Flop set against nit reg

[BelgoSuisse]

Villain is 8/2/2 over more than 1000 hands and flat calls my preflop raise.

Is it reasonable to stack on this flop with bottom set?

full tilt poker Game #6923684636: Table Camino Del Santo - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 6:37:45 ET - 2008/06/22
Seat 1: Punken Droker ($24.75)
Seat 2: MaRoMu ($5.85)
Seat 3: xcmb53g ($16)
Seat 4: moment ($5)
Seat 5: BelgoSuisse ($25)
Seat 6: Lakotnik ($30.90)
Seat 7: XhamanX ($9.40)
Seat 8: Gunnarr ($25)
Seat 9: geoffrey60 ($25)
XhamanX posts the small blind of $0.10
Gunnarr posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [3h 3s]
Punken Droker has 15 seconds left to act
Punken Droker folds
MaRoMu folds
xcmb53g folds
BelgoSuisse raises to $0.85
Lakotnik folds
XhamanX calls $0.75
Gunnarr calls $0.60
*** FLOP *** [Qs 9h 3d]
XhamanX checks
Gunnarr checks
BelgoSuisse bets $2
XhamanX folds
Gunnarr raises to $6.75
BelgoSuisse raises to $22.80
Gunnarr raises to $24.15, and is all in
BelgoSuisse calls $1.35, and is all in
Gunnarr shows [9d 9s]
BelgoSuisse shows [3h 3s]

 

[Jagsti]

Belgo, TBH I wouldnt have shown the results to this as it may have promoted a little bit more of a discussion. That said, nit or not I'm never folding bottom set here. He could easily have 2 pair here, ok it's a raised pot, but even so. 99 looks a possibilty obviously, but these guys flat with AA,KK at times. Stacking off is fine imo.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

sorry, forgot to delete the results.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think it's fine. I'm not exactly ecstatic to get it in here, but I think he shows up with like slowplayed overpairs and AQ here enough of the time to make it standard.

 

[skoldpadda]

I think it's extremely difficult to fault someone for stacking off with a flopped set on this board.

 

[joos]

we all go broke there. rebuy and try again

 

[dsvw56]

This guy's AF is high enough that I'd be willing to stack with bottom set here. I wouldn't be fist pumping over it, but meh. He's going to show up with AQ, and slowplayed AA/KK often enough for this to be profitable.

 

[SavagePenguin]

Yeah, someone calling with stats limping in pretty much always has a small PP hoping for a set, or they're getting tricky with A/A or K/K. They won't slow play Q/Q pre-flop.

That means you're basically fearing 9/9, which he just so happened to have.

Getting all in against an 8 with bottom set is always going to be risky. Too bad.

 

[Monoxide]

Gross, but totally willing to stack off here - set over set is far from foldable.

No way could you have *just* put him on the 99, its just a cooler.

 

[Ihatecowboys]

theres absolutely no way you put him on 2 pair given the highest 2 cards are Q and 9 if hes that much of a nit (or TJ for that matter, doubt hed call your raise preflop, but maaaaybe if its sooted, much less raise you, he may call though), and probably the only pair he would even consider a CHECK raise with would be TPTK (AQ), but I'd see AQ as more of a come out betting hand for him. that leaves overpairs and sets, but overpair would only be KK and AA so thats a reraise preflop (and maybe a bet rather than check raise). QQ probably reraised too, but i'll leave that as a possibility cause maybe he would flat call pre flop you never quite know, and of course its a very likely check raise.

therefore I'd have him pegged as 99, with a possibility of AQ or QQ, and a very small possibility of KQ, KK, or AA.

based on probability:
chance of 99 = 6 / (52*52)
chance of QQ = 6 / (52*52)
chance of AQ = 24 / (52*52)

with the 9 up there AQ is 4x more likely, so maybe you are committed to this pot regardless of your intuition going "beep beep beep beep he's got 9's". it'd really is super hard to lay it down at any point no matter how you play it, so it isnt your fault at all especially as he most likely does not have the other set... but yeah looking back if there's one hand to put him on theres very good reason to think he may have that 99 if only cause of his image. it really all depends on if you are going to give him THAT much credit for being a nit that check raise DEFINITELY means set on a board with no possible flopped straights or flushes. if every time you get check raised, you fold hands that aren't the nuts, you are going to be losing a lot of potential money, but this IS a situation that you've really gotta be thinking he has a set, and not only a set, a set of 9's.

how the hell do you make yourself fold though, its just too hard... if you are going to fold you almost have to do it when he raises you the first time, cause after that you're almost approaching pot committed territory with the monster of a hand you have.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

OK, so i tend to agree this is mostly a cooler that I can't really get away from.

Nevertheless, I am correct to 3bet the flop? Of course when villain has 99, it doesn't change anything as all the money is getting in at the end anyway, but if he does have an overpair or AQ, shouldn't rather call his flop check-raise if I want to extract value from the hands that I do beat?

 

[ChuckTs]

Good point and I'm surprised no one touched on it yet and that I personally didn't even think about it.

The flop is relatively drawless (an 8/2 will never show up with JT) so we can expect him to have some KQ+ type hands in his range that won't necessarily ship vs a flop 3bet, and waiting for the turn is basically ideal.

Good point, I like flatting the ch-r much better.

 

[Ihatecowboys]

yes, 3 betting is probably only going to get the hands that DO beat you to call, so calling is a better option there. you ARE committing yourself at this point, so if he value bets on the turn it wouldnt be much more to go all in and if he checks, I'd probably value bet because I wouldnt want possible scare cards for him like 9, K, or maybe even J or T coming up on the river. they're slightly more likely to pop than sucker cards if you are putting him on AQ and AQ only.

it may sound funny, but folding that set the moment the guy raises you seems like the correct play the more and more I think about it. it doesnt seem logical and ISN'T in 99% of situations, but just may be the right thing to do here. you said this guy was a nit, which makes me feel he would 1. not cold call preflop with QQ, KK, AA and 2. definitely not use the check raise to bluff and 3. bet rather than check raise AQ, even though the straight is going to beat his 9's as well...

SO easy to say this after the fact though.