KK - turn got ugly - now what?

F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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UTG+1 is 37/4/1.5
MP3 is 77/25/1
CO is 30/3/0.2

full tilt poker
Limit holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with k♦ k♠
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: 8♥ 7♦ j♣ (12SB, 6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Turn: 9♣ (10BB, 4 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP3 bets, CO calls, Hero...?

Any chance at all for me to continue here? Six people saw that flop, and only two folded when they saw it. What are the others liking?

What's my play here - bet, fold or raise? And most importantly why?
 
t1riel

t1riel

Legend
Well, MP3 already bet so actually your options are call, raise, or fold. It alos depends on how much he bet. My guess is one player has top pair and the other one either has the straight or chasing. I don't know about the remaining player, maybe low two pair. I think you should fold here. It very likely one of them has you beat and only a king can help your hand at this point. But, that's my opinion.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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t1riel said:
Well, MP3 already bet so actually your options are call, raise, or fold. It alos depends on how much he bet. My guess is one player has top pair and the other one either has the straight or chasing. I don't know about the remaining player, maybe low two pair. I think you should fold here. It very likely one of them has you beat and only a king can help your hand at this point. But, that's my opinion.

It's limit, so the betsize is static. And yeah, I meant call, raise or fold, thanks for catching that. :)
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

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More then likely someone called with a 10,9.. cause the notion that the 10,9 beats AA's.. people like to call raises and such with.
 
Osmann

Osmann

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t1riel said:
It alos depends on how much he bet.

It was a limit game so I guess he bet 2$

I'm pretty sure the best play is to fold, even though it hurts to lay down that good a hand. But afer a check-call on the flop and then a bet on the turn, in a limit game, my experience tells me that you're probably beat by a chaser. So unless you have a good read on the player, just lay it down and save yourself the money for another time. I'd say it's probably 4$ wasted if you call that bet(because you also have to call the river if you call the turn).
 
Tammy

Tammy

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F Paulsson said:
UTG+1 is 37/4/1.5
MP3 is 77/25/1
CO is 30/3/0.2
First, I have a question. What does this mean? ^^^

Ok. Here's my thoughts:

Pre-flop, players probably have mid-good starting hands. At this point KK is best, IMO, otherwise someone (most likely) would have re-raised. So preflop Hero is favorite.

Post-flop: UTG+1 has most likely hit mid or top pair, thus the bet. If it's top pair, I'm going to guess he has a weak kicker or else he would have re-raised (although why would he have called pre-flop raise w/ J-low kick?). Hmm. Probably mid-pair.

Turn: Here's where it gets interesting. With so many callers, one of them is sure to have a 10. I'm guessing MP3 has Q10. CO may be chasing flush, or perhaps hold K 10, but I doubt it. I would be tempted to raise, just to see where I stand (although I am surely beat); if I'm re-raised by MP3, then I would have to lay it down, because he almost surely has the straight, and there is no way to improve my hand.
 
twizzybop

twizzybop

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if I'm re-raised by MP3, then I would have to lay it down, because he almost surely has the straight, and there is no way to improve my hand.

What do you do if he turns into a calling station just to smooth play it from here on in?
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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With the limp-calling preflop I expect to see Tx here far too often to make it worth continuing after the turn once bet into. MP3 especially looks like he may well have strung along with a crap hand and hit his gutshot on the turn. CO worries me too as he's obviously a calling station from the stats, and is somewhat of an unknown entity, he could have a T but he's just as likely to have something silly like A-high.

Don't get married to good starting hands on horrible boards like that.
 
titans4ever

titans4ever

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I would fold.
The UTG+1 bet out flop and checked the turn. UTG+1 had top pair just to get scared of the 4 card straight on the turn.

MP3 calls the bet and the reraise on the flop and then fires out on the turn. My guess is that he hit his draw and is trying to sweeten the pot.

CO could have anything since all he has done is call everything so far.

Just to many cards out there that could stomp your overpair on the river. Save your money for another hand.
 
Tammy

Tammy

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I can see now that it would be a mistake to try to raise after the turn. Getting out now would be the best option to avoid losing anymore money on a losing hand. Like Dorkus said, don't get married to it.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
juiceeQ said:
First, I have a question. What does this mean? ^^^

Pokertracker stats.

VPIP% / PFR % / TAF

VPIP% = Voluntarily Put Money In Pot % (ie. % of times someone sees a flop when not the BB)
PFR% = Preflop Raise %
TAF = Total Aggression Factor ((Raise % + Bet %) / Call %). According to PT, less than 0.7 is passive, and more than 1.5 is aggressive, though this of course depends on the details of the games you're playing.
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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My feeling at the time, which echos what many of you have said, is that with 5 other people seeing the flop, and three of them (besides me) liking it enough to continue, someone had to have hit something when that 9 fell.

The pot was big, and I don't like folding in a big pot, but at this point, I just didn't feel that there was even a 10% chance of me taking this home. I folded.
 
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