$600 NLHE Full Ring: Do you hero call or fold?

[Jamalex]

Live $2/$5

Button seemed like a fun/loose player, watched him call a sizeable preflop 3bet OOP with JTo and call down a 3 street barrel all in bluff for around $200bb with just top pair

I open to $15 in the HJ with 6s6c ($1600)
Button 3bets to $75 ($1400)
I call and we are heads up

Flop ($155)
9s 4h 2c
I check, he checks back

Turn ($155)
9s 4h 2c 9h
I bet $55, he raises to $250, I call

River ($655)
9s 4h 2c 9h 3d
I check, he bets $500

What would you do with 6s6c?

 

[Hermus]

I don't play live but my standard adjustment facing loose-passive recreational players is to check back more with the lower end of marginal hands, over-fold slightly when facing aggression, and value bet more with good to nutted hands.

With 66 on this dry low texture which basically misses both your ranges you have some decent showdown value. I also expect your fold equity to be lower against this player. Therefore I like taking a check/call line on the turn, and with this runout check/fold on the river (against two streets of aggression).

As played, 66 is probably among the worst bluff catchers in your range. Against a balanced player I suspect you're indifferent between calling and folding and randomising this decision is best. If live translates to online, loose-passive players under bluff (i.e. their range is value heavy) most spots and 66 would be one of the first hands to consider as an exploitative fold both facing the turn raise and the river bet.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Its a pretty large 3-bet, but you are deep, so maybe calling is fine. I would not have any problem simply folding either though. Its not like, he is giving himself a good price, if he is bluffing.

Flop
Standard check to the preflop 3-bettor.

Turn
If you think, his range is mostly broadways, that missed this board, then betting to deny equity can make some sense. I might go a little bit larger though to actually get him to fold those hands and not have to play the river out of position. His raise is definitely weird, because what hands can he even have, that are strong enough to raise now, but would not have bet the flop? Its smells like a bullshit bluff, so I can see getting sticky here, and then I would pretty much also call on any river card, thats not terrible like an ace.

River
If I called on the turn, then I already planned to call on a low card like this.

 

[Batarang96]

You have to be right >43.29% of the time for this call to be break-even. If you think that you meet that criterion, then call.

$500/($500+$655) = $500/$1155 = .4329 = 43.29%

Do you think that he would have checked the flop if he didn't have a Set? He probably doesn't have a Set. Sets are damned hard to make. I think that he has a Full House, or nothing.

 

[fundiver199]

You have to be right >43.29% of the time for this call to be break-even. If you think that you meet that criterion, then call.

$500/($500+$655) = $500/$1155 = .4329 = 43.29%

Do you think that he would have checked the flop if he didn't have a Set? He probably doesn't have a Set. Sets are damned hard to make. I think that he has a Full House, or nothing.

The math is incorrect. Hero is calling $500 to win a pot of $655 + 2 x $500 = $1.655. Therefore Hero only need to be good 500 / 1.655 = 30,2% of the time. Not that this really matter though, because against some opponents Hero will be good 90% of the time, and against others it might be 10% of the time. Very few people are probably balanced, when they take a weird line like this, and since its live poker, reads should not be neglected.

 

[Batarang96]

Lol! Shoot youre right!

It’s 500/500+500+655 = 30%

And yeah it does matter. You have to be right 30% of the time to break even. No if ands or buts.

The math is incorrect. Hero is calling $500 to win a pot of $655 + 2 x $500 = $1.655. Therefore Hero only need to be good 500 / 1.655 = 30,2% of the time. Not that this really matter though, because against some opponents Hero will be good 90% of the time, and against others it might be 10% of the time. Very few people are probably balanced, when they take a weird line like this, and since its live poker, reads should not be neglected.

 

[Jamalex]

I don't play live but my standard adjustment facing loose-passive recreational players is to check back more with the lower end of marginal hands, over-fold slightly when facing aggression, and value bet more with good to nutted hands.

With 66 on this dry low texture which basically misses both your ranges you have some decent showdown value. I also expect your fold equity to be lower against this player. Therefore I like taking a check/call line on the turn, and with this runout check/fold on the river (against two streets of aggression).

As played, 66 is probably among the worst bluff catchers in your range. Against a balanced player I suspect you're indifferent between calling and folding and randomising this decision is best. If live translates to online, loose-passive players under bluff (i.e. their range is value heavy) most spots and 66 would be one of the first hands to consider as an exploitative fold both facing the turn raise and the river bet.

Vs the loose/passive type of player I agree with you completely. I don't believe this player was actually that passive but I did not convey that to you at all so that's neither here nor thereMy decision to bet the turn small was actually to try and induce a bluff from him or a light call from Ax overcard type hands. Vs a more balanced player I actually do like 66 and more specifically 55 as a call over 77 88 or even like JJ because I block 56s (55's also block A5s) which would river a straight on this runnout. Although a balanced player would likely continue betting this flop with hands like A5s and 56s anyways as semibluffs.

 

[Jamalex]

Preflop
Its a pretty large 3-bet, but you are deep, so maybe calling is fine. I would not have any problem simply folding either though. Its not like, he is giving himself a good price, if he is bluffing.

Flop
Standard check to the preflop 3-bettor.

Turn
If you think, his range is mostly broadways, that missed this board, then betting to deny equity can make some sense. I might go a little bit larger though to actually get him to fold those hands and not have to play the river out of position. His raise is definitely weird, because what hands can he even have, that are strong enough to raise now, but would not have bet the flop? Its smells like a bullshit bluff, so I can see getting sticky here, and then I would pretty much also call on any river card, thats not terrible like an ace.

River
If I called on the turn, then I already planned to call on a low card like this.

We pretty much had the same thoughts. I don't believe this player was the type to balance his flop check with anything other then overcards (Ax hands exclusively besides A9) that are looking to just get to showdown. My turn bet was a little small on purpose because I was looking to induce a raise or get a call from the Ax I put him on. This was purely exploitative vs this player and not something I would usually do. His raise made me think he could have turned hearts or had a hand like A5s but it just screamed bluff/semibluff in my mind at best. While the river was not the best card I think at this point he has complete air or A5s. I did think about this spot for a few minutes in the actual hand before making my decision but looking at it after the fact it's a pretty easy river snap call in my opinion.

 

[fundiver199]

While the river was not the best card I think at this point he has complete air or A5s.

I guess, there could also be a few combos like 98s, T9s or J9s, that checked the flop for pot control and raised the turn for value. But there are not many of those, and I think, boats are extremely unlikely. 44 and 22 would almost always be called as a setmine preflop rather than 3-bet, so I strongly discount those. I also discount overpairs, because it would be really weird for these to check back flop and then raise turn, when the board has paired making trips possible. So there are very few value combos, that makes sense, but a ton of combos, that missed the board completely and could potentially be turned into a bluff.

 

[loafaBREAD]

If he is a loose-fun player, I think this play is AA or air. I can't even see this kind of player checking 9x back on the flop.

Interesting you said your small turn bet was to induce a raise- it sounds like you had a plan all along and stuck to it! I'd bet 1/3 with everything I'm betting vs a flop check from V. Most of my combos are betting for a mix of value and protection, so we want calls from his AQ and AK when we have something like TT.

With my logic, it is better to call river with A4s than 66 since we block his value. I may even fold turn to that size raise unless I knew this guy can't help but raise a small bet. So I agree with Hermus here.

Interested to see results. :icon_sant