Guess the Other Hand...Live Play

lasvegaspokerchick

lasvegaspokerchick

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I wish there was some way to give away a virtual prize to the forum member who correctly guesses the following hand and sizes up the right play. But, alas, I can't very well throw Hershey bars into the crowd now can I?

The following is a description of a hand my friend was involved in last night. The same description is on my blog. My friend (we'll just call him Happy Donkey...his choice, not mine) and I were sitting at the same table and it was a very good game. There were several tight, conservative, rather predictable players and three loose, aggressive donkeys...perfect mixture. Anyway, it was my live $4 straddle and one of the conservative players made it $12 to go from early-middle position. Two LAP called from middle position and my friend, Happy Donkey, raised to $25 from the button. I mucked and the original raiser pushed all in for $252 total. The two LAP mucked and Happy Donkey called time and went into the tank. As my friend was contemplating what to do, I evaluated what I thought the all in pusher most likely held. I'll tell you next post of my conclusion. After thinking for around a minute, Happy Donkey called. Both players flipped over their hands and Happy Donkey showed the KQ of spades.

My question to you for today is to weigh in on the following: What do you think the original raiser had? Was Happy Donkey dominated, coin flipping, or in the lead? All things considered did he make a good call or a donkey move?
 
S

Seneku

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AA/KK/AK, dominated and I believe it's a donkey move. Any ace is leading vs KQs and what hands can someone hold that he's raising with and pushes after a reraise? I can't see your friend being in front here.
 
Effexor

Effexor

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Anything that a tight conservative player 3 bets all-in with is probably well ahead of KQs. All things considered, my vote is for Donkey move.
 
V

viking999

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It's hard to say without knowing exactly how loose these other players were. Did they call a lot of preflop reraises? What about your friend? Loose or tight image?

If the loose players were inclined to call your friend's reraise a lot of the time if the conservative player called, then he might reraise to isolate heads up with JJ or QQ or better yet take it down right there. On the other hand, the fact that it's such an enormous re-re-raise (10x the last bet), it seems to show no fear, so probably AA or KK.
 
titans4ever

titans4ever

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Pot before he calls is $3 in blinds, your straddle $4, 3 bets of $12 and Happy Donkey raising to $25. Pot is now at $68. You have to call another $227 to see his cards. The poker dogma is a third raise is AA but your friend doesn't think so.

Possible hands:
Pocket pairs smaller than JJ. Now you at least have a coin flip. 50/50 to win. I could see calling if you had a read they overvalue small pocket pairs. ONLY way to make this call. I have done this in the past.
AK- now drawing on 30% chance to win.
AA, KK, QQ - Only one here that even gives you a chance is QQ (at least you still have a K to draw to).

If by miracle this is a bluff and you are ahead then kudos to you. Unless you have a known read here then this should be a standard laydown.

To answer, I would say AA or KK but since you posted this I am guessing it is crap. I would say a lower PP (your friend hits his Q but is rivered by a set) or a complete bluff and 52 off suit (and flops trips) is then my guess.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Conservative player likely had AK or small pair and was trying to buy the pot (with small-medium pair; probably 44-99) or at least ensure he saw all 5 cards (in the case of AK)
 
lasvegaspokerchick

lasvegaspokerchick

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Thanks to all the posts. The virtual Hershey bar would have to be split at this point between Titans4ever and Skoldpappa. Nobody except Pigpen02 wanted to commit to a single hand, but Titans and Skold included ranges that encompassed the actual hand.

Here's how it went down: When the tight/conservative player went all in I started evaluating what I thought he had and I narrowed it down to 10-10, J-J, or Q-Q. I was leaning more heavily to J-J or Q-Q. The reason for this is twofold: I did not think that this player would risk his entire stack unless he had a made hand. This is the case with many more conservative players. This analysis enabled me to eliminate AK and AQ from the possible holdings. I further believed that this player would not push all in in that situation with A-A or K-K, he certainly might have re-raised at that point, maybe to something around $100, in order to isolate against one player, but I didn't think he would go all in. Moving all in at that point was a large overbet of the pot and it indicated to me that he #1: had a hand that he felt needed protection and #2: was willing to take the pot down right there with no further action. These factors combined to make me eliminate A-A and K-K as options. I did not think that he would risk that much money on anything lower than 10s and so that left the three middle pocket pairs, with me leaning more heavily towards J-J or Q-Q. After speaking with Happy Donkey later in the evening, I discovered that his thought process had been almost identical to mine except that he had settled on either 10-10 or J-J. Therefore he made the call believing that he had two live, suited overcards and was coin flipping. The other player ended up having just that...J-J.

So my conclusion is that Happy Donkey made a GREAT read but a BAD call. Even though he correctly identified the hand that his opponent most likely held, he made what was, in my opinion, a donkey call. Here's why: First, there is the Q-Q factor. Q-Q could not be eliminated as a possible hand. If you look at 10-10, J-J, and Q-Q as the most likely hands, two are coin flips and one has you dominated. Second, you have to give yourself a little wiggle room in your calculations for mistakes...if Happy Donkey's read had been off, it was much more likely that it was off and the raiser had a better hand than jacks than it was likely that the raiser had a worse hand than jacks. Lastly, CALLING an all in bet is much more passive than MAKING an all in bet as you have no fold equity when you call. Therefore, while I do make all in bets that I think might result in facing a coin flip situation, I rarely call if I think that I am coin flipping. I would rather get my money in the pot when I have the best of it. If I had wanted to flip a coin for my money, I would have bet red or black.

Consequently, Happy Donkey spiked a Q on the turn and won the hand, but that's not really the point is it? (Oh BTW, "Happy Donkey" is famous this month. He is on page 48 of the most recent Card Player magazine under "Where in the World?")
 
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viking999

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Fair enough. Like I said, QQ and JJ make sense for isolation. I would say that this is proof that this guy is NOT a tight/conservative player, though. Tight/conservative players don't put in much money unless it's more or less a sure thing, and JJ is anything but a sure thing.
 
lasvegaspokerchick

lasvegaspokerchick

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lol...good point...how about if we say that for this game (and most like it at this limit here in town) that IS tight/conservative.
 
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