$600 NLHE Full Ring: Live 2/5 - Triple barrel line gets jammed on :(

[c0rnBr34d]

At first I thought this was a snap fold but then after thinking about it more I wondered if we have to defend here at some frequency.

Not much reads on V but I know he's a regular and we have him covered. Middle aged guy I'm sure we've played with before but nothing stands out.

V limps from EP with $815 effective, 2 more limps from MP and LP.

Hero is in BB and covers. Hero raises to $35 with KhKc. I could have gone larger here since we are OOP but I don't think it's too much of a mistake.

Only V calls.

Flop (~$75): 6h 6s 8c
V shouldn't have much 6x for this price but there are 4 combos of 65s and 67s along with 3 combos of 88 that got there. The rest if Vs range will struggle to continue so we down bet a bit on most paired flops. Hero bets $25, V calls without much thought.

Turn ($125): 6h 6s 8c Qh
This card opens things up a bit. I feel like now we can get value from Qx and some heart draws, maybe a few combo draws, etc. We decide to size up a bit and bet $85, V thinks about it this time then calls.

River ($295): 6h 6s 8c Qh 7d
The river seems pretty blank for us. If V has the one combo of 67s they filled up. 77 should never have made it this far, maybe T9h can get there? What is our play here. V has so few value combos I feel like we HAVE to go for 3 streets here with Kings up. So it comes down to sizing then? We decide to go 2/3 pot and bet $200. V thinks for a bit and then shoves for $670 total. Gross. Snap fold right? How could he have bluffs here right? Should we even consider things like MDF? I'm probably checking my option with 65s and 67s pre flop so as played we have one combo of 66, 3 combos of 88, 3 combos of QQ, and then it's AA and KK. Pretty close to the top of our range. Is it exploitable to fold AA and KK here and only call with boats? Do we just not care about stuff like MDF in hands like this since the V isn't a maniac and the spot is underbluffed?


Thoughts on all streets welcome!

 

[Sidetracked]

It's a thoroughly miserable spot, and is so villain dependent. A passive fish (open limping) is probably never going to have less than 3 of a kind there, but some passive fish also have a tendency to spew massively from time to time.

 

[Batarang96]

Check the flop. The board is bone dry, you're OOP, and you only have a pair. Keep the pot small. If he bets, then he has confirmed that your hand is better.

I like a $30 bet on the turn. This shows additional strength and prevents JTs and hearts from profitably calling.

The river is always a check.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Check the flop. The board is bone dry, you're OOP, and you only have a pair. Keep the pot small. If he bets, then he has confirmed that your hand is better.

I like a $30 bet on the turn. This shows additional strength and prevents JTs and hearts from profitably calling.

The river is always a check.

I must be missing some context here. So on every paired board with an over pair in a protected pot and heads up you're going check flop, less than half pot bet turn, check river for one street of value? I get that the flop texture isn't great and we can find a check at some small frequency but certainly not 100% right? This just seems a bit too passive to me.

 

[TheBigFinn]

There is no way of knowing or changing the betting to know. It becomes a read on Villain, Is she someone that can call along to make a a stack river bluff? In my experience there are not that many $2/$5 players that are.

The limp call disavows high pairs. on the flop with her limp call. Calling the flop hints toward TT, 99, 88, and 77. I don't see her with a 6.

The Queen on the turn is interesting. In Villain's position it is unlikely the Q helped Hero. Calling here doesn't convey much.

The river 7 is unlikely to have helped anyone, and now comes the question, is KK worth three streets of value? What hand doe Hero think Villain has that will play him off? TT? If I were Villain my choice would not be call or fold, but shove or fold. If KK is hardly ever called why bet? If Hero calls she likely has you beat. If she raises, Hero is in an unknowing spot.

As I see it if Hero bets, he has already made the decision to call a shove, Waiting until he sees the shove is a mistake.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

There is no way of knowing or changing the betting to know. It becomes a read on Villain, Is she someone that can call along to make a a stack river bluff? In my experience there are not that many $2/$5 players that are.

The limp call disavows high pairs. on the flop with her limp call. Calling the flop hints toward TT, 99, 88, and 77. I don't see her with a 6.

The Queen on the turn is interesting. In Villain's position it is unlikely the Q helped Hero. Calling here doesn't convey much.

The river 7 is unlikely to have helped anyone, and now comes the question, is KK worth three streets of value? What hand doe Hero think Villain has that will play him off? TT? If I were Villain my choice would not be call or fold, but shove or fold. If KK is hardly ever called why bet? If Hero calls she likely has you beat. If she raises, Hero is in an unknowing spot.

As I see it if Hero bets, he has already made the decision to call a shove, Waiting until he sees the shove is a mistake.

I really like this post and while I tend to agree that the river is a x/c or a b/c, this is in direct conflict with the earlier statement you made that most 2/5 players aren't bluff jamming river over a triple barrel. So if Vs are unbalanced then the question becomes can we b/f as an exploit? If we can, then it's not really fair to go back and say we shouldn't have bet in the first place is it? Seems like circular logic. That is the whole reason for this post.

And to the other question. In these games I have found calling ranges to be somewhat inelastic such that if they are calling a value bet, many times they are calling a larger bet (even an overbet) with similar frequency. So if they are more indifferent to sizing it becomes a huge advantage to polarize river bets more often. In this case Hero is targeting Qx or JJ that may want to bluff catch against when Hero has AK (especially AKhh) or an under pair here.

 

[Casey55]

villains limping range can vary vastly. I think when someone limps they are limping with a hand they consider playable but not strong enough to raise its really player dependent on what they perceive as a hand that is playable but I think his range on the flop can have a few 6's . A6s'76s,65s,66 I mean maybe even A6o if he's bad enough.. limping out of EP I don't think is the sign of a great player.

I like your flop and turn play. On the river I think the 7 does hit villains range a fair bit. Obviously it gives him a set of 77 which in theory should end up here on the river from MDF standpoint. 76s fills up, 88 is boat and T9s for a straight.

I don't know if we should barrel river in this spot or not since the 7 does help a chunk of villains range and when it comes to value betting river what are we hoping to get value from?

I suppose you could get value from QJs,QTs,Q9s the ones that had a backdoor flush on the flop could have called and turned a Q, thats 9 combos.

Alot of villains heart draws missed, maybe he has like A8s or A7s or 98s but I don't think those are calling a good sized bet.

and the rest of villains range is beating us 77 is 3 combos
T9s is 4 combos,

I guess we can value if we don't expect villain to slow play much at all but if he does than we have all the other boats and stuff to worry about.

Hero bets 200 into 300 so the pot is 500 and villain shoves 670? that means total pot is 1170. we have to call 320. nearly 4:1 on a call.

Our MDF here would be 42%. Our range on the river I think would be AA,KK,QQ,,AQ. ( Im not sure if you would bet KQs for 3-streets)

if this is our value range we have 27 combos. We would need to defend 11 combos.
If we fold out all of our AQ we are left with 15 combos.. we need to fold 4 more...between AA,KK and QQ... meaning we would need to fold half of our KK to meet MDF. I guess we would fold the ones that have a heart because it makes it more likely villain would have broken flush?

Honesty I think we just fold here, Idk if it makes sense for villain to bluff shove because we are getting great odds to call and the river does make sense on improving a bunch of his hands. seems like a super slow-play or something. I'm really not sure what I would do this is a tricky one I think it can go either way but your pot odds are almost too good to fold if the guy is ever just shoving cause he missed hearts.. he limped EP.

 

[Vallet]

A limp call line can mean a small pocket pair on a preflop in the hope of catching a set. I do this myself when I don't want to get a raise on my bet, but I want to watch the flop cheaper with a small pair. Maybe 66,88,77. You made a big bet on the river in 2/3 of the pot. I think if you made a bet smaller than the size, then the bluff would be more logical. Your opponent sees a big bet, but raises it even higher. He understands that you are unlikely to fold.

 

[loafaBREAD]

Yea you won't loose too much by folding here. He has zero bluffs for his jam size, and is unlikely to be jamming something worse than KK if he limped pre.

Sucks man.

 

[Figaroo2]

I think 3 streets are fine here but its a river fold for me. My cash games coach says if you bet over half pot on the river and get shoved on its almost never a bluff.
As was stated, the limp call likely indicates something he just wants to see a flop with so player dependent a lot of suited connectors and small/middle pairs. That range hits this board hard and I'm folding and not losing any sleep over it.