$600 NLHE Full Ring: 2/5 Live, Flopped set OOP 3 ways, line check

C

c0rnBr34d

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 6, 2019
Total posts
991
Chips
1
Maybe two hours in so reads aren't rock solid but here's where we think we stand.

V1 OTB $285 MAG tight and not very aggressive.

V2 CO covers MAG looser with medium aggression factor. Limps too much pre from all positions. Seems to understand range advantage and has raised and outplayed some players post.

Hero BB $650 MAG tight aggressive pre, can be a bit passive and trappy post.

OTTH: 3 limps to V1 OTB to raises to $30, Hero calls from BB to set mine with 5s5c assuming one of the limpers who covers will also call. EP limper calls, V2 calls. 4 to the flop.

Flop ($120): As Kc 5h

Bingo! Hero x, EP x, V2 donk leads lol small for $25. V1 calls. Board seems super dry here is anyone x/r? If there was a flush draw or straight draw I'd go for it but it feels like no one is overly interested and there really aren't any bad turn cards so we x. EP folds.

Turn ($195): As Kc 5h Ah
Hero x, V2 x, V1 $60. Given V1s tight / fit or fold play and small sizing we put him on KK+, Ax, all of which should continue OTR. Given his short stack we decide to flat again to try and keep V2 in. V2 folds.

River ($315): As Kc 5h Ah 9d
Hero x, V1 $170 with $105 behind. Hero? This may be a trivial jam but V1 is on the nitty side. Even OTB I'm not sure how much AJ he has. We are behind 10 combos of KK+, AK. We are beating 8 combos of AQ. I suspect he may check back some of his AJ- here but it's impossible to know after only 2 hours of play. If we give him all the AQ and even half the AJ combos we are ahead of 12 combos and losing to 10. Is it criminal to just flat here when it's close to 50/50 or do we just always jam? Did we play it too slow on the flop and turn to try and extract more value from V2?
 
G

gustav197poker

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
May 2, 2019
Total posts
1,292
Awards
1
Chips
107
The pre-flop, flop y turn seems well played.
The table king protects you 85% of the time. Against the other negative possibilities: AK; KK and 9-9 you have a 75% negative joint probability. That means you need at least 10% equity to make your x-jam profitable on the river. It is true that it is a situation almost 50/50, but if you consider that v1 has the nuts you could protect your calling range. Otherwise x-jam on the river is the other tempting option.
Greetings.
 
C

c0rnBr34d

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 6, 2019
Total posts
991
Chips
1
For what it's worth I don't think this V gets the river with 99 here almost ever. I just don't see this V floating a flop donk lead with two over cards there in a multi way pot. Maybe heads up, but not 4 ways. Thanks for the input.
 
G

gustav197poker

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
May 2, 2019
Total posts
1,292
Awards
1
Chips
107
For what it's worth I don't think this V gets the river with 99 here almost ever. I just don't see this V floating a flop donk lead with two over cards there in a multi way pot. Maybe heads up, but not 4 ways. Thanks for the input.

So without 9-9 in the v1 range we now need 18% equity in the river, so that our x-c or x-jam line is profitable in this spot. The variation is not much and the final decision depends on how tight we believe that this villain can become. Regards.
 
C

c0rnBr34d

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 6, 2019
Total posts
991
Chips
1
So without 9-9 in the v1 range we now need 18% equity in the river, so that our x-c or x-jam line is profitable in this spot. The variation is not much and the final decision depends on how tight we believe that this villain can become. Regards.
It seems counter intuitive that we need more equity when our Vs value range is smaller. Can you share your equity calculation logic?
 
G

gustav197poker

Legend
Bronze Level
Joined
May 2, 2019
Total posts
1,292
Awards
1
Chips
107
It seems counter intuitive that we need more equity when our Vs value range is smaller. Can you share your equity calculation logic?




It's hard to explain this, but I'll do my best:
The combinations of lower denomination that are below the table king, represent 85% (in favor of our rank).
Considering AK and KK in the range of the villain + our value structure (5-5): we have 2 chances that defeat us / 3 possibilities in total = 2/3 = 67% (-)
Net effect, favorable for our range: 85% - 67% = 18%
 
F

fundiver199

Legend
Loyaler
Joined
Jun 3, 2019
Total posts
13,261
Awards
1
Chips
252
I am playing this faster. Small check-raise on the flop, when they bet this small, bet turn, jam river, be done. There are a bunch of gutshots on the flop, another A will create better full houses, and someone can backdoor into a flush. So I dont think, protection is completely irrelevant here. Its not like, if flop was A55, and we flop quads. As played I am jamming the river. I think, he would mostly have played a little faster, if he had a better boat, so this does smell more like trips to me.
 
Q

quant1986

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 22, 2018
Total posts
599
Awards
1
Chips
2
I would have check raised the turn and jam river given stack size.

It is a bit tricky if villain is 100-150BB deep, if I think villain would GII with AQ, then would play for stack by check raising flop. Else would take a more passive line to minimize losses on "coolers" because hero has no AA/AK/99. Personally I would have snap-folded AQ to someone check-called flop/turn but and did a check raise on the river for run out like this which favours preflop aggressor.
 
C

c0rnBr34d

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 6, 2019
Total posts
991
Chips
1
I got the stack sizes wrong too, bet sizes are correct so if you add it up V1 had about $390.
 
hackmeplz

hackmeplz

Sleep Faster
Silver Level
Joined
May 1, 2012
Total posts
2,282
Awards
1
Chips
2
It's live so I get it but I doubt the preflop call is going to be profitable long-term. This is a pretty good example of why, you just don't get stacks very often. Definitely just folding pre.
 
C

c0rnBr34d

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 6, 2019
Total posts
991
Chips
1
It's live so I get it but I doubt the preflop call is going to be profitable long-term. This is a pretty good example of why, you just don't get stacks very often. Definitely just folding pre.
The larger stack folded but the $390 stack is all but in already. Online I tend to agree, live if we have 20:1 stack to bet ratio set mining is profitable from any position IME.
 
hackmeplz

hackmeplz

Sleep Faster
Silver Level
Joined
May 1, 2012
Total posts
2,282
Awards
1
Chips
2
The larger stack folded but the $390 stack is all but in already. Online I tend to agree, live if we have 20:1 stack to bet ratio set mining is profitable from any position IME.


Isn't 20:1 the bare minimum we need if we assume we get paid 100%? I know we make a set like 11% but we don't always win when we make a set especially against multiple opponents who may also be set mining or else playing hands where they can make flushes/straights.

As to this specific, obviously it depends on the game/villain, but I've played a good chunk of 2/5 against people similar to how you described, and my experience has generally been they're the most likely to fold AA face up postflop even though their SPR was like 10. For that reason I'm all about flatting SC-type hands and getting aggressive on a lot of boards but I'm just not a fan of pairs oop that pretty much have 0 equity when we don't make a set. Like I said I can't say I've never called in that spot since it's live and folding there means you might not play a hand for another hour (and at worst it's a few bucks negative in ev?), but I'm not convinced that the best play to maximize profits is anything but fold there.
 
C

c0rnBr34d

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
May 6, 2019
Total posts
991
Chips
1
Isn't 20:1 the bare minimum we need if we assume we get paid 100%? I know we make a set like 11% but we don't always win when we make a set especially against multiple opponents who may also be set mining or else playing hands where they can make flushes/straights.

As to this specific, obviously it depends on the game/villain, but I've played a good chunk of 2/5 against people similar to how you described, and my experience has generally been they're the most likely to fold AA face up postflop even though their SPR was like 10. For that reason I'm all about flatting SC-type hands and getting aggressive on a lot of boards but I'm just not a fan of pairs oop that pretty much have 0 equity when we don't make a set. Like I said I can't say I've never called in that spot since it's live and folding there means you might not play a hand for another hour (and at worst it's a few bucks negative in ev?), but I'm not convinced that the best play to maximize profits is anything but fold there.
Set mining thresholds differ depending on who you ask and as you've alluded to, it's probably too complex and V dependent to mathematically model with exact precision. In my opinion set mining is far superior to trying to make flushes and straights with suited connectors for several reasons. I won't get into detail but it's MUCH easier to flop a set than a flush or a straight. Second, flush draws are often sniffed out and people tend to give less credit to aggression on board textures where we are aggressively playing our flush or straight draw. Sets are much harder to detect if we don't go crazy with them. Also, if everyone is really folding AA face up then we would all be printing money. This is an exaggeration but obviously there is some truth to it, some Vs will be able to get away from overpairs depending on reads and action and board texture. They wont always have an over pair, they wont always have any pair, so we wont always play for stacks. But that's why we aren't set mining with 8:1 bet to stack ratio. Although I don't have statistical data to prove it, in my experience I believe I've been quite profitable using the 20:1 threshold. To me many of your concerns are additional reasons to set mine. Because we are still winning decent sized pots where we would have otherwise folded pre even when we don't get the whole stack. And we are still easily getting away for 3-6 BB when we miss. Low risk, high reward. If we are hand reading at a decent level we will be able to get away from flush and straight boards just like some Vs get away from AA. Running into set over set scenarios is less than 1%. Also sets can still improve to boats or quads where straights and flushes are capped.
 
G

GWU73

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 18, 2012
Total posts
785
Chips
0
I'm check raising flop on the rare occasion I don't donk overbet the flop.
 
Organize a Home Poker Game
Top