs, you had 9 clean outs and a runner runner 4 6 for a chop
 
Peppinotom

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How many outs are possible? how many outs can the other one have? And don't forget about the hidden outcomes. At the end of the day we will call it variance, that's why I don't like to go all in that often anymore. I lead 75% of my hands to the turn and get beaten on the river. All in is more like flipping a coin twice, and what might be the probability of that? Or the probability of your hand getting worse? Well anyway, I agreee with earlier posts, keep the pot small, until you need it big. :icon_bigs
 
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clayvision

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Youre asking the wrong question, youre asking if you had enough outs, you should be asking if you have enough equity to shove and what fold equity can you expect from your opponents
 
ByronP

ByronP

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Too many outs, you hear it all the time. no one complains when they hit.
 
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braveslice

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14 outs on the flop is about 50%, so any more than that and get the $ in.

Careful here, you go with pot odds, not by 50% rule which is valid only pre flop. Not that it makes usually a big difference in practice, but sometimes it do.
 
V

Vitor Barbosa

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So unlucky, in PS is no way to win with less than 95%, always u r with 90%, lose in the river
 
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DuduGrando

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As long as there is a 100% chance of winning you will always have the opportunity to lose, and losing hands that we are favorites happens to me, happened to you, anyway happens to everyone who plays the game
 
Kurtimus

Kurtimus

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Okay so you're risking 2.80 to win a pot of about 3.60 with that shove. We can't really assume our A or Q will be good as a single pair if we get called here, so we probably have closer to 36% up to like 48% equity if our strait ends up being good. I think your shove is okay, pretty bad luck he flopped the nuts.
 
Peppinotom

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It happens all the time all the week. everybody gets hisone and only card to switch the advantage to his favour. Just a minute ago a total fish went all in with everything, 57o, I called him wit 4d6d it shows up: 7d 8s 10d, turn 3h river 7h
Next hand I held pocket Jacks, set him all in and he called (for sure) with A7s
nothing shows up, weird cards like 6810 rainbow, but he gets his Ace on the river.
I could send you at least 120 hands, where that happened to me in this week. As well they find their straights and flushes or thrips 4 on ther river, to beat my pocket Aces or Kings. On the other hand, I NEVER get lucky with straight or flushdraws, but EVERYBODY who plays me, may beat me, and really, I lead 95% on the turn and loose on the river. Is it possible, that I'm put on a blackklist for double accounting or sth. like that and they give me loosing Monsterhands on purpose?
 
Keith_MM

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why would you want to stack off with 64s? You're justas big a fish as him .
 
P

ph_il

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you didn't have 18 clean outs on the flop , you had 18 dirty outs, you had 9 clean outs and a runner runner 4 6 for a chop
This.

-Any 4 that isn't 4s gives 6X a better straight.
-Any A gives 4X a straight.
-Q does give you TP/TK with flush draw, but you're still behind 46s, A4s, and sets.
-Any spade gives you nut flush.

So, you're really looking at 9 outs to give you the best hand if your opponent has out flopped you. Best case scenario is they're drawing to a weaker flush.
 
T

thomasguy3419

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This.

-Any 4 that isn't 4s gives 6X a better straight.
-Any A gives 4X a straight.
-Q does give you TP/TK with flush draw, but you're still behind 46s, A4s, and sets.
-Any spade gives you nut flush.

So, you're really looking at 9 outs to give you the best hand if your opponent has out flopped you. Best case scenario is they're drawing to a weaker flush.
Wish I realized this before lol. In other words the straight A-5 is no good unless you're the one holding 45.
 
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