I suspect this was horrible play, thoughts?

[myxiplx]

I've been at the table for about 6 hands, only two reads on players I've seen before:

OldWhine has always been in profit when I've seen them, generally tight but I've caught them out making moves with air in the past. Chaquito is a bit of a calling station who'll chase flush draws.




***** Hand History for Game 5471001549 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, November 30, 00:12:37 ET 2006
Table Table 125859 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: xxhillyxx ( $116.90 )
Seat 2: Chaquito ( $78.30 )
Seat 3: OldWhine ( $118.65 )
Seat 5: rlarson33 ( $109.62 )
Seat 6: larsenus ( $38.60 )
Seat 7: botchaCRO ( $119.83 )
Seat 8: unibroow ( $65.48 )
Seat 9: piloubox ( $55 )
Seat 4: myxiplx ( $99 )
Seat 10: Jay_ZZ ( $29 )
OldWhine posts small blind [$0.50].
myxiplx posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to myxiplx [ 9d 8s ] horrible, horrible cards and too early to know if a steal attempt will work here
rlarson33 folds
larsenus calls [$1]
botchaCRO calls [$1]
unibroow folds
piloubox calls [$1]
Jay_ZZ folds
xxhillyxx folds
Chaquito folds
OldWhine calls [$0.50]
myxiplx checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ac, 9h, 7d ] Ok, middle pair, but it's likely I'm beat, let's pray for two pair
OldWhine checks
myxiplx checks
larsenus checks
botchaCRO checks
piloubox checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8c ] bingo
OldWhine checks
myxiplx checks
larsenus bets [$5] Oh, oh, straight?
botchaCRO raises [$10] Oh &*%£&
piloubox folds
OldWhine folds
myxiplx calls [$10] Thought hard about this, but wasn't about to lay down 2 pair when either player could be holding a good A and trying to chase away str draw. Planning to check/call and hope to win without risking too much, or fold if another str card arrives.
larsenus calls [$5]
** Dealing River ** [ 9s ] eeep, either very good or very bad
myxiplx checks
larsenus checks
botchaCRO bets [$33.25] str or A9?


The turn is where my problems start, it feels like horrible, gambling play. With no reads I really don't know what I'm up against. There are definate str possibilities with this many limpers, Ax is possible too, A7-9 has me caned on the turn, A9 owns me on the river but I don't think folding is an option here.

Opinions greatfully received on this one.

Myx

 

[Bombjack]

You only lose to A9/AA and there are a hell of a lot of hands you beat - J-T being a prime candidate, pocket Sevens, pocket Eights, maybe even someone's playing AK-AT slowly. There's only one Nine left in the deck, so the chances it's in someone's hand along with one of the three remaining Aces are limited. Your hand is so strong you should pretty much forget about the chance someone has A9 and get as much money in as possible - go all-in.

 

[myxiplx]

lol, and same situation again a few minutes later... rlarson is solid, bets out with good hands, haven't seen them involved in a bad pot. piloubox is bad, really bad. Bets out pot on a complete bluff river after checking flop & min betting turn. Calls raises on 5 way limped board showing AAxx8 when they pair their 8 with 5 kicker on the river... unsurprisingly lost to the trip A's.

***** Hand History for Game 5471035804 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, November 30, 00:38:22 ET 2006
Table Table 125859 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: xxhillyxx ( $99.85 )
Seat 2: Chaquito ( $74.30 )
Seat 3: OldWhine ( $101.65 )
Seat 5: rlarson33 ( $72.84 )
Seat 6: larsenus ( $76.35 )
Seat 7: botchaCRO ( $45.33 )
Seat 9: piloubox ( $114.91 )
Seat 4: myxiplx ( $165.15 )
Seat 8: flo84 ( $97.50 )
Seat 10: CrossBank ( $100 )
myxiplx posts small blind [$0.50].
rlarson33 posts big blind [$1].
CrossBank posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to myxiplx [ Qd 9d ]
larsenus folds
botchaCRO folds
flo84 folds
piloubox calls [$1]
CrossBank checks
xxhillyxx folds
Chaquito folds
OldWhine folds
myxiplx calls [$0.50]
rlarson33 checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, Qc, Ah ] Another weak hand on flop
myxiplx checks
rlarson33 checks
piloubox checks
CrossBank checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9c ] Good, but not great, dangerous board
myxiplx bets [$2]
rlarson33 calls [$2]
piloubox raises [$6]
CrossBank folds
myxiplx calls [$4] Again worried about str, KT possibility here, planning to check/call this down
rlarson33 calls [$4]
** Dealing River ** [ 3h ]
myxiplx checks
rlarson33 checks
piloubox bets [$12]

 

[myxiplx]

Err... just posting this for fun... 2 pair city today lol.

Comments appreciated on both of the first two hands.

***** Hand History for Game 5471045357 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, November 30, 00:45:50 ET 2006
Table Table 125859 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: xxhillyxx ( $100 )
Seat 2: Chaquito ( $92.05 )
Seat 3: OldWhine ( $96.65 )
Seat 5: rlarson33 ( $61.84 )
Seat 6: larsenus ( $71.85 )
Seat 7: botchaCRO ( $56.33 )
Seat 9: piloubox ( $128.06 )
Seat 4: myxiplx ( $146.15 )
Seat 8: flo84 ( $96.20 )
Seat 10: CrossBank ( $99 )
piloubox posts small blind [$0.50].
CrossBank posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to myxiplx [ Ad Kc ]
xxhillyxx folds
Chaquito folds
OldWhine folds
myxiplx raises [$4]
rlarson33 calls [$4]
larsenus folds
botchaCRO raises [$7]
flo84 folds
piloubox folds
CrossBank folds
myxiplx calls [$3]
rlarson33 calls [$3]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ah, 3h, Kh ]
myxiplx checks
rlarson33 checks
botchaCRO bets [$21.40]
myxiplx calls [$21.40] flush danger, but again planning to check/call
rlarson33 folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ As ] wheeeeee!
myxiplx checks
botchaCRO is all-In [$27.93] omg, WHEEEEEE!
myxiplx calls [$27.93]
** Dealing River ** [ 4c ]
myxiplx shows [ Ad, Kc ]a full house, Aces full of Kings.
botchaCRO doesn't show [ 9c, 9d ]two pairs, Aces and Nines.
myxiplx wins $118.16 from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of Kings.

 

[blankoblanco]

On first one; I definitely push all-in here. If the guy has A9 or AA, that's pretty brutal, but there are lots of hands you beat that would make this bet and call your all-in.

On the second hand, well, NORMALLY I'd probably fold. Given how opponent checked the flop, raised the river, and made a large bet on the flop, the only hand I can see you beating is J9. You're beat by any set (sevens?), KT, T8, AJ, and AQ, the first 3 being most likely.

However, since you say he's really bad, I guess he could have any pair of aces that doesn't make two pair, or just be on a total bluff. Although, if the way he plays this looks different from how you've seen him bluffing (raising 3 times the bet on the turn instead of minraising), I might just give him credit for a real hand and fold. But I think I'd have to know firsthand how bad he is, so it's kinda read-dependent.

 

[myxiplx]

Ok, opportunity missed on the first one, I'll have to watch out for that. I was hung up on the turn being a bad call, and worried from the start about a higher 2 pair like A9. Sub-conciously I was still playing like I was behind (a previous week of bad beats wouldn't have helped). Thanks guys, I'll pay more attention to that in the future.

What do you think to my turn call in that first hand? That was the move I really didn't like, and the move I felt most likely to cost me money. Is that likely to be a positive or negative move in the long run?

Myx

 

[blankoblanco]

Crap I can't edit my last post anymore... in my previous post, I meant to say:

"given how opponent checked the flop, raised the turn, and made a large bet on the river"

... don't know how I garbled it so badly. Oops. Guess I need sleep.

 

[joosebuck]

i think you might need to fold or raise the turn instead of overcalling. with a board developing like that you need to define where your middle 2 pair stands. calling doesnt do that for you.

 

[Bombjack]

I suspect you're beat a lot of the time on the turn. If there was just a bet, maybe followed by a call, then I'd raise, and fold if re-raised.

But the bet then a raise, I think it's a fold. It's possible the bettor just has a weak Ace or something like K9, and the raiser has a stronger Ace and wants to give drawers to the straight incorrect odds, but this hand could get very expensive for you by the river (and you could get squeezed on this street), and you're drawing at just 4 outs for the full house, when it's doubtful you're ahead. You have no money invested so why not wait for a better opportunity to get your money in.

 

[gord962]

Ok, opportunity missed on the first one, I'll have to watch out for that. I was hung up on the turn being a bad call, and worried from the start about a higher 2 pair like A9. Sub-conciously I was still playing like I was behind (a previous week of bad beats wouldn't have helped). Thanks guys, I'll pay more attention to that in the future.

What do you think to my turn call in that first hand? That was the move I really didn't like, and the move I felt most likely to cost me money. Is that likely to be a positive or negative move in the long run?

Myx

You didn't lay down a FH did you????

 

[loopmeister]

** Dealing River ** [ 9s ] eeep, either very good or very bad
myxiplx checks
larsenus checks
botchaCRO bets [$33.25] str or A9?

Full house = very, very good. It's massively unlikely someone is holding A9, and if they are, well, you've got to pay them off. The good news is that those straights you were chasing are going to give you loads of action and you stand to take home more pot than Bob Marley would know what to do with.

 

[myxiplx]

Thanks guys, the results for those interested were:

Hand one:

myxiplx calls [$33.25] should have raised, normally would have, but have had a bad run and was thinking any hand calling my raise would probably have me beat...
larsenus folds
botchaCRO shows [ Tc, Jd ]a straight Seven to Jack.
myxiplx shows [ 9d, 8s ]a full house, Nines full of Eights.
myxiplx wins $98.50 from the main pot with a full house, Nines full of Eights.


Hand two:

myxiplx calls [$12] 99% sure he had the straight, but after winning the last pot I figured it was an investment to find out more about this player, and maybe loosen my image a bit.
rlarson33 folds
piloubox shows [ Tc, 8c ]a straight Eight to Queen.
myxiplx doesn't show [ Qd, 9d ]two pairs, Queens and Nines.
piloubox wins $43.70 from the main pot with a straight, Eight to Queen.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

#1

pf fine, flop fine, I fold the turn, though not because I'm 'waiting for a better spot' (this isn't a tournament), but because I think there's a large likelihood I'm crushed. A bet and a call on the turn and I will raise, but a bet and a raise I'm happy to fold to, one of the delightful intricacies of poker. I don't even have to think about the river decision - it's an easy call (edit: i mean easy push) - seems like you're seeing monsters under the bed if you give A9 so much consideration, there are a lot of hands villain plays just like this that you beat, if he has A9 then God bless him.

#2

All fine, the board is very dangerous so I don't mind playing it a little passively on the turn/river.

#3

I probably push the flop - he's pot committed and will call with a lot of hands we're way ahead of. If he has a made flush it's all going in on most turns anyway. What's your plan after calling the flop if a 4th heart comes on the turn?

 

[myxiplx]

err... cry?

No, in all seriousness I'm committed here and I'm not at all worried about the flush. His preflop raise felt like a steal attempt, and his pot bet felt like he was desperately trying to keep the pot for himself. I thought hard about calling, but in the end went with my read. I was pretty sure he had a pair, but not K's or A's. If he's got a heart or two, or I get outplayed so be it, but he's not betting like he's confident of his hand.

On a 4th heart I'd probably take my time thinking about it and then push out for his remaining chips. I don't think he'd have bet so hard on the flop with two checks before him with a good heart in his hand, especially after leading. If he's got a weak flush and is happy to call so be it but I would expect to win with a bet.

Myx

 

[myxiplx]

PS. Has to be said, I think I got very lucky with these hands. The two I made won me a decent size pot, and I didn't loose much on the other, but I feel I could very easily have lost all three, and I'm not 100% sure my calls on flop & turn won't lead to me loosing money in the long run.

I really need to go over the numbers to see if my expected win actually justifies the risks I'm taking. Two pair is proving the bane of my life, it's a strong hand on the flop but horribly, horribly vulnerable.

On the plus side, I think I'm developing a knack for when my 2 pair is beaten. I'm still calling down in these cases to confirm my reads but so far I've been on the money every time. I don't think it will be too long before I'm confident that I'm making the right decision when I lay these down.

 

[Bombjack]

#1
pf fine, flop fine, I fold the turn, though not because I'm 'waiting for a better spot' (this isn't a tournament), but because I think there's a large likelihood I'm crushed. A bet and a call on the turn and I will raise, but a bet and a raise I'm happy to fold to, one of the delightful intricacies of poker.

Yarr, wot I said.

I don't even have to think about the river decision - it's an easy call

Dorkus :bandit: :bandit: :stoned:? Surely easy PUSH?

#2
All fine, the board is very dangerous so I don't mind playing it a little passively on the turn/river.

Don't expect you to agree, but how about a min-re-raise for information? It only costs you $4 more, and if you don't, you have no idea where you stand when faced with the $12 bet on the river. Without the informational re-raise you must fold on the river.

#3
I probably push the flop - he's pot committed and will call with a lot of hands we're way ahead of. If he has a made flush it's all going in on most turns anyway. What's your plan after calling the flop if a 4th heart comes on the turn?

Agree - don't overly worry about the flush possibilities. But I prefer to check to the re-raiser if I know I'm going with the hand anyway. In this case, you have to put him all-in after he bets. You're favourite even if he does have a heart. If he checks behind, he either has the nut flush draw, or an underpair, possibly with a heart. If there's a heart on the turn, bet 1/3 to 1/2 the pot for information. If he sticks around, then try to check it down on the river, or stick in a 1/4 pot block-bet, and fold if raised.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

#1 Yeah, easy push, just testing. >_>

#2 I don't understand what the minraise would be acheiving other than swelling the pot. If someone min (or small) rereraises (entirely possible, donks love minraise wars) we're pricing ourselves in, no? If someone calls, does it mean we are ahead, in which case we can lead a blank river safely? Or does it mean we're getting slowplayed and are drawing slim, and if we do lead the river we're going to be in a world of pain? If villain comes back over the top with a big bet does he have a huge hand, does he have a huge draw, is he overvaluing TPTK or is he totally bluffing because he thinks our minraise is weak? Minraising, in most cases, will lead to more questions than answers, and ultimately leave us just as unsure of where we stand (if not more so) but in a larger pot where we will likely have to put more money into a void of uncertainty while out of position on the river. If you're going to raise for information, you need to at least raise an amount that will get you some information (an amount that a weak draw will have to fold to and a bluff will feel less inclined to come over the top of, for example)

#3 I meant c/r push as you stated.

 

[myxiplx]

Ok, definately should have pushed. Won $98.50 when it could have been a $198 pot, can I have opinions on whether you think he'd have called?

Thinking in terms of profitability now, the $10 call was a bit loose, I'm chasing 4 outs - around 8% chance of winning, so for this to be a profitable move I need to be taking at least $154 (14*$11) when my full house hits?

If the full house doesn't hit they may not always have the straight, but can I really afford to be paying them off with my 2 pair when they do?

If it does hit, even assuming they have the straight I don't see them calling all in every time, so I strongly suspect this is negative play in the long run.

I'm tempted to take the line that with 2 pair on a flop where it's likely a strong hand is out there, it's not worth the call unless you're pretty sure of getting a 10x return on that when you hit the hand. Basically it's got to be a cheap call against an opponent who's willing to stack off strong hands.

That sound right?

Myx

 

[Bombjack]

#2 - unlikely opponent would raise on the turn with just a draw, unless they think you're weak, which they have no real reason to suspect here. I'm thinking maybe they have a weak Ace. If they have the straight and you re-raise, most of the time people will see this as a green light to raise back, at which point you can safely fold. Just calling isn't too bad, but you have to then lead small on the river and see if you get raised (fold if so). On reflection you should probably just fold on the turn because there aren't many raising hands you beat.

 

[myxiplx]

Yeah, on #2 I was 99% sure I was behind after the turn raise. The call was purely for information to see if my read was right.