Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/11/2

I was sure he will bet on the Flop, so I check-raised, waiting for another spade to NOT come, but the bad thing happened, what now????.
Is there any possibility to win this hand by playing it differently? What kind of PT stats I can use to make a decision if I can make a semi-bluff on the Turn successfully?
I know this hand was probably optimal against an unknown opponent. I am a new PokerTracker user, so, tell me more about analyzing opponents in this kind of situation by HUD stats. Thanks


iPoker - €0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Hand converted by PokerTracker 4



BTN: 140.75 BB (VPIP: 20.97, PFR: 11.29, 3Bet Preflop: 5.88, Hands: 63)

SB: 148.5 BB (VPIP: 24.09, PFR: 13.25, 3Bet Preflop: 2.38, Hands: 2,027)

BB: 13 BB (VPIP: 56.36, PFR: 5.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 55)

UTG: 125 BB (VPIP: 22.43, PFR: 17.18, 3Bet Preflop: 6.96, Hands: 490)

MP: 282.75 BB (VPIP: 80.84, PFR: 16.87, 3Bet Preflop: 6.98, Hands: 171)

Hero (CO): 197 BB



SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB



Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A♦ K♣



fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 6 BB



Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 2♠ A♠ 7♣

Hero checks, BTN bets 9.75 BB, Hero raises to 31.5 BB, BTN calls 21.75 BB



Turn: (82.5 BB, 2 players) 4♠

Hero checks, BTN checks



River: (82.5 BB, 2 players) 6♠

Hero checks, BTN checks



Hero shows A♦ K♣ (One Pair, Aces)

(Pre 50%, Flop 50%, Turn 50%)

BTN shows K♦ A♣ (One Pair, Aces)

(Pre 50%, Flop 50%, Turn 50%)

BTN wins 37.75 BB

Hero wins 38 BB

This case is a natural draw. The hand must be resolved preflop. You have your opponent covered in chips, and you should not let him lead the boat with this premium combination you received.
Greetings.

I would 4 bet and call the inevitable 5 bet shove preflop.

Originally Posted by gustav197poker

This case is a natural draw. The hand must be resolved preflop. You have your opponent covered in chips, and you should not let him lead the boat with this premium combination you received.
Greetings.

There's no way you can get the other AK to fold. Too much was invested for your opponent to fold.

Bet turn, other than that well played.

6c of AK left, and 2 of those include the K of spades. You could shove river and see if he folds (he only has about 60 left behind, so he might call no matter what.

On the turn, he still may have some suited cards... not many. KQs is one. Pot odds are the same for the shove. He is just calling too often I think the rake makes it not worth it.

Though I will say your line, if we are ending with a shove on the turn, is consistent with a flush draw that hit.

Not a HUD expert, maybe W$aSD? You also want to include his 3 bet percentages to narrow down his hand range here. And fold to 4bet, which you should have considered preflop.

hackmeplz is correct. You need to bet the turn. V is tight, he's only 3 betting 6% and the A of spades is on the board. What flush can he have on the turn after he 3 bets pre? KQs is borderline in his 3 bet range but it's only one combo. So we are losing to 1 combo of KQs (which is a stretch for a player this tight) and 1 combo of AA. Think of it from his perspective though. Our raise / call pre range has several more flushes and sets and big Ax with one spade. It sucks that we are OOP and if he calls the turn we should probably give up rivers when the fourth spade comes in but we may have taken it down with a strong turn bet. V has to worry about sets and flushes and facing a river jam if he calls.