AK UTG; 3-bet by SB

J

joeeagles

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Mar 24, 2007
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This is villains 2nd orbit so not much help as far as reads. I had position on him and it's folded behind me so decided to look at a flop even though 3-bets at $50 max are suspicious:

Stacks: - UTG+1 with $8.50 - UTG+2 with $67.25 - UTG+3 with $33.55 - UTG+4 with $76.75 - BTN with $47.30 - SB with $31.80 - $treetShark with $57.10 - UTG with $51.60



index.pl

Site: pokerstars
Holecards:
- UTG (Hero) is dealt
:kh4: :ad4:
Preflop:
- UTG (Hero) raises $1.50 to $2
- SB raises $6.50 to $8.50
- UTG (Hero) calls [$6.50]
- Folds: 6
- Potsize: $17.5
Flop:
:6d4: :8d4: :3d4:
- SB bets [$23.30] [ all-in ]
- UTG ?


A draw to the nut flush and 2 overcards which you're not sure if they're alive. You need $23.30 to call in $40.80 pot. What's your play? Call or fold?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Feb 2, 2005
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13,642
He really looks like he wants you to go away...

I probably call this expecting to see 99-QQ (possibly 77 too) a lot of the time, an overly-played AK/AQ some of the time, and occasionally a set, something like A8 or A6 and AA/KK.

Even against QQ we're a favourite in the hand unless he holds a diamond, in which case we're only %1 under a coinflip.
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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Mar 7, 2007
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You have to call. reasoning below

Against AA you are 36%. Against KK ( including diamond you are 42%. Against everyother Overpair you are coin flip. Against trips you are 27% - but no-one is going all in after hitting trips. Against AK,AQ you are 32% win 68% tie.

Your potential call represents 38% of the pot and I reckon your overall odds are higher that that.
 
TubaMark316

TubaMark316

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Oct 3, 2007
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I'd say you would probably have to call here...

Like Chuck said, I would be surprised if he had overpairs hence it being 9's, 10's or jack's and just wants you out of the pot because ALL diamonds hit the flop...

I have a gut feeling that he wants you out of the pot thinking that you have a good flush draw, but knock his ass out with the flush and make him go home and cry to his mama...:D
 
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