LAG time, 10 9s in a raised pot, nl $100

tenbob

tenbob

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I playing 25/25/9 and have a massive table image playing fairly break even, is this always a set ? Villian is new and fairly nitty, hasnt stepped out of turn and over 30 hands hasnt played really apart from the blinds so our pt stats are pah.


pokerstars Game #14353348646: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/01/05 - 21:46:19 (ET)
Table 'Scutum' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: dbf0713 ($117 in chips)
Seat 2: squareview ($125 in chips)
Seat 3: tenbob ($106.55 in chips)
Seat 4: graceros ($82.65 in chips)
Seat 5: Pilk2 ($27.85 in chips)
Seat 6: GILESPI ($52.05 in chips)
Seat 7: punkmister ($59 in chips)
Seat 8: bigdizzo ($56.85 in chips)
punkmister: posts small blind $0.50
bigdizzo: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tenbob [Td 9d]
dbf0713: folds
squareview: folds
tenbob: raises $2 to $3
graceros: folds
pylkero joins the table at seat #9
Pilk2: folds
GILESPI: folds
punkmister: calls $2.50
bigdizzo: folds
*** FLOP *** [9c Ts 5d]
punkmister: checks
tenbob: bets $5
punkmister: raises $5 to $10
tenbob: raises $29 to $39
punkmister: raises $17 to $56 and is all-in
tenbob: calls $17 CRAI
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Villain's range here is basically set/overpair. It's unlikely a nit is taking AT this far, but possible he's called with a high pair to try and take advantage of your LAGtardedness. :)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.013% 63.01% 00.00% 18091 0.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 36.987% 36.99% 00.00% 10619 0.00 { 99+, 55 }

As played looks good.
 
W

WhatItDew

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I agree that you have to call here based on pot odds alone. If he were holding a PP, I would think that he would make a substantial raise preflop to try and take the pot down there. So i'm not too worried about a set here. I'm thinking he has A10 or K10 here and you are in good shape.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Villain's range here is basically set/overpair. It's unlikely a nit is taking AT this far, but possible he's called with a high pair to try and take advantage of your LAGtardedness. :)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.013% 63.01% 00.00% 18091 0.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 36.987% 36.99% 00.00% 10619 0.00 { 99+, 55 }

As played looks good.

<3 agreed. Villian had a set of 5's. I luck out on the river with a rivered T.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Yeah I like it. Agreed that it's either a set or an overpair which makes a call pretty easy, but I think we'll also occasionally see that small percentage of bluffs/semibluffs and odd AT type hands in there too.
 
Viktor Von Doom

Viktor Von Doom

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Like you said, it's usually a set. People at $100NL min-raise a lot with their sets. That he didn't know you'd been playing very LAG makes it that much more likely that he has a set as the hand progresses.

Not really a fan as played, though - when I don't have a read on someone I probably call the min-raise and re-evaluate my hand on the turn rather than get it all in there and here is why ...

1. If he's playing tight like you say then he's going to re-raise with QQ-AA and AK pre-flop.

2. He may just call with 99-JJ but you hold a 9 and a 10 so flopping those sets becomes even more unlikely.

3. He may hold something like 7-8 suited or JQ suited.

What else can he really have? I can't think of much. I think I play this one a bit slowly because you'll get stronger hands than 2 pair where you can get it all-in during the session.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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3. He may hold something like 7-8 suited or JQ suited.
For one, if you're including 78 and JQ, then you have to include JT and other similar hands, giving further reason to get it in and get full value.

Another thing, if you pin him on 78 or JQ, why do you want to smooth call?
 
Viktor Von Doom

Viktor Von Doom

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For one, if you're including 78 and JQ, then you have to include JT and other similar hands, giving further reason to get it in and get full value.

Another thing, if you pin him on 78 or JQ, why do you want to smooth call?
That's the range I am putting less emphasis on so I smooth call to see what happens on the turn. If a card comes that doesn't complete his draw we can bet out and his move here will probably be an all-in shove. That's when we can make our decision as to whether or not he has the set.

Make sense?

It's a way to keep the pot smaller as we try to figure out what his min-raise represents.

Anyways, part of my playing style is to play smallball poker until I have better reads on people. It might be too conservative to play this way. Not sure.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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I know exactly what you mean, I'm just trying to show why I think it's faulty thinking.

So let's say you call his ch-minraise, and the turn comes a rainbow deuce. Villain now shoves his remaining $36 in the pot. How did we gain additional information about his hand to give us reason to fold, ie what about his bet now tells us he has a set? He could still easily have JT+, could still be bluffing QJ, could be on a stone cold bluff...

The reasoning of calling, and autofolding to a scare card is faulty just like smooth calling with kings preflop and getting your money in postflop on a non-ace board. You have equity in the pot now that you have to protect and value you need to extract.

The only reason that I would be close to agreeing with for smooth calling is that if villain is on a bluff and by checking we can possibly induce a bluff-shove on the turn. There's even a problem with that though - there are plenty of semibluffs that make up that (small) part of his range, and we need to make him pay to draw.

There are more than enough Tx, overpairs, worse pairs (A9 etc), semibluffs and stone cold bluffs to make up for the times we're behind to an unlikely set here imo.
 
Viktor Von Doom

Viktor Von Doom

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I know exactly what you mean, I'm just trying to show why I think it's faulty thinking.

So let's say you call his ch-minraise, and the turn comes a rainbow deuce. Villain now shoves his remaining $36 in the pot. How did we gain additional information about his hand to give us reason to fold, ie what about his bet now tells us he has a set? He could still easily have JT+, could still be bluffing QJ, could be on a stone cold bluff...
"Villian is new and fairly nitty, hasnt stepped out of turn and over 30 hands hasnt played really apart from the blinds"

In my opinion.

I haven't played in 3 months. Maybe I'm way off base here.

Still, the fact he hasn't done a single thing in over 30 hands doesn't make me think he goes nuts with top pair or a semi-bluff here and I still think he'd have re-raised QQ, KK and AA pre-flop so going a little crazy with JJ is the only overpair scenario I see here.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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But that's the thing; he's not going 'nuts' here. He's just check-minraising. I've seen people do that with air trying to snap continuation bets off. I do agree that we shouldn't expect JT here every time, but it's definitely something to consider.

Even with nothing but JJ and sets, we still have %40 equity:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.398% 43.40% 00.00% 4726 0.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 56.602% 56.60% 00.00% 6164 0.00 { JJ-99, 55 }


That obv still isn't enough to shove, but just by adding AT in there we bump ourselves up to %60 equity. We don't even need to start thinking about JT or even 78 before we realize it's a +EV push.

I've been ranting again, but all I'm saying is that there are definitely enough non-set hands in his range for hero to shove profitably here.
 
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