AJs - nut flush and gutshot draws, OOP

[Bombjack]

Opponent is quite loose and a bit tricky. I don't have any stats (this is PKR). Lead the turn or slow down? If lead, how much?

Seat 1: fusildsyeul - $35.23
Seat 2: Bombjack - $103.99
Seat 3: Ghodale - $4
Seat 4: AGTIGT - $10.68
Seat 5: krystalclear - $59.15
Seat 6: kamakazi10 - $56.89
Moving Button to seat 1
Bombjack posts small blind ($0.25)
Ghodale posts big blind ($0.50)
Shuffling Deck
Dealing Cards
Dealing [

] to Bombjack
AGTIGT folds
krystalclear calls $0.50
kamakazi10 folds
fusildsyeul folds
Bombjack raises to $2.50
Ghodale folds
krystalclear calls $2.50
Dealing Flop [

]
Bombjack bets $5
krystalclear calls $5
Dealing Turn [

]
Bombjack...

 

[blankoblanco]

I'd lead the turn. Maximizes fold equity now and, the times he calls, maximizes the amount you'll get in the pot if you hit the river. If you check now and then lead out on the river when a club comes, it's often too much of a give away. I lead for something around $10.

 

[calibanboy]

This is an interesting hand, and one we see fairly often.

You are likely to be losing at the moment. You 12 likely outs. My suggestion is to try and see the River cheaply.

This may mean a block bet.

 

[joosebuck]

royal drawwww SHOVE

 

[blankoblanco]

This is an interesting hand, and one we see fairly often.

You are likely to be losing at the moment. You 12 likely outs. My suggestion is to try and see the River cheaply.

This may mean a block bet.

I don't like this at all. a) gives us virtually 0 fold equity on this street. b) makes it super obvious we have a draw and we get little value when we hit. Worst of both worlds. I think betting out as if you're trying to price out a draw is much better. Maximizes fold equity and conceals your hand for getting value when you're called.

 

[Bombjack]

Dealing Turn [

]
Bombjack bets $12
krystalclear calls $12
Dealing River [

] ($25.50 in pot, krystalclear has $34.15 left, I have her covered)
Bombjack...

 

[ChuckTs]

ugh...time to give up methinks :/ I don't think he's calling down with something that'll fold to any river bet.

 

[alan1983]

I dont think i take a stab at this one.

I think the only good hand that would have called us MAYBE is QJ.

Krystal called us on flop and turn, he either has QJ, or like Q9 clubs (both would be the less likely options imo).

Or krystal has a king, in which case were screwed, or krystal has a pocket pair, in which case, if he was ready to call with the king overcard, then the 2nd king will only encourage another call since itll make it unlikely you have one.

I think the times where a river bet works, with us holding the jack and ace of clubs, just arent worth it.

or maybe im a wuss?

 

[Bombjack]

Or krystal has a king, in which case were screwed, or krystal has a pocket pair, in which case, if he was ready to call with the king overcard, then the 2nd king will only encourage another call since itll make it unlikely you have one.

It also makes it less likely that she has one.

 

[ChuckTs]

What can she be calling down with that we can bet out though?

QJ, smaller flush draw, AT maybe. I find it hard to see those hands calling down for the ~pot bets though. My guess is that it's KT+ or a set (turned FH) most of the time, and one of the above mentioned hands a very small % of the time.

 

[alan1983]

It also makes it less likely that she has one.

I think youd have to shove then right? coz if a ten or pocket pair called you all the way till river, any other bets probably gonna get called too.

Even shove might not work if he doesnt have king, plus times he has the king, i dunno... Is it worth it?

 

[dj11]

You're toast here, time to butter yourself up and jump in the jam.

 

[blankoblanco]

I like your turn bet. Unfortunately you got called, missed, and to top it off, I think this is a bad river card for you. I probably just give up and check here. A lot of the hands you'd drive out with a bet are hands you'd have showdown value against (QJ, two non-pairing clubs), and they may be too scared to bet at it.

If you check here, your line looks exactly like a K who's putting the other player on a busted draw. Sometimes he'll see that and not bother bluffing his missed draw, and you can actually win the hand. But if he's got a K or T and called down this far, he's probably not going away.

 

[Bombjack]

If you check here, your line looks exactly like a K who's putting the other player on a busted draw. Sometimes he'll see that and not bother bluffing his missed draw, and you can actually win the hand.

I like your thinking.

Dealing River [

]
Bombjack checks
krystalclear bets $20

To me this looks very much like a bluff, maybe with a draw or a smaller pair. It's unlikely she has a King or a set, because I think she raises at some point if she does. So I tell it like I have AK, and she makes a fairly amazing call seeing as she almost certainly thought she was bluffing the river.

Bombjack raises to $84.49 (all-in)
krystalclear calls $39.65 (all-in)
Returning $44.84 to Bombjack uncalled
Bombjack shows [

]
krystalclear shows [

]
Taking Rake of $3 from pot 1
Bombjack has One Pair : Kings
krystalclear has Two Pairs : Kings, Fives
krystalclear wins $115 .80 with: Two Pairs: Kings, Fives

 

[blankoblanco]

Wow, that's a ridiculous call by her. What the hell. She's either brilliant or an absolutely huge fish, and I don't know which.

 

[joeeagles]

More likely a fish, impossible she read his hand with his betting patterns.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well the river ch-r doesn't really add up to me. Sure, could be trips/FH checking to induce a bluff, but in general at that level you see people just plain value betting.

I'm not saying it was a good call (plz tell me you took notes ), but BJ's river play was a bit odd.

 

[calibanboy]

I don't like this at all. a) gives us virtually 0 fold equity on this street. b) makes it super obvious we have a draw and we get little value when we hit. Worst of both worlds. I think betting out as if you're trying to price out a draw is much better. Maximizes fold equity and conceals your hand for getting value when you're called.

I fully understand the principle of fold equity, that said I also follow the aproach of ensuring that I bet heavily when ahead and minimise when I am behind. ( win big - lose smaller ) this position is marginal at best at the moment.

To me - someone who calls a pot bet on the flop is not going away easily ( hence I belive you have very little fold equity for a 2/3 pot bet on the turn considering the turn card)

 

[alan1983]

I like calling the river bet.

(but why the raise?)

I think a medium pair is unlikely to bet here and as BJ said the 2nd king makes it more unlikely that she has one too. that + ur read that shes tricky.

But why would u raise it? worked out brilliantly but if she has any kind of pair shes not folding it and if she has nothing, she shouldnt be calling?

 

[Bombjack]

I like calling the river bet.

(but why the raise?)

I think a medium pair is unlikely to bet here and as BJ said the 2nd king makes it more unlikely that she has one too. that + ur read that shes tricky.

But why would u raise it? worked out brilliantly but if she has any kind of pair shes not folding it and if she has nothing, she shouldnt be calling?

It's a good point and I might have over-estimated my fold equity given she only has $20 left. If she had $60 behind this might be a better play.

I'm wondering if a fake "fake blocker" lead would have been better, say for $5.

 

[calibanboy]

It's a good point and I might have over-estimated my fold equity given she only has $20 left. If she had $60 behind this might be a better play.

I'm wondering if a fake "fake blocker" lead would have been better, say for $5.

I belive that this is what you should have done on the turn. There are times when you have to give a pot up, regardless of what you have invested. Ithink this is one of them.

 

[alan1983]

I dont think a 5$ river bet works. It might have reverse effect. If she sees you betting so weak on river, sure she may think youre doing it to get a call or induce raise but faced with a large pot already, i dont think shed resist making a move here. she cant cold call it, and i think folding to the 5$ bet would be 2 defeatist for her. I think she raises it more often than not. And the problem would then be us leaning more towards not calling since wed interpret that raise as stronger than what happened in this case.

5$ bet could ultimately play the trick on us rather than our opponent.