Call this monster river bet?

insolitude

insolitude

Rock Star
Joined
Jan 2, 2008
Total posts
255
Would love to get some feedback from you guys on this one. By this hand I have doubled my buy-in, and given the $5 max speedcake has been doing well.

PokerStars Game #15389614328: Hold'em No Limit ($0.01/$0.02) - 2008/02/19 - 00:16:46 (ET)
Table 'Vela V' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Loonie3006 ($2.83 in chips)
Seat 2: speedcake ($8.04 in chips)
Seat 3: insolitude ($10.01 in chips)
Seat 4: KeithTurbo48 ($2 in chips)
Seat 5: XxSaltyDogxX ($2.26 in chips)
Seat 6: sueblue ($2 in chips)
speedcake: posts small blind $0.01
insolitude: posts big blind $0.02
sueblue: posts big blind $0.02
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to insolitude [As Qd]
KeithTurbo48: calls $0.02
XxSaltyDogxX: calls $0.02
sueblue: checks
Loonie3006: calls $0.02
speedcake: calls $0.01
insolitude: raises $0.10 to $0.12
KeithTurbo48: calls $0.10
XxSaltyDogxX: calls $0.10
sueblue: folds
Loonie3006: folds
speedcake: calls $0.10
*** FLOP *** [Tc 9d Jc]
speedcake: bets $0.48
insolitude: calls $0.48
KeithTurbo48: folds
XxSaltyDogxX: folds
*** TURN *** [Tc 9d Jc] [8h]
speedcake: checks
insolitude: bets $1
speedcake: calls $1
*** RIVER *** [Tc 9d Jc 8h] [9s]
speedcake: bets $5.94
insolitude: ???
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
This is pretty murky. I think you're looking at a split pot at best, and a set could *really* take a line like this. You're also not even getting 2:1 on your $, so we have to be correct in this call really often to make this play profitable.

This is a microstakes game, but even then, the regulars you encounter will generally be decent players. Loose calls on the river like this can really get you in trouble, and we can find hands against fish that are better places for our $. This looks a lot like TT, 9T, or J9. Maybe another queen that had a bigger draw than you on the flop, like QJ, or QcXc.

There's just so few hands out there that take this line that we beat. To me, sitting here with plenty of time to ponder this decision, this is an easy fold.

I like the large-ish turn bet too btw.

/me opts for fold
 
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SeanyJ

SeanyJ

Legend
Joined
Aug 21, 2007
Total posts
1,558
I think you have to fold here, the best you can hope for is a tie. It really doesn't look like he had a set to start but it could be something like 9J or 9T. You can easily find a better spot to get this much money in.
 
insolitude

insolitude

Rock Star
Joined
Jan 2, 2008
Total posts
255
Okay, I'm sure you guys already know the end of this story.

insolitude: calls $5.94
*** SHOW DOWN ***
speedcake: shows [Th 9c] (a full house, Nines full of Tens)
insolitude: mucks hand
speedcake collected $14.61 from pot
speedcake is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $15.36 | Rake $0.75
Board [Tc 9d Jc 8h 9s]
Seat 1: Loonie3006 (button) folded before Flop
Seat 2: speedcake (small blind) showed [Th 9c] and won ($14.61) with a full house, Nines full of Tens
Seat 3: insolitude (big blind) mucked [As Qd]
Seat 4: KeithTurbo48 folded on the Flop
Seat 5: XxSaltyDogxX folded on the Flop
Seat 6: sueblue folded before Flop

A couple of walkaways for me.

* I hadn't really considered that the best I could hope for was a split pot. I had put speedcake on K(9-J), but when he came over the top I feared the FH. I really need to consider whether I'm overvaluing a likely draw in these kinds of situations.

* I need to take more time to make these kinds of decisions. I have a good ~30k hands under my belt, and I've never requested time.

After the hand was over speedcake said he probably would have been chased off with a bigger bet on the turn. Anyone think this hand warranted a bigger turn bet? If so, please explain.

TIA
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
Anyone think this hand warranted a bigger turn bet? If so, please explain
I don't mind the bet on the turn, and I think the size is about right. He liked his hand fairly well from the pot bet on the flop, and we're likely to bluff at a scare card like that on the turn, so he's likely to call a fairly good sized bet here.

So we got him to call against odds, which is great since we don't want him to go away. He's drawing to 4 outs. I think you could've gotten him to call a slightly higher bet on the turn, but the sizing is really about right.

The main thing is that we have 2nd nuts right now, and we want to charge all those drawing to a better hand. Villain's range may have a flush draw, or various draws to a boat. Draws to a boat are about 1:3.5 (if he's holding TT), and draws to a flush are about 1:4. So we need to offer him at least ~2.5:1 pot odds to make his call a mistake, and that's exactly what you offered him. You maybe could've gotten him to call up to ~$1.20, but the turn bet size was about perfect.
 
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G

greener_lax

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
163
look at the level of blinds you're playing at. you have the straight and at those level of blinds i dont see how u could fold
 
SeanyJ

SeanyJ

Legend
Joined
Aug 21, 2007
Total posts
1,558
look at the level of blinds you're playing at. you have the straight and at those level of blinds i dont see how u could fold

Well you can fold because it is pretty clear that you are beat or just going for a tie, throwing away 6 dollars to try and split the pot doesn't make any sense.
 
38special

38special

Enthusiast
Joined
Oct 24, 2007
Total posts
85
look at the level of blinds you're playing at. you have the straight and at those level of blinds i dont see how u could fold

this is an easy fold, mainly because the board is paired. if not for the pair i probly call here most of the time, if he has the bigger strait on a hand like this i suspect we would have got all the money in on the turn.
 
G

gomango

Rock Star
Joined
Nov 13, 2007
Total posts
108
I would call the worst would be K Q were you afraid. Not me call or even raise.

I forgot pr on board not worth losing all your money . Fold
 
Last edited by a moderator:
CrackaNACtion

CrackaNACtion

Rock Star
Joined
Feb 20, 2008
Total posts
392
well ur playing low stakes so a fold wouldnt like kill ur bankroll. he couldve hit a mircacle straight or the boat... lol sorry for ur luck! couldve been alot worse
 
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