Another tough hand...

J

joeeagles

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I don't consider myself an expert, but by analyzing this hand it was clear that there was a chance he had something like that. What we have to focus on here is not only what range we put our opponent on, but also, as many poker books tell us all the time, we need to focus on what our opponent thinks we have. That is the key in this hand. IMO this is a pretty decent player, he made a great move because he perfectly understood what bombjack had and gave himself a real good chance to get away with it.

If we look carefully at HH this player called a $2 PF raise and after that he called again when BJ raised it to $10. Now, when the flop comes and pot is $40.75 nastydog leads out with a miserable $3 bet to which BJ just calls. Here is where you have to understand that this player will narrow the range where he puts BJ on and probably pinpointed him either on a PP where he was scared of the A on the board, or he could be slowplaying a big hand.

Then came the scare card which was a perfect opportunity for him to take advantage of. That huge $20 bet pretty much shrinks the chance he has an A, unless it was the A of diamonds or a strong diamond kicker as was pointed out. His bet more likely means a flush or a hand worst than BJ's. It was pointed out by BJ that he was loose preflop and he only made calls preflop in this hand, he never raised so his range can be wide.

I obviously don't blame BJ for folding there, because a call or shove is a risky move but if you analyze it carefully you can see how this is not a clear fold. It's not all about the range you put your opponent on, its also about what he thinks you have.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

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^^ I agree with everything here, except that $20 is not a huge bet when the pot is $50.

BTW I think my chances of being up against a made flush are small. If I am, I'm prepared to go broke when the pot offers me over 2:1. I put him on an Ace, but thinking about it later, I think an Ace bets bigger here unless it has precisely [kd] or maybe [qd] as its kicker (i.e. unlikely). I think the best move on the turn is to shove, since this folds KK-JJ (without diamond) plus some Aces, and gets a call from a naked flush draw, which I beat. I'm in two minds about whether I should have put in a small raise on the flop, or even just shoved the flop.
 
J

joeeagles

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Yeah you're right, $20 is not a huge bet in a $50 pot. More credit to him because he made it look like a value bet. I don't think you can blame yourself for not shoving the flop, it was a 4-way pot and you can legitimately guess someone has an A.

The shove on the turn would have been the winning move this time, but it was risky. Pot was offering 70 to 20, and you're certainly better than me in doing the math on how many times you need to be right to make a profit there if you shove, and we can assume that if you shove nastydog will likely fold (I think he probably did have an A).
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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Joe,

Villain here is 48/14/2.5. You're giving him too much credit. I can practically guarantee his thought processes were more akin to "UGGGGG ME bluff NOW", or perhaps "ME GOT PAIR ME BET ARRIN" than anything else.

Plus there's another player in the hand.

Plus, if villain is paying attention, dog guy's tiny flop bet is often indicative of a draw, the biggest of which hits on the turn.

This is an easy fold and if villain hadn't showed, the hand wouldn't have even been posted. :)
 
Bombjack

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A shove on the turn has to work 40/(70+40) = 36% of the time to break even, assuming I only win when he folds.

36%*(+70) + 64%*(-40) = 0

If he has an Ace, say [as][ks], and calls, I still win 22% of the time, so my expectation from shoving is

22%*(+90) +78%*(-40) = -11.4

So if he only calls when he has an Ace (no high diamond kicker), what n% of the time must he have the Ace to make a shove +EV?

n*(-11.4) + (1-n)*(70) = 0
n*(-11.4) + 70 -70n = 0
70 = 81.4*n
n = 86%

So shoving this turn is +EV so long as he doesn't have the Ace 14% or more of the time.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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You're not accounting for (a) times he has the Ad, (b) as stated, times he has a high diamond kicker, and (c) times he has a hand that beats you that doesn't include an Ace. These three possibilities make up a huge portion of villain's range, hence your workings are flawed.

Even putting this aside I don't think we can venture far above Harrington's 10% 'minimum' big bet bluff%.
 
J

joeeagles

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Ok, maybe I am giving him too much credit and you're probably right that his only thought process was to bluff on the scare card. I don't have PT yet so I'm not sure of the meaning of 48/14/2.5. I also agree that the bluff move is much better done HU and he was a bit silly to try it there, even if it did work for him as far as I understood.

Folding makes sense here as there are too many ways to lose with T's. I won't argue that and I did say I don't blame BJ for folding.

Big pots like this one often create tough decisions, since many players don't give up on them easily. That's the main reason why I kind of doubted that he had the flush. It just seemed more likely that he didn't have it. That board with a $50 pot will certainly invite someone to bluff.

You make a great point when you mention dog's tiny bet that could be indicative of a draw. That, IMO, is probably the best reason to fold here. But this was not brought up before. The consensus was that Liffy has BJ beat, and while that was a possibility, it was not a given. The presence of the other player is a much better reason to fold, IMO.

So DM, I agree with everything you say except that its an easy fold. It might be so because pot was 3-way here. I strongly doubt you would think that if it were HU though. The $20 bet was offering BJ 70 to 20 odds on this hand and you only need to be right a certain percentage of times, (about 30% if I'm figuring this correctly) if this were HU. Of course I can't assess the % of times people bluff in this spot, probably you can't either, and its only accademic since it wouldn't apply in this case.

Just some food for thought.
 
alexanderwoo1

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I would fold because if he has an Ace he could still have the J,Q, or K of diamonds which would beat your 10 high flush draw.
 
Bombjack

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I would fold because if he has an Ace he could still have the J,Q, or K of diamonds which would beat your 10 high flush draw.
Thanks, I never thought of that, and everyone else must have missed it too!
 
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