Help W/ Pot odds

[Barrettm95]

Site: full tilt poker
- Dealt to Barrettm95:

- Sklansky group 7
Preflop:
- tazlove327 calls [10] bigbull60 calls [10]
- nade_spam raises to 50
- Barrettm95 calls [40]
- tazlove327 calls [40] bigbull60 calls [40]
- Potsize: 200
Flop:

- nade_spam bets [200]
- Barrettm95 calls [200] bigbull60 raises to 400
- Barrettm95 calls [200]
- Folds: 2
- Potsize: 1200
Turn:

- Barrettm95 bets [1,200] bigbull60 calls [540] [ all-in ]
- Barrettm95 shows :
bigbull60 shows :
- Uncalled bet of 660 returned to Barrettm95
- Potsize: 1741
River:

- Barrettm95 shows a flush, King high
- bigbull60 shows a straight, Five high
- Barrettm95 wins the pot (2,280) with a flush, King high


I got a lot of grief from Nade_Spam for calling his 200. We seem to disagree about the pot odds. I say I was 4 to a flush on the flop and 200 call for a 400 pot is right. Isn't 2 one in four chances equal to 50:50? Was I right to call (by the odds not because it worked out for me?) It would help if he had shown his cards. It doesn't matter really from his POV that I called because it was BigBulls Raise that pushed him out. (WTH was BigBull thinking anyway Stone cold bluff? and again on the turn)

 

[Seneku]

The explaination you're giving is wrong. First off, it's not 1 in 4, but rather 1 in 5 (because a lot of clubs are already out), second, you're only paying to see the turn card, not the river as well. So it's not a 50% of making the flush but 20%.

You're paying 200 on the flop to see the turn card. The pot you're paying for is 400, so you're getting 2:1. The odds of making your flush on the turn are: 4:1. So just by looking at that you're wrong for making the call. The second call was correct, because you're getting 800:200, so about the chance of making your flush.

Of course your call on the flop you also have implied odds (the extra value you get if you hit your out). Therefore the first call you made could have been correct, if you would have known that there wouldn't have been a raise after you and you would have made at least another 400 if you had made your flush on the turn.

I hope I explained this correctly and understandable .

 

[ChuckTs]

Seneku's pretty much spot on.

I just want to add that you should be folding preflop. K8 is a terrible hand facing a raise, and it can lead to a lot of trouble (like in your hand above).

Ignore your opponents comments and listen to ours He's just as much of a donkey for playing 35 in that situation, even if you misplayed your hand as well.

Refer to these types of charts the next time you play:

(from Texas Hold'em Odds - Poker Odds)

 

[Stick66]

Just to add on: The biggest mistake I see people make is believing that their odds are twice as good after the flop as they are after the turn. That is not the case UNLESS YOU GO ALL-IN on the flop. If the odds of hitting a flush on one card are approximately 4-1, then it is 4-1 PER STREET since we only get one card per street unless we go all-in on the flop and get 2 cards for the 1 all-in action. The odds of hitting a flush on 2 cards at one time is, in fact, approximately 2-1.

 

[NineLions]

Stick, I think that's because a lot of sources explain it that way, and not all of them even bother to include what you're saying; that it only applies when someone is all in. Those doubled odds for the turn card didn't make sense to me when I was learning, and it doesn't make sense to me now why it's often mentioned before the caviat that it only applies in all ins.

 

[viking999]

True, but some people consider using the "two cards at once" figuring of the odds as an approximation of the implied odds. It has some validity:

Say on the flop the pot has 1, and your opponent bets 1 into your flush draw. If you call the pot will be 3.

If you get one more pot-sized bet out of the hand if you hit on the turn, then you will have won 5 for risking 1. So by assuming you get that one more bet, you actually are getting 5:1 odds, which makes a call profitable. A 2/3 pot bet gives you exactly the 4:1 you need to make the call.



One more clarification about the odds of hitting your hand with two cards to come. Technically, you can't just multiply the odds of it coming on the turn by two. There are two reasons. The less significant reason is that the odds on the turn are out of 47 cards left in the deck, and the odds on the river are from 46 cards left in the deck (but the same number of clubs). The more significant reason is that you are counting hitting a club on both the turn and river twice, even though you only win the hand once.

The real calculation would be the following:

% to win = chance to hit on the turn + chance to miss on the turn * chance to hit on the river

OR

% to win = 9 / 47 + (1 - (9 / 47)) * (9 / 46) = 34.968 %

Not a big deal to be able to play poker. Mostly for the math nerds.